India’s mammoth election heats up in trend-defining second phase

India’s mammoth election heats up in trend-defining second phase
Voters queue up to cast their ballots outside a polling station during the second phase of voting of India’s general election in Bengaluru on April 26, 2024. (AFP)
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Updated 26 April 2024
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India’s mammoth election heats up in trend-defining second phase

India’s mammoth election heats up in trend-defining second phase
  • Second phase is seen by analysts as defining dynamics of rest of the polls
  • Turnout in first phase was lower than expected — 66 percent, compared with 70 percent in 2019

NEW DELHI: India’s mammoth general election rolled on Friday into its second phase, which is widely believed to likely set the trend for the rest of the polls.
More than 968 million voters were registered to cast the ballot vote in the world’s most populous country, where incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party are eyeing a rare third straight five-year term in power.
The first phase of the vote was on April 19 as polling takes place over six weeks, with results expected on June 4. The other voting dates will be May 7, May 13, May 20, May 25 and June 1.
India has a total of 28 states and eight federally governed territories. Some regions complete the process on a single day, and others spread it out over several phases.
Voting last week took place in 21 states and union territories, with nearly 169 million people eligible to cast their ballots. In the second phase, more than 160 million people were expected to vote across 13 states and federal territories.
As many as 1,202 candidates contested the polls on Friday, vying for 88 of the 543 seats in the lower house of Parliament. In the previous phase, 102 seats were up for grabs.
More than half of the 88 seats were in the southern states of Kerala and Karnataka and the northwestern state of Rajasthan.
The party or coalition that wins at least 272 seats will form the government.
Modi, who ahead of the election was targeting 400 seats for his BJP-led National Democratic Alliance, is challenged by an alliance of two dozen opposition parties — the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, or INDIA, led by the Congress party, which has ruled the country for close to 45 years since independence in 1947.
‘MINI-GENERAL ELECTION’
The second phase of India’s polls is seen by analysts as defining the dynamics of the remaining five phases. One of the factors was the voter turnout, which in this election might be lower.
In the first phase, 66 percent of those eligible to vote cast their ballot — compared with 70 percent in 2019.
“From the first phase of the election, the message went that there is a silent undercurrent against the BJP and the dip in the voting percentage sent the signal that the BJP would slip in its strongholds in northern India particularly Uttar Pradesh,” Umakant Lakhera, political commentator in Delhi, told Arab News.
“If the trend of voters’ perceived apathy toward the election in general — and the BJP in particular — continues, then it’s an opportunity for the opposition Congress party to consolidate and mobilize its resources to widen its reach and capitalize on anti BJP sentiment.”
The key leader of the opposition coalition and Congress member is Rahul Gandhi, the son of Rajiv Gandhi, a grandson of Indira Gandhi, and a great-grandson of Jawaharlal Nehru, all of whom served as prime ministers of India.
Gandhi is seeking re-election from Wayanad in Kerala — the only major state that has never elected a BJP member of parliament, and where it was not a main competitor. This year, Modi’s party has been trying to make inroads into the state’s political scene.
The main contenders, besides Gandhi, are Annie Raja of the Communist Party of India and BJP’s K. Surendran.
“Kerala always has witnessed bipolar politics, but the BJP has been trying this time to make it a triangular contest, and this election will test whether a third force can find space in Kerala or not,” Prof. G. Gopa Kumar, political scientist and adviser to the Kerala-based Center for Public Policy Research, told Arab News.
“The second phase will test whether the stigma of the BJP of being an outsider in Kerala will continue or not, whether the stigma of not winning a seat in Kerala will continue or not.”
Far from Kerala, in the north, where several states were also going to the polls, another test was taking place at the same time — for the Congress party. Congress plunged to a historic low when it was swept out of power by the BJP in the 2014 general vote, and won its second-lowest number of 52 seats in 2019.
“The second phase is a mini-general election. What is at stake is whether the Congress is going to challenge the dominance of the BJP in the north Indian states like Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh or not,” Kumar said.
“The contest is getting serious from now on. For the Congress, it is a survival question as they have to prove that they can defeat the BJP and survive as a big force.”
Although surveys suggest Modi will easily win a comfortable majority in parliament, his 400-seat target, often repeated ahead of the polls, has not been cited since last week’s first phase.
Asad Rizvi, an analyst based in Lucknow, the capital of India’s most populous state and BJP stronghold, Uttar Pradesh, said that the performance was apparently not as good as expected, despite the repetition of the party’s tactics of polarization along religious lines.
“A perception has come to dominate after the first phase of elections that the BJP has not performed well in its strongholds in Uttar Pradesh, therefore, the BJP will have a tough time mobilizing its core voters to retain the seats,” he told Arab News.
“The second phase is also crucial that will test whether the BJP’s communal agenda is working or not.”


Judge orders US to restore funds for foreign aid programs

Updated 6 sec ago
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Judge orders US to restore funds for foreign aid programs

Judge orders US to restore funds for foreign aid programs
  • Trump has attempted to dismantle government agencies and ordered them to prepare for wide-ranging job cuts
WASHINGTON: A federal judge ordered the administration of US President Donald Trump to restore funding for hundreds of foreign aid contractors who say they have been devastated by his 90-day blanket freeze, Politico reported late on Thursday.
The order blocks the Trump administration from canceling foreign aid contracts and awards that were in place before Trump took office on January 20.
The stated purpose in suspending of all foreign aid was to provide the opportunity to review programs for their efficiency and consistency with priorities, US District Judge Amir Ali wrote in a filing in the US District Court for the District of Columbia.
He added: “At least to date, defendants have not offered any explanation for why a blanket suspension of all congressionally appropriated foreign aid, which set off a shockwave and upended reliance interests for thousands of agreements with businesses, nonprofits, and organizations around the country, was a rational precursor to reviewing programs.”
Trump has attempted to dismantle government agencies and ordered them to prepare for wide-ranging job cuts, and several have already begun to lay off recent hires who lack full job security.
The Republican has also embarked on a massive government makeover, firing and sidelining hundreds of civil servants and top officials at agencies in his first steps toward downsizing the bureaucracy and installing more loyalists.

Plane carrying Secretary of State Rubio to Europe turned around because of a mechanical issue

Plane carrying Secretary of State Rubio to Europe turned around because of a mechanical issue
Updated 4 min 19 sec ago
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Plane carrying Secretary of State Rubio to Europe turned around because of a mechanical issue

Plane carrying Secretary of State Rubio to Europe turned around because of a mechanical issue
  • Rubio intended to continue his travel to Germany and the Middle East on a separate aircraft
WASHINGTON: An Air Force plane carrying Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman, Sen. Jim Risch, to Germany for the Munich Security Conference was forced to return to Washington late Thursday after developing a mechanical issue.
“This evening, en route from Washington to Munich, the plane on which Secretary Rubio is flying experienced a mechanical issue,” State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce said.
“The plane has turned around and is returning to Joint Base Andrews,” she said. “The secretary intends to continue his travel to Germany and the Middle East on a separate aircraft.”
The issue with what one official said had to do with the cockpit windshield on the C-32, a converted Boeing 757, occurred about 90 minutes after the flight took off from Joint Base Andrews outside of Washington.
Although Rubio plans to resume his journey on a new plane, it was not immediately clear if the delay would cause him to miss a scheduled Friday morning meeting with Vice President JD Vance and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Munich.

Trump says US has approved extradition of suspect in 2008 Mumbai attacks

Trump says US has approved extradition of suspect in 2008 Mumbai attacks
Updated 31 min 35 sec ago
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Trump says US has approved extradition of suspect in 2008 Mumbai attacks

Trump says US has approved extradition of suspect in 2008 Mumbai attacks
  • The three-day attacks on hotels, a train station and a Jewish center killed 166 people in November 2008
  • India says Pakistan-based group Lashkar-e-Taiba orchestrated the attacks. Pakistan denies being involved

WASHINGTON: The US has approved the extradition of a suspect in the 2008 militant attacks in India’s financial capital Mumbai in which over 160 people were killed, President Donald Trump said on Thursday in a press conference with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
The three-day attacks on hotels, a train station and a Jewish center in which 166 people were killed began on November 26, 2008. India says Pakistan-based group Lashkar-e-Taiba orchestrated the attacks. Pakistan’s government denies being involved.
“I am pleased to announce that my administration has approved the extradition of one of the plotters and one of the very evil people of the world, having to do with the horrific 2008 Mumbai terrorist attack to face justice in India. So he is going to be going back to India to face justice,” Trump told reporters at the White House.
Trump did not name the individual but media reports identified him as Pakistani-origin Chicago businessman and Canadian citizen Tahawwur Rana.
Late last month, the US Supreme Court rejected Rana’s review petition against his extradition.
Rana was previously sentenced to US federal prison for providing support to the Lashkar-e-Taiba.
Trump was also asked in the press conference about Sikh separatists in the United States, whom India calls security threats. Sikh separatists demand an independent homeland known as Khalistan to be carved out of India.
Trump did not respond directly to the question but said India and the US worked together on crime.
Since 2023, India’s alleged targeting of Sikh separatists in the US and Canada has emerged as a wrinkle in US-India ties, with Washington charging an ex-Indian intelligence officer in a foiled US plot. India says it is probing US allegations.


Trump offers top-end jets, trade deal to India in Modi bromance

Trump offers top-end jets, trade deal to India in Modi bromance
Updated 14 February 2025
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Trump offers top-end jets, trade deal to India in Modi bromance

Trump offers top-end jets, trade deal to India in Modi bromance
  • Modi told Trump he’s determined to “Make India Great Again,” a play on the US president’s “Make America Great Again” catch phrase and movement
  • Trump said that he found a “special bond” with Modi, pledges extradition of one of the plotters of the 2008 Mumbai attacks

WASHINGTON: US President Donald Trump on Thursday offered to sell state-of-the-art fighter jets to India as he and Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed to ramp up trade, rekindling a bond that defies the new US administration’s punitive approach to much of the world.
Modi, only the fourth world leader to visit the White House since Trump’s return, described the fellow nationalist as a friend and told him he’s determined to “Make India Great Again,” or “MIGA,” a play on Trump’s “MAGA” or “Make America Great Again” catch phrase and movement.

Trump said that he found a “special bond” with Modi and India and, in an uncharacteristic if ironic show of humility, complimented Modi as being a “much tougher negotiator” than he is.
Successive US administrations have seen India as a key partner with like-minded interests in the face of a rising China, and Trump announced that the new administration was ready to sell one of the top US military prizes — F-35s.
“Starting this year, we’ll be increasing military sales to India by many billions of dollars,” Trump told a joint news conference with Modi.
“We’re also paving the way to ultimately provide India with the F-35 stealth fighters,” Trump said.

Trump, who has previously complained about Indian tariffs, agreed with Modi that the two countries would work together on a trade deal.
“In order to ensure India’s energy security, we will focus on trade in oil and gas,” Modi said, expecting a “mutually beneficial trade agreement” would come “very soon.”
Joining Trump’s meeting with Modi was SpaceX and Tesla tycoon Elon Musk, who has launched an aggressive effort as Trump’s right-hand man to overhaul the US bureaucracy.
Musk also held a one-on-one meeting with Modi earlier Thursday, in an encounter that drew questions over whether the world’s richest man was meeting the Indian premier in an official or a business capacity.
The Indian premier posted pictures of himself shaking hands with the beaming Musk, with several children on Musk’s side of the room, and Indian officials on the other.
Modi said later that he has known Musk since before he became prime minister.

US President Donald Trump meets with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the White House in Washington, DC, on February 13, 2025. Also in the meeting were US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, billionaire Elon Musk, and US Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum, among others. (AFP)

Trump had earlier put the leader of the world’s most populous nation on notice over possible tariffs.
The meeting came hours after the US president announced reciprocal tariffs on all countries, including India — but New Delhi is hoping to avoid further levies that Trump says are needed to counter the US trade deficit.
“India, traditionally, is the highest, just about the highest tariff country. They charge more tariffs than any other country. And I mean, we’ll be talking about that,” Trump earlier told reporters.
“India is a very hard place to do business because of the tariffs.”
US officials said there had been “early body language” from India but there was a “lot more work to do.”
Modi offered quick tariff concessions ahead of his visit, with New Delhi slashing duties on high-end motorcycles — a boost to Harley-Davidson, the iconic US manufacturer whose struggles in India have irked Trump.

Trump also said he’d back extraditing one of the plotters of the 2008 Mumbai attacks, appeared to be referencing Tahawwur Hussain Rana who was convicted in 2011 in the US for plotting an attack on a Danish newspaper.
“He’s going to be going back to India to face justice,” Trump said, latter adding that “we’re giving him back to India immediately.”
India has already accepted a US military flight carrying 100 shackled migrants last week as part of Trump’s immigration overhaul, and New Delhi has vowed its own “strong crackdown” on illegal migration.

Trump said more extraditions could be coming.

The Indian prime minister assiduously courted Trump during his first term.
The two share much in common, with both campaigning on promises to promote majority communities over minorities and both doggedly quashing dissent.
In 2020, Modi invited Trump before a cheering crowd of more than 100,000 people to inaugurate the world’s largest cricket stadium in his home state of Gujarat.
For the Trump administration, meanwhile, India is seen as integral to the US strategy of containing China in the Indo-Pacific. Modi’s country is hosting a summit of a group of countries known as the Quad — made up of the US, India, Japan and Australia — later this year.


Trump signs a plan for reciprocal tariffs on US trading partners, ushering in economic uncertainty

Trump signs a plan for reciprocal tariffs on US trading partners, ushering in economic uncertainty
Updated 14 February 2025
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Trump signs a plan for reciprocal tariffs on US trading partners, ushering in economic uncertainty

Trump signs a plan for reciprocal tariffs on US trading partners, ushering in economic uncertainty
  • Says the reciprocal tariff is “fair to all. No other country can complain,” adding that the new tariffs would equalize the ability of US and foreign manufacturers to compete
  • Analysts warned that the politics of tariffs could easily backfire on Trump if his agenda pushes up inflation and grinds down growth

WASHINGTON: President Donald Trump on Thursday rolled out his plan to increase US tariffs to match the tax rates that other countries charge on imports, possibly triggering a broader economic confrontation with allies and rivals alike as he hopes to eliminate any trade imbalances.
“I’ve decided for purposes of fairness that I will charge a reciprocal tariff,” Trump said in the Oval Office at the proclamation signing. “It’s fair to all. No other country can complain.”
Trump’s Republican administration has insisted that its new tariffs would equalize the ability of US and foreign manufacturers to compete, though under current law these new taxes would likely be paid by American consumers and businesses either directly or in the form of higher prices.
The politics of tariffs could easily backfire on Trump if his agenda pushes up inflation and grinds down growth, making this a high stakes wager for a president eager to declare his authority over the US economy.
The tariff increases would be customized for each country with the partial goal of starting new trade negotiations. But other nations might also feel the need to respond with their own tariff increases on American goods. As a result, Trump may need to find ways to reassure consumers and businesses to counteract any uncertainty caused by his tariffs.
The United States does have low average tariffs, but Trump’s proclamation as written would seem designed to jack up taxes on imports, rather than pursue fairness as the United States also has regulatory restrictions that limit foreign products, said Scott Lincicome, a trade expert at the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank.
“It will inevitably mean higher tariffs, and thus higher taxes for American consumers and manufacturers,” he said. Trump’s tariffs plan “reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of how the global economy works.”
Trump’s proclamation identifies value-added taxes — which are similar to sales taxes and common in the European Union — as a trade barrier to be included in any reciprocal tariff calculations. Other nations’ tariff rates, subsidies to industries, regulations and possible undervaluing of currencies would be among the factors the Trump administration would use to assess tariffs.
A senior White House official, who insisted on anonymity to preview the details on a call with reporters, said that the expected tariff revenues would separately help to balance the expected $1.9 trillion budget deficit. The official also said the reviews needed for the tariffs could be completed within a matter of weeks or a few months.
The possible tax increases on imports and exports could be large compared to the comparatively modest tariffs that Trump imposed during his first term. Trade in goods between Europe and the United States nearly totaled $1.3 trillion last year, with the United States exporting $267 billion less than it imports, according to the Census Bureau.
The president has openly antagonized multiple US trading partners over the past several weeks, levying tariff threats and inviting them to retaliate with import taxes of their own that could send the economy hurtling into a trade war.
Trump has put an additional 10 percent tariff on Chinese imports due to that country’s role in the production of the opioid fentanyl. He also has readied tariffs on Canada and Mexico, America’s two largest trading partners, that could take effect in March after being suspended for 30 days. On top of that, on Monday, he removed the exemptions from his 2018 steel and aluminum tariffs. And he’s mused about new tariffs on computer chips and pharmaceutical drugs.
But by Trump’s own admission, his separate tariffs for national security and other reasons would be on top of the reciprocal tariffs, meaning that the playing field would not necessarily be level.
In the case of the 25 percent steel and aluminum tariffs, “that’s over and above this,” Trump said. Autos, computer chips and pharmaceuticals would also be tariffed at higher rates than what his reciprocal plan charges, he said.
The EU, Canada and Mexico have countermeasures ready to inflict economic pain on the United States in response to Trump’s actions, while China has already taken retaliatory steps with its own tariffs on US energy, agricultural machinery and large-engine autos as well as an antitrust investigation of Google.
The White House has argued that charging the same import taxes as other countries do would improve the fairness of trade, potentially raising revenues for the US government while also enabling negotiations that could eventually improve trade.
But Trump is also making a political wager that voters can tolerate higher inflation levels. Price spikes in 2021 and 2022 severely weakened the popularity of then-President Joe Biden, with voters so frustrated by inflation eroding their buying power that they chose last year to put Trump back in the White House to address the problem. Inflation has risen since November’s election, with the government reporting on Wednesday that the consumer price index is running at an annual rate of 3 percent.
The Trump team has decried criticism of its tariffs even as it has acknowledged the likelihood of some financial pain. It says that the tariffs have to be weighed against the possible extension and expansion of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts as well as efforts to curb regulations and force savings through the spending freezes and staff reductions in billionaire adviser Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency initiative.
But an obstacle to this approach might be the sequencing of the various policies and the possibilities of a wider trade conflict stifling investment and hiring amid the greater inflationary pressures.
Analysts at the bank Wells Fargo said in a Thursday report that the tariffs would likely hurt growth this year, just as the possibility of extended and expanded tax cuts could help growth recover in 2026.
Trump tried to minimize the likelihood that his policies would trigger anything more than a brief bump in inflation. But when asked if he would ask agencies to analyze the possible impact on prices, the president declined.
“There’s nothing to study,” Trump said. “It’s going to go well.”