1. Jaswant Singh’s departure from the BJP has hurt Modi’s credibility more than one can imagine especially among the more educated voters who saw him as an ex-army officer and a gentleman.
2. Rahul Gandhi may not win the election but he will get the female vote in more numbers than expected and should cross the 120-seat mark spearheading the Congress. Indians love dynasty.
3. The three leading parties nave blurred their images by engaging in hostility, cheap shots and ugly incidents.
4. There is a complete lack of maturity, statesmanship or a blueprint projected for the future. The election is predicated to personal attacks and that negativity has the voter baffled. To him, they are all becoming the same.
5. The immediate removal of Imran Masood from Congress ranks for promising to ‘chop Modi to little pieces’ and his arrest have helped Rahul’s credibility but also it has to be said that as a piece of rhetoric it is more bad taste than a murder threat. He could have just meant he’ll destroy him at the hustings. So much of this verbal smearing is going on, there was no need to take him into custody.
6. Kejriwal seems to have lost his way and is more of a party pooper at present, simply fetching up after the others on the campaign trail to mess things up a bit. The media seems to have backed off him and nothing strong is coming out with a week to go. The Kejriwal coverage has dropped 70% since he lashed out at the media.
7. Will the election commission ask Modi, Kejriwal and the Congress how these elections have been funded and where did the money come from? Not likely, too many sins in that Pandora’s box.
8. The cost of this election to vote for this motley crew is not yet calculable. Over 200,000 paramilitary troops will be transported cross country on 100 special trains, a fleet of choppers will be pressed into service and a million civilians will be deployed to create the infrastructure. One 100, 000 will fail to lean up a country defaced by posters and graffiti on its walls and the remnants of the campaigning will stain every city and town in India. Cleaning up will cost upward of Rs 250 crores.
9. Corruption which was the forefront of the election issues has receded to the back rows and is not even given an honorable mentions. But the ‘water’ war in a country that could be in a critical state in 20 years, could have some impact on the voters. Today, 305 of the rural population still has water shortage and has to walk to wells often miles away.
10. The latest survey shows that 63% of Indians voted for Modi, 19% for the Congress and about 16% for Kejriwal. The 812 million voters are likely to make a 70% to 75% showing at the booths and a default of 2% in wrongly marked vote slips is likely. Remember Florida.
According to Goldman Sachs:
n With no single party winning a parliamentary majority since 1989, recent governments have involved coalitions of smaller regional parties led by either the BJP or Congress. The upcoming election is likely to be no exception.
n An analysis of opinion polls points to three potential election outcomes, according to Goldman Sachs.
n The first scenario is a strong BJP-led coalition with a few allies, which polls suggest is most likely. Under this scenario, the BJP-led NDA wins about 230 seats and gets some help from allies to reach the required 272 seats needed to form a government.
n The second scenario is a weak BJP-led coalition, where the BJP-led coalition wins around 180 seats and needs support from allies.
n The third scenario is Congress–led coalition, which polls suggest is least likely. Under this scenario Congress pulls together a majority with the support of the regional parties. This will likely be relatively less stable than other potential coalition combinations, due to the presence of a large number of regional parties, said Goldman.
n Indian voters may well have other plans and upset this applecart.
