The United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD), which backs ousted former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, will rally in the capital in what is expected to be its first lengthy demonstration since violent protests last April.
Jatuporn Prompan, one of the UDD's leaders, said protesters would gather in the provinces and around Bangkok on March 12 before merging on March 14 at Sanam Luang, an open area in the capital traditionally used for political rallies.
Another UDD leader, Nattawut Sakeua, added: "We want the government to dissolve Parliament and let people vote. If we get a million people and the government remains stubborn, we will meet to review our strategy." Analysts doubt it can bring a million demonstrators to the capital and are skeptical even that turnout would topple the government.
But the protest will be another setback for an unstable coalition hamstrung by internal disputes and an intractable five-year political crisis that most analysts believe could drag on for years and continue to squeeze foreign investment.
On Wednesday, UDD leaders backed away from calling the rally a "final battle," a term used on other occasions, and did not repeat a pledge to force the government out in seven days.
Jatuporn said the rally could extend all the way to a road outside Government House, the office of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva that the UDD occupied for three weeks last April.
UDD protests have added to the pressure on a government coalition already in disarray. Some dealers say political uncertainty, much of it blamed on the protests, has rattled investors and weighed on the stock market.
However, in a research note to clients on Wednesday, top broker Kim Eng Securities said Thai stocks "continue to do well despite the uncertainty," adding it was unlikely the "red shirt" protests could bring down the government.
The UDD says Abhisit's six-party coalition is illegitimate because it was not elected but put together by the army in a "silent coup" after a pro-Thaksin ruling party was dissolved and two prime ministers allied to him removed by court rulings.
Security forces are braced for a big turnout and a possible violent response to a court verdict due on Friday on whether to seize $2.3 billion in assets belonging to the family of Thaksin, whose popularity among the rural masses gave him an unprecedented two terms in office before his removal in a 2006 coup.
The "red shirts" have vowed not to protest on the day of the verdict and the rally date — two weeks after the ruling — was apparently set to show they were not demonstrating only on the former premier's behalf.
"This movement is against double standards in law enforcement and tampering in politics by those unelected and privileged elites," said Veera Muksikapong, another UDD leader.
"Thaksin is merely one of the victims." Anti-Thaksin forces said he was toppled because he was corrupt, autocratic and disrespectful to the monarchy, accusations he has denied.
Analysts said both the government and the "red shirts" were eager to distance themselves from any attempts to stir up violence after the verdict, with talk of impending chaos attracting huge media focus ahead of "judgment day."
Maj. Gen. Dittaporn Sasasmit of the Internal Security Operations Command (ISOC), the country's top security agency, said his organization believed the UDD was sincere in its non-violence pledge.
"We believe they will keep to that," he said on Tuesday.
"Other people might try to instigate confrontation, a 'third hand'. This is what ISOC is most concerned about."
