Triangulating the future: what the Islamabad-Riyadh-Ankara axis means for the region

Too many alliances, not enough deterrence? Well, I hate to disappoint cynics, but the reality is they are missing the big picture regarding recent announcements coming out of Saudi Arabia and the new realities taking shape in the region.

Of course, after the war ends, there needs to be a review of what actually serves as an effective deterrent. Now, while the Gulf’s relationship and cooperation with the US are set in stone and ironclad, nobody can dismiss the need for additional — and different— security arrangements, and a new way of thinking, at a time when warfare itself has completely changed. Case in point is the use of drones, which means that bigger, or richer, is no longer necessarily mightier.

As for those who say that the 2023 Beijing Declaration or the defense pact signed with Pakistan last year did little to protect Saudi Arabia, I can only respond by asking: Are you sure?

Needless to say, Saudi Arabia — in its own right — is a religious, economic, military, and political heavyweight. That is sufficient reason for it to have been hit less than some neighboring countries. But who is to say that the Beijing Declaration, despite its later violation by Tehran, did not contribute to softening the blow? Or that a defense treaty with a nuclear power such as Pakistan, which happens to have a long border with Iran, did not contribute to protecting the Kingdom as well?

But before we dive deeper, we should remember that Riyadh has actually retaliated against both Iran and Iraqi militias, and done so unilaterally and not as part of the joint US-Israeli campaign. The Saudi response was done while giving Tehran and Baghdad prior knowledge, and with utmost care to avoid civilian casualties.

This is a sign that reinforces the fact that Saudi Arabia is capable on its own and will absolutely respond to aggression, but the measured response is also a sign that Riyadh has no intention — at this moment — of escalating the conflict, which it does not currently see as serving its national interest.

Saudi Arabia will absolutely respond to aggression, but its measured response shows that Riyadh has no intention of escalating regional tensions. 

Faisal J. Abbas | Editor-in-Chief

Remember, Saudi Arabia ranks 25th in the world in terms of firepower, with superior weaponry in both quantity and quality. This is exactly the point we all need to remember: It is not what arsenal you possess, or the number of alliances or pacts you are in that matters. What matters is when you decide to activate those agreements or reach for the gun.

The recently signed pact in Makkah with Turkiye and Pakistan and the Multinational Maritime Defense Alliance should not be seen as merely a way to outsource the fight on its behalf. This is a shallow view that fails to capture the whole picture. The new defense pacts strengthen collaboration and coordination among key strategic partners committed to regional stability.

In terms of the Red Sea, the regionalization and internationalization of the waterway’s security is the main purpose here. If the Bab Al-Mandab Strait is blocked, it is not just Riyadh that is affected but also countries such as Egypt and Djibouti and whole continents like Europe, as well as the energy and commodities markets.

While the agreement with Pakistan and Turkiye includes a collective security arrangement directly modeled on Article 5 of NATO, meaning that an attack on one is deemed as an attack on all, the bigger picture is not exclusively that, nor is it the current crisis.

Diplomats have been saying this is not an alliance against anyone in particular, and that is true, but to cynics who say it is too much bark and not enough bite: Do you actually want to try? And would they rather see a war erupt or stopped?

Needless to say, this alliance blends Saudi Arabia’s immense wealth and high-tech land and air fleets with NATO member Turkiye’s vast drone capability and industrial manufacturing base and Pakistan’s unmatched nuclear deterrence and human resource pool.

Instead of being cynical, pundits should be happy that two major regional powers, Riyadh and Ankara, have put their longstanding differences aside and decided to work together to bring stability.

Faisal J. Abbas | Editor-in-Chief

Then there is the missile aspect. While Saudi Arabia possesses long-range strategic ballistic missiles such as the Chinese-derived DF-series, which carry heavy conventional payloads, Pakistan is the sole nuclear engine of the trio, maintaining a steady arsenal of about 170 strategic nuclear warheads.

If integrated into a joint defense framework, the combined active personnel pool of the three countries exceeds 1.38 million soldiers, which would instantly create one of the largest standing military coalitions on Earth.

However, it is also true that all three countries see eye to eye and, perhaps more importantly, share a common interest in a stable, peaceful, and prosperous region — both for their individual sakes and even more so for the collective benefit.

In this aspect, we should be reminded that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the pact was open to “all brotherly countries that seek peace, prosperity, and stability in our region.” We should also note that Saudi-Pakistani military cooperation has long been established and Saudi-Turkish ties have developed immensely and rapidly in recent years.

Instead of being cynical, pundits should be happy that two major regional powers, Riyadh and Ankara, have put their longstanding differences aside and decided to work together to bring stability. Also, they should remember that it was not long ago that Islamabad was seen as a source of trouble, while now it is leading the way in peace talks and mediation.

Will other countries join the Makkah pact? I guess the rule of thumb is never to say never, and that time will tell.

What is certain is that the escalation in the Gulf is far from over and, so far, Riyadh and its allies are determined to avert an all-out war. The new alliances, like the old ones, are there to be used as a last resort, and never to make matters worse.

• Faisal J. Abbas is the Editor-in-Chief of Arab News. X: @FaisalJAbbas