There were surprises and nonsurprises in this year’s midterm elections in the US.
Democrats were expected to win and they did. All the indicators normally considered in a midterm election pointed in that direction. And when reviewing state-by-state polling in key contests featuring vulnerable Republican senators, Democrats had the edge in all of them — Maine, Ohio, North Carolina and Texas. What was not expected was that Democrats would also beat Republicans in Iowa, Kansas and South Carolina.
In the weeks before the elections, warnings were raised that the polls were inflating the Democrats’ chances in several states. This cautionary note proved to be unfounded. The polling averages suggested that, overall, Democrats would likely beat Republicans by 11 points. They ended up besting Republicans by 13 points.
Maybe the biggest miscalculation of this election was made by President Donald Trump, who assumed that he would be an asset to vulnerable Republicans by holding rallies in their states. As it turned out, his events proved to be more about him and his need to be center stage. And since Trump has a 32 percent favorability rating, the outcome was not a good one for Republicans.
This election has brought to the center of our political debate the role of unregulated and unreported money in politics
Dr. James J. Zogby
There was real concern that the White House might attempt to stymie the vote in some districts. Others worried there might be a “October Surprise” — renewed bombing of Iran, sending armed immigration enforcement officials to select polling places to intimidate voters or ordering the FBI to seize ballot boxes. None of this happened and so Election Day and its immediate aftermath proved uneventful.
Because Democratic candidates were raising more money than Republicans, the Grand Old Party turned to what are called super PACs (political action committees), corporate PACs and other nonreportable independent expenditure entities to give its candidates an advantage. As a result, this was the most expensive election in history. While the numbers are still being tallied, it appears that more than $14 billion was spent by both parties.
The New York Times published an early list of 20 billionaire donors to campaigns who collectively spent more than $2 billion in this election. While there were some Democrats in the group, most were Republicans. Elon Musk, for example, invested more than $450 million to support Republicans (half in Texas), while entities related to the Soros family put $100 million into Democratic campaigns. If anything, this election has brought to the center of our political debate the role of unregulated and unreported money in politics.
As expected, the issues that dominated this election were the cost of living, immigration, corruption and foreign wars. Most of these broke in favor of Democrats, which left Republicans trying to blame high prices on the Biden administration or to shift the discussion to the threat posed by immigrants. Such tactics may have worked in the 2024 election but the impact of the president’s tariffs on many consumer goods and the ever-increasing costs of gasoline, diesel fuel and home heating took their toll on the GOP.
Voters want authenticity: candidates who speak hard truths and whom they feel can be trusted to address their needs
Dr. James J. Zogby
The issues of US military aid to Israel and the role played by the pro-Israel lobby in intimidating and silencing politicians played a less significant role in the November election than it had in the Democratic primaries, in which support for Israel proved to be the undoing of several incumbents. In the Senate races, a number of Democrats who won this year were clear in their opposition to aid to Israel and their refusal to accept the support of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. But because they were not challenged by their Republican opponents, the issue did not become a central theme in the November election.
The major exception was the Senate contest in Michigan between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and his Republican opponent Mike Rogers. But it was not Rogers who made El-Sayed’s criticism of Israel the issue. Instead, that was left to the woman he had defeated in the Democratic primary, Haley Stevens, who continued to demand that he adopt her positions on Israel. When El-Sayed refused to do so, she endorsed Rogers, an act of political suicide that ended up benefiting El-Sayed’s campaign.
Policy matters aside, one meta issue helped shape this year’s contests. Voters on both sides of the partisan debate are fed up with politicians — especially the blow-dried, consultant-shaped characters who have long dominated the stage. Voters want authenticity: candidates who speak hard truths and whom they feel can be trusted to address their needs. One might argue that this was Trump’s appeal in 2016 and Joe Biden’s in 2020. And it is the edge that Trump has lost, with his expensive vanity projects and insensitivity to the economic hardships of many voters. If anything, this year was a classic “throw the bums out” election — leading to many establishment Democratic politicians being beaten in the primaries and the GOP’s establishment crowd being shown the door in the general.
Lessons must be learned from this election — and it appears the establishment consultants on both sides do not appear to understand. Democrats must not assume that this year’s victories will automatically repeat in 2028. The consultants who are telling Democrats that the GOP is dead and it is time to move to the center are wrong on both counts.
Voters chose Democrats willing to fight for a change in economic priorities: where healthcare is seen as a right and affordable for all; where resources are allocated away from war and weapons toward meeting domestic priorities; and where money from corporations and billionaires do not dominate our politics. If Democrats, now in charge, do not address these issues that brought them victory, they may pay a price in 2028.
Dr. James J. Zogby is co-founder of the Arab American Institute. He has served in official roles in numerous presidential campaigns and is Director of Zogby Research Services.
