n Free and fair election: Much of the next regime’s credibility depends on how fair an election it holds.
n Dirty game: Of late, President Karzai has begun speaking in Taleban language, infuriating US. He did this possibly to win Taleban favor and save his own skin when out of power, post election.
n Security: The single most baffling issue is whether the new regime will be able to tame Taleban and Al-Qaeda elements. Think of NATO withdrawal and the specter begins looming.
n Insurgency: Waiting in the wings, will surge; already civilian casualties are increasing. An uphill task.
n Economy: In tatters, depends mainly on international aid and needs a master plan to manage it. Huh, a tough ask!
n Ties with US: Karzai weakened it. Signing pact to allow US to keep troops will top the agenda of the new regime, besides the issues like release of prisoners and any peace deal with Taleban will decide the future course of the bilateral ties.
n India: Leaving ‘Af to Pak’ would have benefitted Delhi in the long run. Playing a Bangladesh in Afghanistan will hurt it. But the next government will continue cozying up to Delhi.
n Pakistan: In no winning position either. More interested in harming India’s prospects than helping Kabul by any meaningful ties. Wrong policy.
n Credibility: Will have to give more teeth to democratic institutions like independent election commission, which is hardly independent.
n Taleban to watch: Will it go for reconciliation and be part of the transformation taking place?
10 Things facing Kabul
l Going to be arguably the most significant election in the history of Afghanistan. Also the first time that an elected president will replace an elected one.
l Constitutionally, Karzai cannot run for the 3rd term. But, leaders rarely retire. And Karzai is no Winston Churchill either. Wait and watch.
l It will never be a bed of roses for the new president, and his team.
l Post election phase will be critical; hence the new regime will have better ties with major countries.
l Ethnicities will continue calling shots as it matters most in Afghan politics.
l US is most concerned and hence watching the elections very closely.
l Afghan National Security Forces are vulnerable to insurgents’ attacks and civilian casualties are increasing.
l The security situation in the country is deteriorating. Most Afghans want foreign troops to stay.
l In world corruption index, it is currently in the lowest level along with N. Korea and Somalia.
l The Afghan economy is mainly dependent on international aid.
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