Numbers are powerful tools to illustrate the economic consequences of policies and behaviors. Last Friday, during a virtual G20 health summit co-hosted by Italy — which holds the G20 presidency — and the EU, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released a report showing what it would take to share vaccines more equitably throughout the world.

The numbers raised were stark, but the opportunities promised bright prospects. While about half of the US population and 55 percent of the UK have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, fewer than 2 percent of people in Africa have received a jab. Some countries have not even reached the one percentile.

If anything, this shows just how the pandemic has fueled inequalities not only within countries, but also between them.

The question arises as to what can be done to avert a further falling behind of developing countries? Indeed, while poverty on a global level had been decreasing year after year, poverty levels are increasing again for the first time in a generation. The World Bank estimates that the virus will have pushed 115 million additional people into extreme poverty, while the World Food Programme fears that 270 people will face starvation, more than double compared with pre-pandemic levels.

No wonder that multilateral aid agencies are extremely worried about these numbers: The IMF’s paper proposed $50 billion in funding to support vaccination efforts for developing countries. The Fund said $35 billion should be dispersed in the form of grants to the Access to COVID-19 Tools Accelerator, a partnership launched by the World Health Organization in April of last year to develop tools to fight COVID-19. A further $15 billion should be contributed by governments and multilateral development banks in the form of concessionary finance.

The mathematics, as laid out in the report, are convincing. The IMF hopes that, with the help of the program, 40 percent of the world’s population could be vaccinated by the end of 2021 and 60 percent would get there by the middle of next year. According to the Fund’s calculations, this should result in $9 trillion in extra global gross domestic product between now and 2025 — split 60 to 40 between developing and developed countries.

Health sector experts and economists alike agree that unless the whole world is protected against the virus, societies will not be able to return to normal, which will be costly.

Cornelia Meyer

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told Bloomberg Television in an interview that these economic gains would translate into $1 trillion of extra tax revenues in developed countries, because their economies will recover more quickly than they would otherwise.

Economic forecasts are always difficult and rarely hit the precise dollar mark. However, the pandemic had a devastating effect on the global economy and health sector experts and economists alike agree that unless the whole world is protected against the virus, societies will not be able to return to normal, which will be costly.

The $50 billion investment is designed to go into distributing excess vaccines from the developed to the developing world, the production of extra doses to satisfy global demand, and the establishment of test and trace systems in developing countries, as well as the boosting of their vaccination infrastructure once the desired doses arrive.

If we put the $50 billion against the $16 trillion which the IMF estimates governments have spent so far in supporting households and business in pandemic support, it seems money well spent. If we look at the potential gains in terms of $9 trillion, the program would represent a tremendous return on investment. Even if the numbers turn out to be lower in the end, the proposal is still a bet worth taking — especially as the international community would have done “the right thing.”

Let us also not forget that the IMF released the paper just as US President Joe Biden supported the demands of India and South Africa that pharmaceutical companies should forgo their patent rights on COVID-19 vaccines, which will necessitate lengthy debates in the World Trade Organization and other bodies. In contrast, the $50 billion promises a lot of bang for the buck in a relatively short time frame.

• Cornelia Meyer is a Ph.D.-level economist with 30 years of experience in investment banking and industry. She is chairperson and CEO of business consultancy Meyer Resources.

Twitter: @MeyerResources