The so-called Islamic State (IS) is witnessing a rebirth at a time when it should be diminishing or disintegrating. After months of relentless US-led airstrikes against its positions in Syria and Iraq, the terrorist outfit is not showing visible signs of weakness. In the last two weeks, the IS has made a number of gains on the ground; defying all predictions that it was on the run.
In Iraq the group had taken control of Ramadi, the capital of Al-Anbar governorate, almost without resistance as the army and police pulled out of the city under dubious circumstances — that puts IS militants at about 100km west of Baghdad. Iraqi officials have admitted that the sudden withdrawal from Ramadi by Iraqi forces was “unjustified” and US Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter accused the army of lacking the will to fight.
IS militants have moved closer to Al-Habaniyah military base, which is considered a gateway to Baghdad. Tens of thousands of Al-Anbar residents have fled to the capital while Iran-led Shiite militias have moved into the province in preparation for a bloody showdown. The outcome of this battle will be crucial in many ways, but one thing is assured; it will deepen the Shiite-Sunni divide that has been crippling Iraqi politics for years.
Meanwhile, IS fighters were able to capture the strategic Syrian city of Tadmur with its world heritage ruins of Palmyra, as Syrian government forces pulled back suddenly even after repulsing the first wave of attack. Few days later IS militants took over Al-Walid border point; allowing them to link large swaths of territory between eastern Syria and western Iraq. The fall of Al-Walid puts the IS less than 70km north of Jordanian borders with Iraq.
President Barack Obama has described the fall of Ramadi as “a tactical setback” while the Pentagon admitted that the Iraqi Army was in no mood to fight. Theoretically the Popular Mobilization Force (PMF), the Iraqi Army and local tribesmen, assisted by the international coalition, will eventually overrun the militants in Ramadi. But the reality is that the Iraqi Army is weak and the political leadership of the country is under pressure. This underlines the sectarian politics that grip Iraq today. The country’s Sunnis have serious doubts about the government of Prime Minister Haidar Al-Abadi’s ability to keep Iraq united, achieve reconciliation and limit Iranian influence.
In Syria, the fall of Tadmur is seen a serious blow to the Assad regime. The militants now have access to most of Syria’s Badaiya, extending as far south as Darra and the Jordanian borders. It also means that they are less than 200km from Damascus. Whether the Syrian regime has allowed them to take over Tadmur or not is not clear. But the reality is that IS fighters are now in control of almost 50 percent of Syria.
And last week’s suicide attack at a mosque in eastern Saudi Arabia, which was claimed by the IS, is a sure sign that that the militant group is expanding and finding sympathizers outside Iraq and Syria. IS influence now extends beyond these countries and the group has become a serious threat in Egypt, Libya and Algeria.
In Iraq sectarian confrontations have provided the militants with the necessary environment to expand and recruit locals in Sunni areas. Unless a new accord is reached allowing all Iraqis to become part of a non-sectarian political process without foreign interference, the militants will continue to be a major threat to Iraq’s unity and stability. Failing to do this, IS will continue to present itself as an ally for Iraq’s Sunnis and this will pave the way for a de facto partition of the country.
In Syria the situation is different. The regime, which has lost territory to the opposition in the north, east and south, will now try to defend the capital and the coastal plain. Despite the fiery rhetoric it is clear that its army is exhausted and demoralized. IS will maintain control of recently gained territory and the coming showdown will be between its fighters and those of other opposition groups. Syria is slowly being divided into areas of influence with various groups fighting for control over territory.
The international community must take these developments seriously. The IS has not been defeated or weakened and is on its way to destabilize the entire region. A new strategy is needed to confront this menace, which requires finding political solutions to the conflicts gripping Iraq and Syria. This will need regional coordination as well as international determination to commit additional resources and perhaps troops on the ground. IS leadership is using the conflicts in both countries to its advantage and it is time that the world steps in to resolve them.
