Al-Naimi has a sane voice, a stabilizing force in the energy world. He has his eyes set on the long run — for after all Saudi Arabia, and If I am allowed to borrow a term from the wild world of cricket, he has long innings to play in the energy world.
One could recall numerous incidences from inside the OPEC meeting rooms, where Al-Naimi had to use all his convincing talents, all the tools and the powers at his disposal, stamping at times his foot on the ground, to get the wrangling ministers to his line of thinking. This is not easy to muster — and one masters the art with time only. Al-Naimi has definitely mastered it — one could say with some inside understanding of what goes on behind the closed doors in OPEC ministerial.
And all this is of extreme importance to the health of the global economy, to the very survival of this crude driven civilization of ours. I vividly recall, being asked almost point blank at the IEA headquarters in Paris, immediately after finishing my talk some two months back; what would be the life after Al-Naimi being at the helm.
Indeed I had no last word. After all I don’t claim of bragging a crystal ball. Yet one thing was evident and I did underline too at the Paris headquarters of IEA that Friday morning — life after Al-Naimi would not be easy and the energy world may have to pass through some uneasy and turbulent times, before a new equilibrium is achieved. Until the moment Al-Naimi is at the helm, one could definitely see continuity and stability — so essential to proper functioning of the energy world, it was easy to underline.
After all he has been in the business, in one form or the other — indeed with very humble beginnings as a paper pusher, a tea boy — for more than five decades now. And this is a long, indeed exciting, worth emulating, yet a torrid journey. After all he is aging — and ultimately some one would need to replace him. That’s life. In the 70s, who would have thought of the Saudi Arabia and its energy riches without Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani? He was the pivot, the towering personality, the master of the energy world and every move in the turbulent energy world then revolved around him. Yet things continued to move after him too.
And hence eyes remain focused on and around him. I bear personal witness to this. Every couple of years, as the moment of reshuffle in the Saudi Cabinet approaches, there are rumors and speculations of all types in the air — revolving around the minister. Way back in 2003 too, one could vividly recall the diplomatic circles in Riyadh rife with similar speculations. Then too I was asked the same question: Is the minister on his way out? And in my archive, I still have an agency report, released once the reshuffle was announced that interestingly said: Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali Naimi has kept his post in a limited Cabinet reshuffle in Riyadh last week.
And today it’s the same. Early on Dec. 10 Reuters circulated a story revealing that Saudi Arabia is, "considering candidates to succeed long-standing Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi in a ministerial reshuffle that could happen in late February or early March next year." Two (anonymous) Saudi officials familiar with the situation were quoted as the source of the story.
Al-Naimi has been asked by the Saudi Supreme Petroleum Council, chaired by Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Abdullah, to nominate those he considers best-suited to replace him, the sources added.
And comments began flowing. "I think there will be Saudi Cabinet changes as soon as the first quarter of 2011. Al-Naimi is someone who has been looking to retire for some time," said Edward Morse, managing director at Credit Suisse and a long-time observer of Saudi oil policy.
"For the time being it is hard to envisage any change in Saudi Arabia's petroleum policy, in respect to its price targets or other areas like trading, as long as Al-Naimi is still in place."
“Al-Naimi is doing a superb job. Everyone in the Kingdom has the highest regard for him," says Saddad Al-Husseini, a former Aramco executive. "When your horse is winning, you don’t get off your horse," he added.
“He is the most consummate and professional oil minister. The hardest thing is for Saudi Arabia to find a successor,” says Lawrence Eagles of J.P. Morgan.
"He has been the key figure in OPEC and in many ways was responsible for steering the group back on course in the late 1990s after a period where it was perhaps viewed by the market as having lost a lot of its influence," said Michael Wittner, of the New York-based Societe Generale. "He helped OPEC get its act together and to become more businesslike. He showed them how to get business done."
One of his secretaries summed it up all in comments quoted by Reuters, “he has worked his way up and that’s what earns him the most respect among all of us. Power wasn’t just handed out to him, he worked hard for it."
And Minister Al-Naimi seems to be laughing off, the suggestions and the speculations about his imminent replacement. The final word is still to be out. Asked by reporters at an OPEC meeting in Quito, earlier this month, whether he planned to retire, Al-Naimi replied laughing: "Ministers don't retire."
And when pressed further, he emphatically added, "its rubbish, exactly rubbish."
And let me openly concede, I did not had any official briefing on the subject, yet my reading of the events, my gut feeling, my understanding of the man that the minister Al-Naimi is, leads me to the conclusion that if the minister says so, the professional in him, must be having reasons for that. And all the conjecturing and positioning may turn out to be "rubbish" — this time too.
