Iran reeling from a slew of sanctions imposed by the UN sought to find a face saving option during its latest talks that ended in an impasse with the P5+1 last week in Kazakhstan.
In the meeting Iranian negotiators proposed new ideas to the P5+1 only to be turned down by the big powers.
Tehran appeared ready to meet the minimum requirements of the international community in order to get the curbs lifted.
If anything, the Iranian officials have been trying all this time to have the international negotiators recognize Tehran’s right to enrich uranium. If this materializes, then Iranian leaders will present these concessions as a victory or Iran over its opponents in the region. But for that to take place, Iran needs to prove that its program is peaceful in nature.
Ahead of Friday’s round of negotiations in Kazakhstan, some Western diplomats criticized Iran for not positively responding to the demands to scale back its attempts and ambition to go nuclear. It seems that Iran’s proposal presented at the first day of the meeting in Kazakhstan fell short of what was expected to ally the Western concerns of Iran’s nuclear program. The give-and-take in the first day yielded no marked breakthrough. The Iranians came up with a vague proposal with no substantive change from Iran’s well-known declared policies.
The United States, which looks as if it seeks to reach a deal with Iran before it is too late, opted for a positive approach. Although an agreement has yet to reach, the State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland insinuated that the meeting was productive. In the last round of talks held in Kazakhstan in February, the P5+1 offered Iran a set of proposals to lower tensions over the program. Senior Iranian officials considered these proposals as a possible turning point. And yet, Iran failed to come up with a detailed response to these proposals. Instead, the Iranian team stuck to its talking points in which Iran asserted its previous positions.
In last round of talks in February, the P5+1 sought to reach a tradeoff with Iran whereby Iran would agree to limit its nuclear program and minimize enriching uranium as a quid pro quo for easing the economic sanctions. The six world powers even promised to significantly ease sanction in the future.
Iran still needs to understand that the set of proposals set out by the six world powers were meant to serve as a confidence-building measure for further future cooperation with Iran. And yet, Iran is more interested in instant relief from the stinging sanction as a part of any deal that could be reached.
If anything, the Iranian leadership is in a need for a victory before elections take place amid unprecedented challenges since the Iranian revolution took place some 34 years ago. For many Iranian observers and voters, the weeks ahead are crucial to see whether Iran is able to do something in easing the stinging sanctions that have crippled the Iranian economy.
The electoral battle in Iran is expected to be hot this summer. It is not as if Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is out of politics after he steps down. Indeed, he is trying to help his top adviser Esfandiar Rahim Mashei win and succeed him. Therefore, an Iranian victory in the talks in Kazakhstan was expected to beef up Ahmadinejad’s influence on voters. But this is easier said than done. If the two sides fail to reach an agreement, Iranian people will notice and feel the repercussion of Iran's foreign policy.
An in-depth look at the Iranian strategy since the onset of negotiations with the six world powers reveals one conclusion: Iran is buying time. Unless it is pressured, Iranian leadership- that is suffering from shifting alliances- is not expected to react in a way to ally regional concerns about its nuclear program. Short of applying more sanctions, Iranian leaders will have no real incentive to cooperate.
Iran's strategy of buying time was evident in the last two rounds of talks with the six world powers. The offer presented by Iran is just to keep the process on with no intention to reach a deal that limit Iran's nuclear capabilities. For this reason, some Western diplomats dismissed the Iranian latest offer as lacking substance. At best, we can describe the current round of talks as being inconclusive. And yet, Iran should pay attention to the fact the President Obama- who is committed to the strategy of prevention- estimated that Iran will have almost one year before reaching the no return point in its nuclear program.
