Why Daesh is still not a spent force despite facing terminal decline in Iraq

Special Why Daesh is still not a spent force despite facing terminal decline in Iraq
Members of the Iraqi Counter-Terrorism Service cheer as they carry upside-down the black flag of Daesh, with the destroyed Al-Nuri mosque seen in the background, in the Old City of Mosul on July 2, 2017. (AFP)
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Updated 22 March 2023
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Why Daesh is still not a spent force despite facing terminal decline in Iraq

Why Daesh is still not a spent force despite facing terminal decline in Iraq
  • Unable to attract new recruits or mount significant attacks, analysts say the group is a spent force in Iraq
  • Western military leaders fear Daesh prisoners held in Syria could pose threat as an ‘army in detention’

IRBIL, KURDISTAN: Having once controlled roughly a third of the country at the height of its power, including several major cities and oilfields, there are now growing signs that what remains of the Daesh terrorist organization in Iraq is in terminal decline.

Unable to attract new recruits to shore up its dwindling numbers, nor able to mount significant offensive operations, the group that had in 2014 proclaimed its own “caliphate” today looks like a spent force — in Iraq at least.

On March 12, Iraqi General Qais Al-Mohamadawi revealed that Daesh has about 500 active militants remaining in the country. However, he stressed that they are confined to remote desert areas and mountains and have lost their “ability to attract new recruits.”

The following day, the US-led coalition tweeted that Daesh networks “remain under intense pressure,” with the Iraqi Security Forces and the Kurdish Peshmerga having “removed from the battlefield at least 55” of the militants in February alone. 

Joel Wing, author of the “Musings on Iraq” blog and who tracks security incidents in Iraq attributed to Daesh, recently wrote that recorded incidents from the start of March are a reminder that Daesh is in its “death throes in Iraq” and “remains barely active in the country.”

Only three incidents were attributed to Daesh in the first week of March, down from eight in the last week of February. Furthermore, since the start of 2023, eight out of nine weeks have witnessed security incidents in the single digits, which Wing says continues a trend that began in 2022, when the majority of weeks saw fewer than ten attacks. 




An Iraqi fighter flashes the sign for victory on top of an armed vehicle in the village of Albu Ajil, Tikrit, on March 8, 2015, during a military operation to regain control of the Tikrit area from Daesh militants. (AFP)

“I don’t see a Daesh revival any time soon,” Wing told Arab News, using another name for Daesh. “They’ve had five years to recover from their defeat in Mosul and all signs point to the group getting weaker, not stronger.”

Mosul is Iraq’s second city and the largest urban center the group annexed into its self-styled caliphate, which, at the height of its power in the mid-2010s, covered about one-third of Iraq and one-third of Syria. 

Iraqi forces recaptured Mosul with the support of the US-led coalition in July 2017 after months of intense fighting. Iraq declared victory over the group the following December. 

Having lost its territorial caliphate, Daesh mounted an insurgency from rural and mountainous redoubts. For years, there were fears that the group had reverted to its pre-2014 status as an insurgent threat and could one day retake significant swathes of territory. 

It now seems that dire prospect is a remote one.

“They haven’t been able to recruit many new Iraqis to their cause,” Wing said. “Their main activities appear to be trying to smuggle members and their families from Syria into Iraq and protecting the rural areas they control. There are hardly any offensive operations and they are completely absent from Iraq’s urban centers.”

And while Daesh could feasibly continue in this state for years to come, since there are few people and a minimal government presence in the areas where they operate, Wing says that they have “little to no effect upon Iraq anymore.”

Michael Knights, the Jill and Jay Bernstein Fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, sees two different scenarios potentially unfolding. 

“If current trends continue, Daesh is headed in the same direction as Algeria’s terrorist groups — disintegration into criminal gangs, inability to destabilize the country, and occasional terrorist outrages that are easy to quickly forget,” he told Arab News, using another acronym for Daesh. 

“The question is whether — as in 2011-2014 — the Iraqi government will politicize the security forces and adopt a sectarian agenda, thus breathing life back into Daesh,” he said. 

The government of former prime minister Nouri Al-Maliki adopted just such an agenda after the US withdrew the last of its troops from Iraq in 2011. Consequently, when Daesh entered Mosul in June 2014, the ISF infamously did not fight, despite having vastly superior numbers. 




The destroyed Al-Nuri mosque in the Old City of Mosul. (AFP)

Daesh invaded northern Iraq in 2014 after gaining a sizable foothold in Syria amid the chaos of that country’s brutal civil war. If the security situation in eastern Syria again deteriorates, there are fears this could reenergize diminished Daesh remnants in Iraq. 

After visiting prisons holding thousands of Daesh militants in northeast Syria earlier this month, General Michael Kurilla, head of the US military’s Central Command, CENTCOM, warned of a “looming threat” posed by these detainees.  

“Between those detained in Syria and Iraq, it is a veritable ‘ISIS army in detention,’” he said in a CENTCOM statement. “If freed, this group would pose a great threat regionally and beyond.”

The Al-Hol camp in eastern Syria also houses tens of thousands of the relatives of alleged Daesh militants, roughly half of whom are Iraqi citizens. 

In January 2022, Daesh detainees in Ghwayran prison in the northeast Syrian city of Hasakah rioted in coordination with an external attempt to free them, igniting 10 days of bitter fighting with Kurdish-led security forces. Daesh reportedly had similar plots for Al-Hol. 

“Sneaking people out of Al-Hol and getting them into Iraq is a major priority because they haven’t been able to bring many new people to their cause in Iraq,” said Wing. “So they’re relying upon getting their current members out of the Syrian camp to try to bolster their numbers, but it hasn’t added to their capabilities at all.”

Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at the risk intelligence company RANE, emphasizes the importance of recalling the context in which Daesh initially emerged to “better understand the conditions that would allow it to return in the future.”

“ISIS emerged in a power vacuum, one first caused by the US invasion of Iraq and then the Syrian civil war that began in 2011,” Bohl told Arab News. “It was best able to grow and exploit local grievances for its radical agenda when its rivals were split and when it was not the focus of a major power, like the US, Turkiye, or Russia.

“Today, Iraq, despite deep political dysfunction and violence, is not nearly as divided as it was during the run-up to the Daesh blitz in 2014 into Iraq. Syria’s civil war has stabilized, leaving little room for them to grow there as well.”

Nevertheless, completely eradicating a group such as Daesh will remain a difficult, if not impossible, task for Iraqi authorities. 

“There will always be online recruitment and localized grievances that can turn into small cells or radicalized individual attackers,” Bohl said. “Iraq’s social contract also remains fractured, and until there is a strong, sustained governing consensus, radicalism of all stripes will find a home there.”




“Between those detained in Syria and Iraq it is a veritable ‘ISIS army in detention,’” said Gen. Michael Kurilla, Commander of US Central Command. (Supplied)

While he believes Syria is the most likely place from which Daesh can make a resurgence in the region, there would first have to be a strategic shift, such as a US withdrawal or some power vacuum caused by Damascus forcibly reestablishing its rule over the area. 

“Under those conditions, it would become possible for Daesh to retake some initiative in that area and use Syria’s northeast to attack Iraq,” he said. 

“However, it shouldn’t be entirely ruled out that Daesh could resurge in Iraq, particularly if political problems there grow so severe that it reignites sectarian war. 

“Under those (more remote) circumstances, Daesh would once again have a shot at restoring territorial control within Iraq, even if Syria remained stable.”

Knights also stresses that any chance of Daesh making a successful resurgence in Iraq depends on Baghdad’s management of its security forces. 

“Syria is like a freezer in which Daesh can hibernate, waiting for it to experience a springtime in Iraq,” he said. “If the Iraqi government mismanages the security file, then a cross-border pollination could start again.”

 


Emirati and Malaysian trade ministers discuss boosting economic ties

Emirati and Malaysian trade ministers discuss boosting economic ties
Updated 6 sec ago
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Emirati and Malaysian trade ministers discuss boosting economic ties

Emirati and Malaysian trade ministers discuss boosting economic ties
  • Officials reviewed status of negotiations for a UAE-Malaysia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement
  • UAE is Malaysia’s second-largest commercial partner in the Middle East

LONDON: Thani Al-Zeyoudi, the Emirati minister of state for foreign trade, and Tengku Zafrul Aziz, the Malaysian minister of investment, trade and industry, discussed ways boost trade and investment ties between their countries. Their meeting took place during a visit to the UAE by a delegation of senior trade officials from Malaysia.

During the talks, Al-Zeyoudi praised the existing strong relations between the nations and reaffirmed the UAE’s commitment to expanding the opportunities available to the business communities in both, the Emirates News Agency reported on Thursday.

They also reviewed the status of negotiations to develop a UAE-Malaysia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement. The meeting was the second between the ministers since discussions about the agreement began during a visit by Abu Dhabi’s crown prince, Sheikh Khaled bin Mohammed, to Kuala Lumpur in May.

Their first meeting took place in Jakarta during the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Business and Investment Summit in early September, and the talks reflect the UAE’s desire to strengthen its ties with Malaysia and the wider ASEAN bloc, officials said.

“Malaysia is a valued partner for the UAE in an increasingly important region, one which shares our vision of leveraging global trade to accelerate growth and diversify the economy,” Al-Zeyoudi said.

“Malaysia’s support for open, rules-based trade, transparent dispute-resolution mechanisms and a greater voice for the developing world in trade policy will help deliver a conference of lasting impact,” he added.

Tengku Zafrul said: “We are keen to bolster our ties with the UAE, a nation that continues to gain importance as a strategic trading partner for Malaysia.

“Situated at the crossroads between East and West, the UAE offers immense opportunities for our exporters and their efforts to expand into global markets.”

The ministers commended recent growth in non-oil bilateral trade, which reached a total value of more than $2.226 billion during the first half of 2023. They also expressed the aim of increasing foreign direct investment.

The UAE is Malaysia’s second-largest commercial partner in the Middle East, accounting for 32 percent of its total trade with Arab countries.


 

 

 


US imposes fresh round of sanctions over instability in Sudan

US imposes fresh round of sanctions over instability in Sudan
Updated 23 min 39 sec ago
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US imposes fresh round of sanctions over instability in Sudan

US imposes fresh round of sanctions over instability in Sudan
  • Sanctions target former Sudanese official and two companies, including one based in Russia

WASHINGTON: The United States on Thursday imposed sanctions on a former Sudanese official and two companies, including one based in Russia, that it accused of exacerbating instability in Sudan as fighting has killed thousands and displaced millions of civilians.
The action is the latest round of sanctions imposed by Washington after war between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) broke out in mid-April over plans for a political transition and the integration of the RSF into the army, four years after long-time ruler Omar Al-Bashir was overthrown in a popular uprising.
“Today’s action holds accountable those who have undercut efforts to find a peaceful, democratic solution in Sudan,” the Treasury Department’s Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, Brian Nelson, said in a statement.
“We will continue to target actors perpetuating this conflict for personal gain.”
The Treasury said it targeted Ali Karti, the foreign minister under Bashir, and became leader of the Sudanese Islamic Movement after Bashir was toppled in 2019.
He is a prominent figure among loyalists and veterans of Bashir’s rule who have maneuvered to protect their interests and regained some leverage after a 2021 coup by the army and the RSF.
Also hit with sanctions was GSK Advance Company, a Sudan-based company the Treasury said has been used as a procurement channel for the RSF.
GSK worked with Russia-based military supply company Aviatrade, also targeted on Thursday, to arrange the procurement of parts and supplies, as well as training, for drones previously purchased by the RSF, the Treasury said.


Syrian beekeepers battle both war and climate change

Syrian beekeepers battle both war and climate change
Updated 28 September 2023
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Syrian beekeepers battle both war and climate change

Syrian beekeepers battle both war and climate change
  • Rankus was once renowned for its honey, but was hard hit by fighting between government forces and rebels
  • Damiriya can barely afford to tend to his hives, donated by the International Committee for the Red Cross (ICRC) to help Syrian beekeepers

RANKUS, Syria: Syrian beekeeper Ibrahim Damiriya struggles to produce honey from his hives on parched land near the capital Damascus after years of war, economic collapse and worsening climate change impacts.
“The war bled us dry. We could barely keep our beekeeping business afloat, and then the insane weather made things worse,” the 62-year-old in a beekeeping suit told AFP as he examined meagre honey stocks inside the hives.
Before Syria’s conflict erupted in 2011, Damiriya owned 110 hives in Rankus, a village near Damascus that was once filled with apple orchards.
But now a combination of fighting, severe drought and a gruelling economic crisis have left him with a mere 40 hives in semi-arid lands, decimating his honey yield.
Rankus was once renowned for its honey, but was hard hit by fighting between government forces and rebels that caused widespread destruction, pushing many residents to flee.
Damiriya can barely afford to tend to his hives, donated by the International Committee for the Red Cross (ICRC) to help Syrian beekeepers.
“If we keep suffering from climate change and rising prices, I might have to abandon my profession,” Damiriya said with a sigh.
Since 2011, Syria’s war has killed more than half a million people and caused an acute economic crisis, exacerbated by severe Western sanctions.
Recent years have also battered Syria with heatwaves, low rainfall and more forest fires.
A 2019 United Nations report found that fighting had practically wiped out hives, with bombs contaminating the environment and pesticide misuse and a proliferation of parasites speeding up their decline.
Syria used to be home to 635,000 hives before the war, but their numbers had dwindled to about 150,000 at the height of the conflict in 2016, said Iyad Daaboul, the Damascus-based president of the Arab Beekeepers Union.
Today that number has risen back up to 400,000, he said. However, the hives yield only 1,500 tons of honey per year — half of the country’s pre-war production.
Unusually cold springs and drought have had an adverse effect on the flowers that bees feed on.
“Extreme weather conditions have greatly affected bees, especially during spring — the most important time in their life cycle,” said Daaboul.
The number of beekeepers has nearly halved from 32,000 before the war to around 18,000 today, he said.
Another threat to the bees is the forest fires which have become more common as temperatures rise.
Fires “have destroyed more than 1,000 hives on Syria’s coastal mountains and stripped bees of large foraging areas,” Daaboul said.
Rising temperatures and desertification have taken a toll on Syria’s greenery, destroying many of the plants on whose flowers the bees feed and squeezing the once-thriving agriculture sector.
Damascus ICRC spokesperson Suhair Zakkout told AFP that “Syria’s agricultural production has fallen by approximately 50 percent over the last 10 years” because of war and climate change.
Despite being one of the countries most badly affected by global warming, Syria has lacked the funds it needs to tackle environmental issues, Zakkout said.
Climate change has devastated farmer Ziad Rankusi’s apple orchards, which have also been greatly thinned by illegal logging as people struggle to keep warm during the winter amid recurrent fuel shortages.
Rankusi, who is in his 50s, used to tend more than 1,000 trees on his land, but just 400 survive, and they are drying out in the heat.
“For about five years, we have had unprecedented droughts and desertification, and this year the spring was unusually cold. The fruit perished,” said the farmer.
“When trees and flowers disappear, bees can no longer feed. They either migrate or die.”


World Court to hear Syria torture claims on Oct. 10-11

World Court to hear Syria torture claims on Oct. 10-11
Updated 28 September 2023
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World Court to hear Syria torture claims on Oct. 10-11

World Court to hear Syria torture claims on Oct. 10-11
  • The hearing at the Peace Palace will mark the first time an international court has looked at alleged abuses committed in Syria during 12 years of conflict

AMSTERDAM: The World Court will hear on Oct. 10 and 11 a request by the Netherlands and Canada that it orders Syria to cease all acts of torture and arbitrary detention, as part of a case alleging the country has breached a UN anti-torture treaty.
The hearing at the Peace Palace, the court’s seat in The Hague, will mark the first time an international court has looked at alleged abuses committed in Syria during 12 years of conflict.
Syria’s government and President Bashar Assad have rejected accusations of torture and extrajudicial killings in a war that the United Nations has said claimed hundreds of thousands of lives.


Iraq’s prime minister visits wedding fire victims as 2 more people die from their injuries

Iraq’s prime minister visits wedding fire victims as 2 more people die from their injuries
Updated 28 September 2023
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Iraq’s prime minister visits wedding fire victims as 2 more people die from their injuries

Iraq’s prime minister visits wedding fire victims as 2 more people die from their injuries
  • Around 250 panicked guests surged for the exits on Tuesday night in the Haitham Royal Wedding Hall in the predominantly Christian area of Hamdaniya near Mosul
BAGHDAD: Iraq’s prime minister on Thursday visited injured patients and the families of victims in northern Iraq days after a deadly wedding fire killed around 100 people, as two more people died from their injuries.
Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani arrived in Nineveh province early Thursday with a delegation of ministers and security officials, state television reported. He met with the wounded and family members of victims at Hamdaniyah Hospital and Al-Jumhoori Hospital.
He later visited the Syriac Catholic Mar Behnam Monastery to express his condolences to victims.
A health official, speaking on condition of anonymity in line with regulations, told The Associated Press that two critically burned victims — a 30-year-old woman and a 4-year-old child — died from their injuries.
Around 250 panicked guests surged for the exits on Tuesday night in the Haitham Royal Wedding Hall in the predominantly Christian area of Hamdaniya near Mosul after the ceiling panels above a pyrotechnic machine burst into flames.
Authorities said around 100 people died in the incident, and the death toll is expected to rise with at least 100 other people still injured, many of them critically burned.
The venue’s owners have been accused of violating safety protocols.
The Mosul Municipality on Wednesday called for the closure of hotels, restaurants, and other venues that don’t have safety approvals or have ignored warnings.
Funeral processions continued Thursday at the Saint Behnam Syriac Catholic Church. A video circulating on Iraqi media and social media showed the bride and groom among the crowd mourning.
The Interior Ministry said highly flammable building materials contributed to the disaster and accused the owners of violating safety and security protocols. The tragedy was the latest to hit Iraq’s Christian minority, which has dwindled to a fraction of its former size over the past decade.
A security official told the AP that one of the venue’s owners and 13 workers and employees are currently under investigation. The official said that negligence caused the incident and that the government is preparing to compensate survivors and the families of victims. He speak on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the press.
A government spokesperson said the authorities will conduct strict inspections of hotels, schools, restaurants and event venues to make sure they are complying with safety standards.
One owner of the venue, Chonny Suleiman Naboo, told The Associated Press that an electrical fault caused the fire and denied that they had neglected safety procedures.