The stroke suffered by Iraqi President Jalal Talabani is a cause for serious concern. The Iraqi government of Nuri Al-Maliki, a Shiite, has been sleepwalking back toward chaos and intercommunal strife. Since an arrest warrant was issued for deputy Vice President Tareq Al-Hashimi, a Sunni who then fled abroad, Al-Maliki has led national unity government in name only.

As a result of what was seen as an attempt by Al-Maliki, to consolidate the Shiite hold on power, most leading Sunni politicians have been marginalized. The autonomous Kurdish region has meanwhile been going its own way, even to the extent of making exploration and production oil deals with foreign majors, without consulting the central government in Baghdad.

A veteran politician, Talabani, as a Kurd, has been a powerful symbol of the aspiration for Iraqi unity. Indeed, some believe that had it not been for his influence, Iraq’s Kurdish region would have gone far further in its quest for greater, if not complete, independence.

Had Iraq progressed any reasonable distance along the path of a pluralist democracy, within the constitution that voters backed overwhelmingly in 2005, Jalabani’s stroke would not be a problem. But now, if the president, who is 79, is incapacitated for a long period, as can often happen with strokes, or is even forced to relinquish office, then the prospects for Iraq are suddenly very uncertain.

Some radical elements among Shiite politicians may see the aging president’s indisposition as a chance to expand their community’s power. If he has to be replaced, the new president will be chosen by a council made up of legislators. With Sunni politicians increasingly isolated from the political process and Kurdish legislators more interested in the future of their own region, it would seem almost inevitable that a new president would be a Shiite. This would, of course, harden the view among Sunnis that, in truth, the country no longer has a government of all the people. Deepening division will spell more trouble because it will play into the hands of the men of violence, the murderous thugs from Al-Qaeda.

Yet ordinary Shiite’s should be just as concerned. A stable and prosperous Iraq can only come through unity, through an all-inclusive political process. It would be unwise to rejoice at Shiite domination, because this will actually imperil unity. Iraq has only taken a few hesitant steps away from the inter-communal bloodbath of the death squads. It will not need much provocation to plunge the country back into the savage chaos that followed the US-led invasion. Al-Maliki and his colleagues will therefore have betrayed the constitution and all Iraqis, because there is no victory if the country is divided.

For those Shiites who, with Iranian encouragement, are thinking that payback time is fast approaching, for all the humiliations their community suffered under Saddam Hussein’s Sunni-dominated dictatorship, a terrible reality is waiting.

It is probably not too late for the Al-Maliki government to avert a new tragedy through a substantial change of direction. However, what is needed is a level of vision and statesmanship that has sadly been lacking so far during his premiership.

His first big move would be to organize a pardon for Hashimi who, in September, was found guilty in absentia, of running death squads and sentenced to hang. Because Iraq never went down the route of truth and reconciliation, it may be necessary for a wider pardon to be granted to all those associated with death squads, with the exception of members of Al-Qaeda terrorists and die-hard elements of the old Baathist regime. Odious though this may be to decent Iraqis, it is not Iraq’s past that is the real issue here, but its future.

Rehabilitating Hashimi would be a clear signal to the Sunni community and its leaders that they are still part of the political process. If Talabani dies or has to quit the presidency, choosing a Sunni or another Kurdish replacement, would keep balance in the administration.

Thereafter there are the more mundane issues of governance that Al-Maliki has so far failed to tackle. Relations with the Kurds, especially over the question of international oil contracts, have to be restored. Meanwhile, the bureaucracy, corruption and tough contractual terms which are driving oil majors away from field in southern Iraq, sorted out.

With a more stable political and economic picture in place, the re-vitalized National Unity government cld then turn its mind to the pressing issue of tackling the rising tide of terrorism.