What to know after Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah

What to know after Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah
People gather at the site of the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut's southern suburbs, Lebanon Sunday, Sept. 29, 2024. (AP)
Short Url
Updated 29 September 2024
Follow

What to know after Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah

What to know after Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah
  • It remains to be seen whether his death will be a trigger for an all-out war between the two sides
  • Iran is the main backer of Hezbollah and other anti-Israeli militant groups in the region

BEIRUT: Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is a monumental and hugely demoralizing blow to the group he led for 32 years, marking a significant inflection point for Lebanon and the region.
Hezbollah’s announcement of his death Friday triggered tears and celebrations across the Arab world, pointing to the widespread reach and influence of a divisive man who has been at the forefront of Middle Eastern politics for decades.
The 64-year-old Nasrallah headed arguably the most powerful paramilitary force in the world — also a US-designated terror organization — that is now left without a clear successor at a critical juncture. It remains to be seen whether his death will be a trigger for an all-out war between the two sides that could potentially drag in Iran and the United States.
Here are some things to know about the situation:
Is it a decapitating blow?
Nasrallah’s assassination is a severe blow to the group, not a decapitating one. But analysts say Hezbollah will need some time to absorb the shock and recover.
“Nasrallah’s killing is a significant setback for Hezbollah, not only because of the pivotal role he played in Hezbollah’s strategy but also because his elimination reveals the extent of the group’s vulnerability vis-à-vis Israel,” said Lina Khatib, an associate fellow at Chatham House, an international affairs think tank.
“This will shake the confidence of Hezbollah’s Iran-backed allies across the Arab world, from the Houthis in Yemen to the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq, as well as Iran itself, sparking a tectonic shift in Iran’s network of influence in the Middle East,” she added.
It is not the first time Israel has killed a Hezbollah leader. Nasrallah took over from Abbas Mousawi, who was killed by an Israeli helicopter attack in 1992.
But Hezbollah today is very different from the ragtag organization it was in the ‘90s. In recent years, he has presided over an army-like group estimated to have tens of thousands of fighters and a sophisticated arsenal capable of reaching anywhere inside Israel.
It has become the chief part of a cluster of Iranian-backed factions and governments of the self-named “Axis of Resistance.”
“Hezbollah will not back down following the killing of its leader, as it will need to convey steadfastness in the face of Israel if it’s going to retain its credibility as the strongest ‘resistance’ actor in the region,” said Khatib.
Iran’s dilemma
In his first remarks Saturday following Nasrallah’s death, Iran’s supreme leader gave no indication of how Tehran will respond.
In a vague statement, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said, “all regional resistance forces” support and stand beside Hezbollah, but he did not elaborate.
Iran is the main backer of Hezbollah and other anti-Israeli militant groups in the region, but it has largely avoided clashing directly with Israel due to domestic considerations.
Hezbollah, however, is Iran’s chief ally and proxy group, and Tehran may have to respond to retain its credibility with its partners in the axis.
“Iran is very much in a policy dilemma right now,” said Firas Maksad, of the Middle East Institute. On one hand, clearly it very much has wanted to avoid an all-out and direct confrontation, given its long-standing preference for asymmetric warfare and using proxies.
“But on the other hand, a lack of a worthy response given the magnitude of the event will only encourage Israel to push deeper past Iran’s red lines,” he said. Not responding also sends a signal of weakness to its regional proxies.
Any direct Iranian involvement risks dragging Israel’s chief ally, the US, into the war, just over a month before the US elections and at a time Iran has signaled its interest in renewing negotiations with the US over its nuclear program.
Maksad said one possible scenario is a coordinated response from the entire axis. Whether that will be coupled with a direct response from Iran itself is an open question.
Who will succeed Nasrallah?
There is no one nearly as influential and respected among the group’s remaining leadership as Nasrallah.
The man widely regarded as his heir is Hashem Safieddine, a cousin of Nasrallah who oversees the group’s political affairs. It is not known if he survived Friday’s attack, and the Hezbollah statement announcing Nasrallah’s death Friday made no mention of a successor.
The group’s Shoura Council will have to meet in the coming days or weeks to choose its new leadership. Lebanese journalist and writer Maher Abi Nader said Safieddine or Nabil Kaouk, a member of the group’s executive council, were the likely successors.
Whoever ends up replacing Nasrallah in the current atmosphere will have to contend with a deeply weakened force facing growing anger and frustration on the home front.
In just over 10 days, the Iran-backed group has been hit by a series of devastating attacks that dealt a severe blow to its military structure and exposed deep intelligence failures.
Explosives hidden in the group’s pagers and walkie-talkies killed dozens of people and wounded thousands — many of them Hezbollah members. Israel has also rained down missiles on residential areas where the group has a strong presence, killing hundreds and displacing tens of thousands of people.
Nasrallah was regarded by supporters as a charismatic and shrewd leader. Despite being a divisive figure, he is credited with pushing Israeli forces from south Lebanon in 2000 following an 18-year occupation, as well as transforming the organization from a local militia to a major political player in Lebanon and a top armed force in the region.
He held tremendous sway over the group and the country’s Shiite community.
Orna Mizrahi, a senior researcher at the Tel Aviv-based think tank Institute for National Security Studies, noted that Nasrallah was sometimes a “voice of reason” who was interested in engaging Israel in a war of attrition, holding the militant group back from using the full force of their formidable arsenal against Israel.
Filling those shoes will be a tough act, analysts say.
Growing tensions in Lebanon
Any new Hezbollah leader will also have to contend with rising resentment and frustration among a significant section of the Lebanese population. For years, critics say, Hezbollah deprived Lebanon of its sovereignty by behaving as a state within a state and making unilateral decisions involving war and peace.
Many Christians and Sunnis, as well as a portion of the Shiite community, are opposed to the war and what they regard as Nasrallah’s unilateral decision to attack Israel in support of the Gaza front on Oct. 8, a day after the Hamas attack on Israel that ignited the war in the Palestinian territory.
Tensions are extremely high in tiny Lebanon, which is already drowning under the force of an economic meltdown and multiple other crises. A humanitarian crisis has rapidly unfolded with tens of thousands of people displaced, many of them sleeping in parks and makeshift shelters. Dozens of schools designated as sheltered became full within days.
The country is bankrupt and has been without a president and functioning government for two years. In the void, sectarian tensions and frustrations within the country could spiral into armed violence.
Maha Yahya, director of the Beirut-based Carnegie Middle East Center, said Hezbollah now has to contend with all of that as it struggles to regroup.
“And it will have to be more accommodating to Lebanon’s other political parties and communities,” she said.


Gaza rescuers say 14 killed in Israeli strikes

Gaza rescuers say 14 killed in Israeli strikes
Updated 8 sec ago
Follow

Gaza rescuers say 14 killed in Israeli strikes

Gaza rescuers say 14 killed in Israeli strikes

GAZA STRIP: Gaza’s civil defense agency said on Saturday that Israeli air strikes killed at least 14 Palestinians overnight, including women and children, while the Israeli military said it had eliminated dozens of militants in the territory’s north.
An air strike hit tents housing displaced Palestinians in the southern area of Khan Yunis, killing at least nine people, including children and women, civil defense spokesman Mahmud Bassal told AFP.
The Palestinian Red Crescent also confirmed the toll, saying 11 others were wounded in the strike and were taken to Nasser Hospital.
A second air strike killed five people, including children, and injured about 22 when “Israeli warplanes hit Fahad Al-Sabah school,” which had been turned into a shelter for “thousands of displaced people” in the Al-Tuffah district of Gaza City, Bassal said.
The dead and injured were taken to Al-Ahli Arab Hospital, he added.
In recent months, the military has struck several schools-turned-shelters where Israel has said Palestinian militants are operating.
Meanwhile, the Israeli military said its troops killed “dozens of terrorists” in the Jabalia area of northern Gaza, where it has been conducting a sweeping air and ground operation for more than a month to prevent Hamas from regrouping.
Israeli forces also killed several militants in the area of Rafah in the territory’s south, the military added.
The military is currently engaged in a two-front war, with troops fighting Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.
“Over the past day, the IAF (air force) struck over 50 terror targets in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip,” the military said in a statement.
“Among the targets struck were military structures, weapons storage facilities and launchers,” it added.
Israel’s war in Gaza broke out after Hamas militants attacked Israel on October 7 last year, which resulted in the deaths of 1,206 people on Israeli side, most of them civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures, which included those who died and were killed in captivity.
During the attack, militants abducted 251 people, 97 of whom are still held captive in Gaza, including 34 the Israeli military says are dead.
Israel’s retaliatory military offensive in Gaza has killed at least 43,508 people, a majority of them civilians, according to figures from the Hamas-run territory’s health ministry that the United Nations considers to be reliable.


South Sudan floods affect 1.4 million, displace 379,000: UN

South Sudan floods affect 1.4 million, displace 379,000: UN
Updated 2 min 19 sec ago
Follow

South Sudan floods affect 1.4 million, displace 379,000: UN

South Sudan floods affect 1.4 million, displace 379,000: UN
  • The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said about 1.4 million people were affected by floods in 43 counties

Nairobi: Devastating flooding in South Sudan is affecting around 1.4 million people, with more than 379,000 displaced, according to a United Nations update that warned about an upsurge in malaria.
Aid agencies have said that the world’s youngest country, highly vulnerable to climate change, is in the grip of its worst flooding in decades, mainly in the north.
The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said about 1.4 million people were affected by floods in 43 counties and the disputed Abyei region, which is claimed by both South Sudan and Sudan.
“Over 379,000 individuals are displaced in 22 counties and Abyei,” it added in a statement issued late on Friday.
A surge in malaria has been reported in several states, it said, “overwhelming the health system and exacerbating the situation and impact in flood-hit areas.”
Since gaining independence from Sudan in 2011, the world’s youngest nation has remained plagued by chronic instability, violence and economic stagnation as well as climate disasters such as drought and floods.

The World Bank said last month that the latest floods were “worsening an already critical humanitarian situation marked by severe food insecurity, economic decline, continued conflict, disease outbreaks, and the repercussions of the Sudan conflict,” which has seen several hundred thousand people pour into South Sudan.
More than seven million people are food insecure in South Sudan and 1.65 million children are malnourished, according to the UN’s World Food Programme.
The country also faces another period of political paralysis after the president’s office announced in September yet another extension to a transitional period agreed in a 2018 peace deal, delaying elections by two years to December 2026.
Key provisions of the transitional agreement remain unfulfilled — including the creation of a constitution and the unification of the rival forces of President Salva Kiir and his foe Reik Machar.
The delay has left South Sudan’s partners and the United Nations exasperated, with UN envoy Nicholas Haysom on Thursday describing it as a “regrettable development.”
All local and international parties involved “must collectively seize the opportunity to make this extension the last, and deliver the peace and democracy that the people of South Sudan deserve,” added Haysom.
South Sudan boasts plentiful oil resources but the vital source of revenue was decimated in February when an export pipeline was damaged in neighboring war-torn Sudan.


Iraqi PM urges Trump to ‘work toward ending’ Mideast wars

Iraqi PM urges Trump to ‘work toward ending’ Mideast wars
Updated 49 min 27 sec ago
Follow

Iraqi PM urges Trump to ‘work toward ending’ Mideast wars

Iraqi PM urges Trump to ‘work toward ending’ Mideast wars
  • About 2,500 American troops are deployed in Iraq as part of a US-led coalition that was formed to help battle the Daesh group.

Baghdad: Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani expressed hopes during a phone call with US President-elect Donald Trump that he would keep his “promises to work toward ending wars” in the Middle East.
Amid Israel’s wars in Gaza and Lebanon, Sudani — who was named premier by a majority bloc of Iran-backed political factions — has been in a delicate balancing act to ensure his country is not drawn into the fighting.
In the phone call, the Iraqi premier pointed to Trump’s “campaign statements and promises to work toward ending wars in the region,” a statement from Sudani’s office said late Friday.
“The two sides agreed to coordinate efforts in achieving this goal,” it added.
About 2,500 American troops are deployed in Iraq as part of a US-led coalition that was formed to help battle the Daesh group.
Bases hosting the American troops have been the target of dozens of rocket and drone attacks launched by Iran-backed groups in Iraq, which have also claimed attacks against Israel.
Baghdad has for years called on Washington to provide a clear timeline for the withdrawal of their remaining coalition troops.
The US and Iraq announced in late September that the international coalition would end its decade-long military mission in federal Iraq within a year, and by September 2026 in the autonomous Kurdistan region.
But the joint statement and US officials did not say whether any American troops would remain in Iraq.
Under Trump’s first term in office, relations deteriorated between the two countries after a US drone strike in January 2020 killed Iranian general Qasem Soleimani — the chief of the Quds Force and the architect of the Islamic republic’s military operations abroad.
Also killed in that strike was Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis, the deputy head of Iraq’s former paramilitary Hashed Al-Shaabi that have been integrated into the armed forces.
As part of their investigations into Muhandis’s assassination, the Iraqi judiciary issued a warrant for Trump’s arrest in January 2021.


Israel must comply with ICJ measures to prevent genocide — UN human rights chief

Israel must comply with ICJ measures to prevent genocide — UN human rights chief
Updated 55 min 41 sec ago
Follow

Israel must comply with ICJ measures to prevent genocide — UN human rights chief

Israel must comply with ICJ measures to prevent genocide — UN human rights chief
  • Volker Turk’s office publishes report covering violations between November 2023, April 2024
  • UN Human Rights Office: Almost 70% of fatalities in Gaza are children, women

NEW YORK: The UN high commissioner for human rights on Friday called on Israel to “fully and immediately” comply with the provisional measures issued in January by the International Court of Justice demanding action to prevent a genocide from being perpetrated against the Palestinians.

Volker Turk also called on states to honor their obligations under international law and “assess arms sales or transfers and provision of military, logistical or financial support to a party to the conflict, with a view to ending such support if this risks serious violations of international law.”

His warning comes as a new report by his office, published on Friday, warned that “if committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, (Israel’s violations) may constitute genocide.”

In January, after considering an original case brought by South Africa accusing Israel of genocide, the ICJ issued a ruling that included provisional measures ordering Israel to take action to prevent and punish the commission of, or the incitement to commit, genocide; to halt the indiscriminate killing of Palestinians; and to immediately facilitate the delivery of humanitarian aid to the people of Gaza.

Turk said Israel’s compliance with the ICJ ruling is now “even more critical and urgent” in light of the new report, which details “the horrific reality that has unfolded for the people of Israel and Gaza since 7 October 2023,” and concludes by demanding justice with respect to the grave violations of international law that have been committed.

The ICJ measures are also more pertinent than ever given the most recent events, Turk said, including Israel’s operations in northern Gaza and its adoption of legislation banning the main UN aid agency for Palestinian refugees from operating in Israel and occupied East Jerusalem.

“It is essential that there is due reckoning with respect to the allegations of serious violations of international law through credible and impartial judicial bodies and that, in the meantime, all relevant information and evidence are collected and preserved,” said Turk.

The new report covers violations that occurred from November 2023 to April 2024, including the killing of civilians and breaches of international law that it said could amount to war crimes.

“If committed as part of a widespread or systematic attack directed against a civilian population, further to a State or organizational policy, these violations may constitute crimes against humanity,” the report says.

Turk urged support for the work of accountability mechanisms, including the International Criminal Court, in relation to the conflict in Gaza, for the exercise of universal jurisdiction to investigate and try crimes under international law in national courts, and for compliance with extradition requests of suspects of such crimes to countries where they would receive a fair trial.

The report highlights repeated statements from Israeli officials calling for Gaza’s entire destruction and the exodus of its people.

It documents Israel’s efforts to “rationalize discrimination, hostility and violence towards, and even the elimination of, Palestinians.”

The report underscores how civilians have borne the brunt of the attacks, including through the initial “complete siege” of Gaza, as well as Israel’s continuing “unlawful failures” to allow the entry of humanitarian aid, the destruction of civilian infrastructure, and mass displacement of Palestinians.

“This conduct by Israeli Forces has caused unprecedented levels of killings, death, injury, starvation, illness and disease,” the reports says, adding that Hamas and other Palestinian armed groups have also committed serious violations of international law on a wide scale

“The rules of war, in force now for 160 years, were designed to limit and prevent human suffering in times of armed conflict,” Turk said.

“Their wanton disregard has led to the current extremes of human suffering which we continue to see today.

“It seems inconceivable that the parties to the conflict refuse to apply universally accepted and binding norms developed to preserve the very bare minimum of humanity.”  

The UN Human Rights Office says close to 70 percent of fatalities in Gaza are children and women, indicating “a systematic violation of the fundamental principles of international humanitarian law, including distinction and proportionality.”

The continuation of these attacks “demonstrates an apparent indifference to the death of civilians and the impact of the means and methods of warfare selected,” the report states. 

It also raises concerns over the forcible transfer of Palestinians, attacks on hospitals in “apparent systematic fashion” as well as journalists, and the reported use of white phosphorus munitions.

“Our monitoring indicates that this unprecedented level of killing, and injury of civilians is a direct consequence of the failure to comply with fundamental principles of international humanitarian law — namely the principles of distinction, proportionality and precautions in attack,” Turk said. 

“Tragically, these documented patterns of violations continue unabated, over one year after the start of the war.

“The trends and patterns of violations, and of applicable international law as clarified by the International Court of Justice, must inform the steps to be taken to end the current crisis,” he added.

“The violence must stop immediately, the hostages and those arbitrarily detained must be released, and we must focus on flooding Gaza with humanitarian aid.” 


Jordan’s tourism industry struggling as Gaza war deters visitors

Jordan’s tourism industry struggling as Gaza war deters visitors
Updated 09 November 2024
Follow

Jordan’s tourism industry struggling as Gaza war deters visitors

Jordan’s tourism industry struggling as Gaza war deters visitors
  • Sites such as Petra, Wadi Rum and crusader castles have been drawing visitors for decades
  • Flight ticket bookings to Jordan are down 35 percent year-on-year between Sept. 16 and Oct. 4

PETRA, Jordan/LONDON: Enas Al-Hinti has cut staff pay in half and asked workers to take unpaid leave in an effort to keep her hotel in ancient Petra open as Western holidaymakers fearful of conflict shun destinations in the Middle East.
A crisis across the region’s tourism industry since the start of the Israel-Hamas war 13 months ago is being felt acutely in Jordan, whose border with Israel along the Red Sea and Dead Sea is studded with beach resorts.
Sites such as Petra, Wadi Rum and crusader castles have been drawing visitors for decades — more than one million a year before the war, mainly Americans and Europeans.
But Reuters reporters on a recent trip to the city carved from rose-colored rock — Jordan’s most-visited tourist attraction — found businesses boarded up by their owners.
“There are no revenues, it’s all losses,” Al-Hinti, who runs the Nomads hotel, said.
Data and interviews with seven hotel and business owners and tour operators underline the damage to the tourist industry, which last year made up 12.5 percent of the economy.
Flight ticket bookings to Jordan, which is not involved in the conflict, were down 35 percent year-on-year between Sept. 16 and Oct. 4, data from travel intelligence firm ForwardKeys shows.
The situation has worsened since Iran’s drone strike attack on Israel in April and following tit-for-tat military strikes between Israel and Iran, said Seif Saudi, the managing director of Amman-based in Jordan Direct Tours.
“Things were starting to look up for October, but the second attack erased all those gains.”
LONG-TERM DAMAGE
The tourist industry across the Middle East is struggling. Flight bookings to the region are down six percent year-on-year since the war erupted after Hamas-led militants attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, ForwardKeys data shows.
Bookings to Israel and Lebanon fell even more sharply than those to Jordan between Sept. 16 and Oct. 4, while Oman, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain have seen smaller declines.
The recent regional escalation of the conflict, including intensified Israeli attacks on Lebanon’s Hezbollah armed group, has dashed hopes for a recovery in the cooler autumn months, a key season for Middle East tourism.
International tour groups like Intrepid and Riviera Travel said they canceled tours to Jordan and Egypt after Iran showered Israel with ballistic missiles on Oct. 1.
Hotel occupancy rates in Petra have fallen on average to as low as 10 percent, estimates Abdullah Hasanat, president of the Petra Hotels Association.
“We are searching for a savior. All the investments in Petra are in intensive care. When tourism stopped, bookings stopped,” Hasanat, who owns a hotel himself, said. Most international carriers have halted flights to Beirut and Tel Aviv, but some, such as Ryanair, have also paused flights to Jordan, in part due to its proximity to Israeli and Lebanese airspace.
Hotel owners said Ryanair’s decision in particular meant far fewer Western tourists came to the country. Ryanair chief executive Michael O’Leary said in October it was a “sensible” move given the closure of airspace at the time.
Before the war, Christian tourists making pilgrimages to Israel often also tagged on a trip to Jordan.
WHAT’S NEXT
Business owners say the damage will be long-term.
Future bookings have evaporated, forcing hotel managers like Al-Hinti to dip into their financial reserves to continue paying salaries. She is keeping her hotel open, but with fewer floors available.
“We are facing next year with a drop of not less than 90-95 percent (in bookings),” said Nabih Riyal, CEO of Plaza Tours, which runs holidays with European and American operators.
Jordan’s tourism sector has survived previous crises related to the prolonged conflict between Israelis and Palestinians, Tourism Minister Lina Annab said.
“This calls for us to really focus on our most resilient markets, which are not as affected by the situation,” Annab said, adding that visitors are still coming from neighboring countries.
Some Western tourists are undeterred too.
“We knew that the trip would be canceled if it was really risky,” said Dorothy Lawson, a tourist from California, walking around Petra in late October. “They said we could come. So we came and we’re really glad we did.”
But businesses that rely on big crowds are struggling to survive.
“We used to have 4,000 visitors every day,” said Marcus Massoud, a salesman in one of Petra’s many souvenir shops.
“Now we have 300 to 400. It’s not like before.”