Why Daesh is still not a spent force despite facing terminal decline in Iraq

Special Why Daesh is still not a spent force despite facing terminal decline in Iraq
Members of the Iraqi Counter-Terrorism Service cheer as they carry upside-down the black flag of Daesh, with the destroyed Al-Nuri mosque seen in the background, in the Old City of Mosul on July 2, 2017. (AFP)
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Updated 22 March 2023

Why Daesh is still not a spent force despite facing terminal decline in Iraq

Why Daesh is still not a spent force despite facing terminal decline in Iraq
  • Unable to attract new recruits or mount significant attacks, analysts say the group is a spent force in Iraq
  • Western military leaders fear Daesh prisoners held in Syria could pose threat as an ‘army in detention’

IRBIL, KURDISTAN: Having once controlled roughly a third of the country at the height of its power, including several major cities and oilfields, there are now growing signs that what remains of the Daesh terrorist organization in Iraq is in terminal decline.

Unable to attract new recruits to shore up its dwindling numbers, nor able to mount significant offensive operations, the group that had in 2014 proclaimed its own “caliphate” today looks like a spent force — in Iraq at least.

On March 12, Iraqi General Qais Al-Mohamadawi revealed that Daesh has about 500 active militants remaining in the country. However, he stressed that they are confined to remote desert areas and mountains and have lost their “ability to attract new recruits.”

The following day, the US-led coalition tweeted that Daesh networks “remain under intense pressure,” with the Iraqi Security Forces and the Kurdish Peshmerga having “removed from the battlefield at least 55” of the militants in February alone. 

Joel Wing, author of the “Musings on Iraq” blog and who tracks security incidents in Iraq attributed to Daesh, recently wrote that recorded incidents from the start of March are a reminder that Daesh is in its “death throes in Iraq” and “remains barely active in the country.”

Only three incidents were attributed to Daesh in the first week of March, down from eight in the last week of February. Furthermore, since the start of 2023, eight out of nine weeks have witnessed security incidents in the single digits, which Wing says continues a trend that began in 2022, when the majority of weeks saw fewer than ten attacks. 




An Iraqi fighter flashes the sign for victory on top of an armed vehicle in the village of Albu Ajil, Tikrit, on March 8, 2015, during a military operation to regain control of the Tikrit area from Daesh militants. (AFP)

“I don’t see a Daesh revival any time soon,” Wing told Arab News, using another name for Daesh. “They’ve had five years to recover from their defeat in Mosul and all signs point to the group getting weaker, not stronger.”

Mosul is Iraq’s second city and the largest urban center the group annexed into its self-styled caliphate, which, at the height of its power in the mid-2010s, covered about one-third of Iraq and one-third of Syria. 

Iraqi forces recaptured Mosul with the support of the US-led coalition in July 2017 after months of intense fighting. Iraq declared victory over the group the following December. 

Having lost its territorial caliphate, Daesh mounted an insurgency from rural and mountainous redoubts. For years, there were fears that the group had reverted to its pre-2014 status as an insurgent threat and could one day retake significant swathes of territory. 

It now seems that dire prospect is a remote one.

“They haven’t been able to recruit many new Iraqis to their cause,” Wing said. “Their main activities appear to be trying to smuggle members and their families from Syria into Iraq and protecting the rural areas they control. There are hardly any offensive operations and they are completely absent from Iraq’s urban centers.”

And while Daesh could feasibly continue in this state for years to come, since there are few people and a minimal government presence in the areas where they operate, Wing says that they have “little to no effect upon Iraq anymore.”

Michael Knights, the Jill and Jay Bernstein Fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, sees two different scenarios potentially unfolding. 

“If current trends continue, Daesh is headed in the same direction as Algeria’s terrorist groups — disintegration into criminal gangs, inability to destabilize the country, and occasional terrorist outrages that are easy to quickly forget,” he told Arab News, using another acronym for Daesh. 

“The question is whether — as in 2011-2014 — the Iraqi government will politicize the security forces and adopt a sectarian agenda, thus breathing life back into Daesh,” he said. 

The government of former prime minister Nouri Al-Maliki adopted just such an agenda after the US withdrew the last of its troops from Iraq in 2011. Consequently, when Daesh entered Mosul in June 2014, the ISF infamously did not fight, despite having vastly superior numbers. 




The destroyed Al-Nuri mosque in the Old City of Mosul. (AFP)

Daesh invaded northern Iraq in 2014 after gaining a sizable foothold in Syria amid the chaos of that country’s brutal civil war. If the security situation in eastern Syria again deteriorates, there are fears this could reenergize diminished Daesh remnants in Iraq. 

After visiting prisons holding thousands of Daesh militants in northeast Syria earlier this month, General Michael Kurilla, head of the US military’s Central Command, CENTCOM, warned of a “looming threat” posed by these detainees.  

“Between those detained in Syria and Iraq, it is a veritable ‘ISIS army in detention,’” he said in a CENTCOM statement. “If freed, this group would pose a great threat regionally and beyond.”

The Al-Hol camp in eastern Syria also houses tens of thousands of the relatives of alleged Daesh militants, roughly half of whom are Iraqi citizens. 

In January 2022, Daesh detainees in Ghwayran prison in the northeast Syrian city of Hasakah rioted in coordination with an external attempt to free them, igniting 10 days of bitter fighting with Kurdish-led security forces. Daesh reportedly had similar plots for Al-Hol. 

“Sneaking people out of Al-Hol and getting them into Iraq is a major priority because they haven’t been able to bring many new people to their cause in Iraq,” said Wing. “So they’re relying upon getting their current members out of the Syrian camp to try to bolster their numbers, but it hasn’t added to their capabilities at all.”

Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at the risk intelligence company RANE, emphasizes the importance of recalling the context in which Daesh initially emerged to “better understand the conditions that would allow it to return in the future.”

“ISIS emerged in a power vacuum, one first caused by the US invasion of Iraq and then the Syrian civil war that began in 2011,” Bohl told Arab News. “It was best able to grow and exploit local grievances for its radical agenda when its rivals were split and when it was not the focus of a major power, like the US, Turkiye, or Russia.

“Today, Iraq, despite deep political dysfunction and violence, is not nearly as divided as it was during the run-up to the Daesh blitz in 2014 into Iraq. Syria’s civil war has stabilized, leaving little room for them to grow there as well.”

Nevertheless, completely eradicating a group such as Daesh will remain a difficult, if not impossible, task for Iraqi authorities. 

“There will always be online recruitment and localized grievances that can turn into small cells or radicalized individual attackers,” Bohl said. “Iraq’s social contract also remains fractured, and until there is a strong, sustained governing consensus, radicalism of all stripes will find a home there.”




“Between those detained in Syria and Iraq it is a veritable ‘ISIS army in detention,’” said Gen. Michael Kurilla, Commander of US Central Command. (Supplied)

While he believes Syria is the most likely place from which Daesh can make a resurgence in the region, there would first have to be a strategic shift, such as a US withdrawal or some power vacuum caused by Damascus forcibly reestablishing its rule over the area. 

“Under those conditions, it would become possible for Daesh to retake some initiative in that area and use Syria’s northeast to attack Iraq,” he said. 

“However, it shouldn’t be entirely ruled out that Daesh could resurge in Iraq, particularly if political problems there grow so severe that it reignites sectarian war. 

“Under those (more remote) circumstances, Daesh would once again have a shot at restoring territorial control within Iraq, even if Syria remained stable.”

Knights also stresses that any chance of Daesh making a successful resurgence in Iraq depends on Baghdad’s management of its security forces. 

“Syria is like a freezer in which Daesh can hibernate, waiting for it to experience a springtime in Iraq,” he said. “If the Iraqi government mismanages the security file, then a cross-border pollination could start again.”

 


Egypt deploys 3 tugboats to tow oil tanker after it breaks down in Suez Canal

Egypt deploys 3 tugboats to tow oil tanker after it breaks down in Suez Canal
Updated 41 min 40 sec ago

Egypt deploys 3 tugboats to tow oil tanker after it breaks down in Suez Canal

Egypt deploys 3 tugboats to tow oil tanker after it breaks down in Suez Canal
  • Tanker was heading from Russia to China

CAIRO: Egypt has deployed three tug boats to tow an oil tanker that suffered an engine failure in the Suez Canal, the canal’s authority said in a statement on Sunday.
The canal’s head Osama Rabie said traffic heading northwards will resume as normal after the tugboats move the tanker.
The crude tanker, SEAVIGOUR, is a Malta-flagged vessel that was built in 2016, according to Refinitiv Eikon shipping data.
It was heading from Russia to China, the canal authority added.
Frequent traffic disruptions occur because of technical malfunctions but stoppages are usually brief.
Less than two weeks ago, tugboats managed to move a bulk carrier that had been stranded for several hours in the Suez Canal.


50 Daesh terrorists, 168 family members repatriated from Syria to Iraq

50 Daesh terrorists, 168 family members repatriated from Syria to Iraq
Updated 04 June 2023

50 Daesh terrorists, 168 family members repatriated from Syria to Iraq

50 Daesh terrorists, 168 family members repatriated from Syria to Iraq
  • Al-Hol camp, in Kurdish-controlled northeast Syria, is home to about 50,000 people including family members of suspected terrorists

BAGHDAD: Fifty Daesh terrorists and 168 Iraqi members of terrorist families were repatriated from Syria to Iraq on Saturday, an Iraqi official said.
Iraqi authorities “received 50 members of the Daesh from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF),” said the source who spoke on condition of anonymity.
The SDF are the Kurds’ de facto army in the area, and led the battle that dislodged Daesh group fighters from the last scraps of their Syrian territory in 2019.
They will “be the subject of investigations and will face Iraqi justice,” they added.
According to conflict monitor the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights they were detained in Hasakah, northeast Syria.
Additionally, 168 relatives of Daesh-group members were repatriated from Syria’s Al-Hol camp to be relocated to Al-Jadaa camp south of Mosul, the Iraqi official added, where they will undergo psychiatric treatment.
“Once we receive the assurances of their tribal leaders that they will not face reprisals, they will be sent home.”
Al-Hol camp, in Kurdish-controlled northeast Syria, is home to about 50,000 people including family members of suspected terrorists.
Among them are displaced Syrians, Iraqi refugees as well as more than 10,000 foreigners originally from some 60 countries.
In March, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for the swift repatriation of foreigners held in Al-Hol.
Nearly half of the camp’s population is under the age of 12 and residents are “deprived of their rights, vulnerable, and marginalized,” Guterres said in a statement during a visit to Iraq.
“I have no doubt to say that the worst camp that exists in today’s world is Al-Hol, with the worst possible conditions for people and with enormous suffering for the people that have been stranded there for years,” Guterres said.
Since May 2021, hundreds of families have been transferred from Al-Hol to Al-Jadaa in Iraq, with a number of those going on to flee.
The repatriation to Iraq of relatives of fighters who joined the ultra-radical group that controlled one-third of Iraq between 2014 and 2017 has sparked opposition.
In December 2021, Iraqi authorities announced plans to close Al-Jadaa.
But little progress has been made and the relocation of displaced people to their home regions has proven challenging and prompted opposition from local people.

 


Three Europeans released by Iran arrive home

Three Europeans released by Iran arrive home
Updated 04 June 2023

Three Europeans released by Iran arrive home

Three Europeans released by Iran arrive home
  • Vienna reacted with relief at the release of its two citizens, named as Kamran Ghaderi and Massud Mossaheb, who it said had been arrested “unjustly” by Iran in January 2016 and January 2019, respectively

BRUSSELS: One Dane and two Austrian-Iranian citizens released from detention by Tehran arrived in their home countries on Saturday, after the latest in a series of prisoner swaps.
The three Europeans had landed shortly before 2:45 am (0045 GMT) Saturday at Melsbroek military airport just outside Brussels.
They had flown there from Muscat, the capital of Oman which helped broker their release.
Belgian Foreign Minister Hadja Lahbib welcomed them at the airport along with Danish and Austrian diplomats.
The trio’s release, as well as that of a Belgian aid worker a week earlier, were part of a prisoner swap in which Tehran got back an Iranian diplomat convicted and incarcerated in Belgium on terrorism charges.
Vienna reacted with relief at the release of its two citizens, named as Kamran Ghaderi and Massud Mossaheb, who it said had been arrested “unjustly” by Iran in January 2016 and January 2019, respectively.
Thanking Belgium, Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg said: “Our years of diplomatic efforts to secure their release have borne fruit... Today is a very emotional day for all of us.”
Ghaderi and Mossaheb arrived at Vienna airport from Belgium at around 11:30 am (0930 GMT) on Saturday, where they were welcomed by their families and Schallenberg, his spokeswoman Claudia Tuertscher told AFP.
The Danish man, identified as Thomas Kjems, landed at Copenhagen airport at around 11:00 am local time, telling reporters that he had been treated well in Iran, without being subjected to torture.
Kjems had been arrested in Iran in November 2022 on the sidelines of a demonstration for women’s rights, according to Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo.

Melsbroek is the same airport that Belgian aid worker Olivier Vandecasteele arrived at on May 26 upon being freed by Iran after 15 months in captivity.
His liberation was obtained in exchange for Belgium freeing Iranian diplomat Assadollah Assadi, who had been imprisoned for a 2018 plot to bomb an Iranian opposition rally outside Paris.
Iran had levelled charges of “espionage” at Vandecasteele but his family, the Belgian government and rights groups all say that was a fabricated case used to pressure Brussels for Assadi’s release.
Belgian government officials said the release of Vandecasteele, the Dane and the two Austrian-Iranians were all part of “Operation Blackstone,” in reference to an 18th-century English jurist William Blackstone, who was known for declaring: “It is better that 10 guilty escape than one innocent suffer.”
De Croo confirmed to Le Soir daily that the three Europeans released on Friday were the second part of the negotiations with Tehran on the exchange between Vandecasteele and Assadi.
The exiled Iranian opposition group the National Council of Resistance in Iran, the target of the 2018 bomb plot, has criticized Assadi’s release, saying it violated a Belgian court order requiring them to be consulted first.
Critics of the prisoner swap said it would encourage Tehran to take more Europeans hostage as bargaining chips to seek the return of agents like Assadi arrested for terror offenses in the West.
De Croo stressed his government “continues to fight for the respect of human rights and the release of European citizens unjustly detained by Iran.”

The exact number of foreign passport holders still being held by Iran is thought to be in the dozens but is not precisely known, as the families of some detainees opt to negotiate out of the public eye.
Belgian government officials said at least 22 “innocent” Europeans remained detained in Iran. France last week gave a figure of more than 30 EU citizens held.
Austria’s Schallenberg said of his two freed compatriots: “We are especially happy for the brave families who have suffered so much in recent years. Now they can finally embrace their husbands, fathers and grandfather again in freedom.”
The Gulf sultanate of Oman has emerged as a key interlocutor between the West and Iran.
In 2016 it also played a mediator role in the release of Washington Post journalist Jason Rezaian and three other US citizens who had been held by Tehran.
In May, Iran released a Frenchman and a French-Irish citizen, both of whom had gone on hunger strike to protest their detention and conditions.

 


Israelis stage mass protest against judicial reform plan

Israelis stage mass protest against judicial reform plan
Updated 04 June 2023

Israelis stage mass protest against judicial reform plan

Israelis stage mass protest against judicial reform plan
  • On Friday, several hundred Israelis had protested outside Netanyahu’s private residence in Caesarea north of Tel Aviv in a demonstration police labelled as unauthorized

TEL AVIV: Tens of thousands of demonstrators thronged Tel Aviv and other Israeli cities on Saturday for the 22nd consecutive week to protest against a controversial plan to reform Israel’s judicial system.
The government’s reform proposals would curtail the authority of the Supreme Court and give politicians greater powers over the selection of judges.
In March, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had announced a “pause” to allow for talks on the reforms, which were moving through parliament and split the nation.
Israeli media said nearly 100,000 people gathered in Tel Aviv for Saturday’s protest. The police do not supply official figures for the number of demonstrators.
On Friday, several hundred Israelis had protested outside Netanyahu’s private residence in Caesarea north of Tel Aviv in a demonstration police labelled as unauthorized. There were at least 17 arrests.
“We will keep demonstrating to show them that even if they have paused in the reform plan we will stay mobilized — they will not be able to pass laws on the sly,” said 55-year-old dentist Ilit Fayn at Saturday’s Tel Aviv protest.
“It’s important for us to eliminate the possibility of Israel becoming a dictatorship,” added Arnon Oshri, a 66-year-old farmer.
Netanyahu’s government, a coalition between his Likud party and extreme-right and ultra-Orthodox Jewish allies, argues that the proposed changes are needed to rebalance powers between lawmakers and the judiciary.
But opponents of the plan believe it could open the way to a more authoritarian government.
“This corrupt government is full of outlaws who are degrading our country to the level of a third world country,” Oshri said.
“It took 2,000 years for the Jewish people to have a state, and we cannot lose it because of a bunch of fanatics.”

 


Tunisian coast guard finds drowned child’s body after migrant ships sink

Tunisian coast guard finds drowned child’s body after migrant ships sink
Updated 03 June 2023

Tunisian coast guard finds drowned child’s body after migrant ships sink

Tunisian coast guard finds drowned child’s body after migrant ships sink
  • The flow of migrants from Tunisia has intensified since President Kais Saied made a fiery speech on Feb. 21 claiming illegal immigration was a demographic threat to Tunisia

SFAX, Tunisia: The Tunisian coast guard recovered the body of a young child thought to have drowned at sea when two vessels carrying migrants sank in the Mediterranean, a journalist working with AFP said.
The child’s body, dressed in a pink jumpsuit and grey woollen cap, was discovered during a patrol off the coast of Sfax, Tunisia’s second city, according to the journalist who was accompanying the coast guard.
The child was likely from Cameroon, as more than 200 Cameroonians had been rescued in the last two days, the coast guard undertaking the operation said.
The child’s mother was believed to have been one of the people missing after the sinking of two boats earlier in the week, they added.
The Cameroonian Embassy in Tunis was nonetheless unable to confirm this information when contacted by AFP.

BACKGROUND

The child’s body, dressed in a pink jumpsuit and grey woollen cap, was discovered during a patrol off the coast of Sfax, Tunisia’s second city, according to a journalist who was accompanying the coast guard.

Local court spokesman Faouzi Masmoudi meanwhile said that two boats carrying migrants from sub-Saharan Africa sank off Sfax’s coast Wednesday.
Six people died and 39 were rescued from the first boat, while 12 people from the second boat were rescued and 41 others are missing, he said.
It was unknown which of the boats the child had been traveling on, Masmoudi added.
Tunisia, whose coastline is less than 150 km from the Italian island of Lampedusa, has long been a favored launching point for migrants attempting the perilous sea journey from North Africa to Europe.
The flow of migrants from Tunisia has intensified since President Kais Saied made a fiery speech on Feb. 21 claiming illegal immigration was a demographic threat to Tunisia.
The country is in the grips of a long-running socio-economic crisis, with spiralling inflation and persistently high unemployment, pushing some of its citizens to seek a better life abroad.
On May 26, authorities announced the arrest of an alleged smuggler in Sfax, wanted in connection with the September deaths of 20 Tunisian migrants who drowned off the coast of Chebba.