Does the EU still make people and nations dream of joining? Following Iceland’s vote to reject a return to accession negotiations last week, many are stating this openly. The EU has become a bureaucratic dictatorship that is destroying national identities and sovereignty. Now, for insular countries such as Iceland and the UK, which exited the EU in 2020, that might be true.
Part of it is undoubtedly true: to keep the bloc together, Brussels has become more top-down than bottom-up in terms of representation. Members of the European Parliament attest to this. Yet, when it comes to joining the EU, there is also what I call “Why buy the cow when you can get the milk for free?” And this probably applies to many of the countries that are part of the European Economic Area and Schengen but outside the EU.
Countries such as Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein, as members of the European Economic Area, obtain most of the practical advantages of the European market without being full EU members, meaning they do not need to accept common integration policies in key areas such as customs and monetary union and do not need to fully participate in the political institutions. As a consequence, they are not bound on important and influential domestic topics, such as agriculture and fishing rights. Fishing is and will continue to be a key issue for Iceland.
Switzerland has a similar model through bilateral agreements with the EU, rather than joining the European Economic Area. And as all these countries are part of Schengen, they do not feel the need to apply for membership.
Perhaps, with these small, wealthy countries, it is the EU that is keen on offering this very attractive middle ground and Iceland’s referendum result illustrates this logic clearly. What might change this mindset is not the dream that guided most of the countries to join the EU in the late 1990s and early 2000s — it is the nightmare of the major crises that could happen, with the bloc seen as a potential safeguard in such a situation.
Hence, it was in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2009 and the collapse of its banking system that Iceland announced that it intended to join the EU. While most of the negotiation points were cleared, a more euroskeptic sentiment has recently become dominant within the population.
Switzerland is currently considering a new package of agreements with the EU known as the Bilaterals III. The package, if approved, will deepen cooperation in areas such as electricity, health, research, food safety, transport and the single market. But it will also introduce certain rules that will align the country with evolving EU legislation. Surveys indicate that this would be approved in a popular vote, even if the package is still currently being considered by parliament, with a vote expected in 2027.
However, the arguments of the “no” camp are gaining traction. Their fear is a loss of Swiss sovereignty, arguing that Switzerland could end up adopting EU rules without having a vote in making them, which would destroy the direct democracy it is today.
The EU, while having strong legislative power over its members and being all-powerful, lacks real leadership.
Khaled Abou Zahr
Basically, by accepting these rules, popular domestic initiatives or other direct votes could become ineffective if their outcome conflicts with EU agreements because the country’s international obligations would take precedence.
Switzerland is effectively an island within Europe and I would not blame the Swiss if they rejected this new framework and sought to preserve their independence and neutrality. We are being forced to recognize that, beyond trade and economics, the dream of Europe has disappeared. The view that the EU would become a single space recognizing every nation and giving opportunities to their citizens has gone from sweet to bitter.
It is undeniable that we tend to take everything for granted and quickly forget that the EU and its predecessor brought peace to nations that had been fighting for centuries and it is today a stronger bloc despite all its flaws. But the effervescence and celebrations of nations every time they cross a milestone that brings them closer to membership have dissipated and we have moved to a transactional vision.
This is very clear with Turkiye, which is one of the main candidates for EU membership. The dynamics in this relationship have shifted over the past 20 years. While President Recep Tayyip Erdogan set EU accession as a major objective in the 2000s, he recently stated that membership of the bloc is “not a priority.”
Turkiye remains an EU candidate country but negotiations have stalled, with the commercial relationship between the two governed by the 1995 customs union, which covers most industrial goods and cooperation on migration/refugees, trade, security and mobility. There is no doubt that, when it comes to migration and defense — especially the war in Ukraine — Turkiye has greater leverage with the EU and this is very clear in their current respective geopolitical standings.
Even in countries in Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans, where membership is a key pathway linked to prosperity, security and political stability, the excitement is not the same and countries are increasingly questioning whether the long and uncertain path to membership is still worth it.
While surveys do show trust in the EU, we notice that Europeans mostly trust their local institutions — the ones in which they have a direct say. The EU, while having strong legislative power over its members and being all-powerful, lacks real leadership. This is especially the case regarding the relationship between France and Germany, the two key driving forces behind European integration, over Ukraine and the tensions in global supply routes. They are now facing off over their respective economic interests in the rearmament of Europe, while geopolitical files seem left unanswered. This bickering, along with a void in leadership and vision, may be what makes others question whether they still want to be a part of the EU.
Khaled Abou Zahr is the founder of SpaceQuest Ventures, a space-focused investment platform. He is the CEO of EurabiaMedia and editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.
