The outcome of the ongoing parliamentary polls will prove to be a make or break situation for three key politicians. Failure or incomplete success in their goals may also result in the end of their political careers at the center and a major setback for their respective parties. The three politicians are: Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s prime ministerial nominee Narendra Modi, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) chief Arvind Kejriwal.
Modi and Rahul have also campaigned for their respective parties in preceding parliamentary elections but it is for the first time that their respective campaigns have been marked with such an aggressive fervor.
Modi has entered the center stage for the first time as BJP’s prime ministerial nominee and as key politician in charge of his party’s campaign. It is for the first time that he is contesting elections to the Lok Sabha. True, Modi served as a key campaigner for his party in 2009 parliamentary elections. But then the BJP’s campaign did not stress on bringing about a change.
The current polls pose a huge challenge for Modi’s own success, individually and that of his party. Even if Modi wins from the two constituencies, Vadodara in Gujarat and Varanasi in Uttar Pradesh (UP), his actual success will be gauged by the number of seats won by the BJP. Failure of the BJP to win enough seats to form a government is likely to be attributed to the nature of his campaign. The anti-Modi segments within the BJP have begun discrediting Modi even if the party succeeds. Party stalwarts such as Murli Manohar Joshi have strongly voiced that BJP’s political future is least likely to be influenced by Modi-wave. In Joshi and other anti-Modi party activists’ opinion, BJP-wave and not Modi-wave will be responsible for the party’s success.
BJP’s failure will certainly give anti-Modi elements within the party ample reason to question Modi’s political credibility to head the party campaign in future and also become its prime ministerial nominee. BJP’s success, attributed to party-wave, will prompt the same rivals to sideline Modi and promote their own political legitimacy to play a key role in the formation of the next government. Naturally, Modi and his supporters are least likely to welcome this.
They are apparently hoping for a major tide in favor of the Modi-led BJP campaign. This, in their analysis, will play the role of silencing opposition from anti-Modi intra-party rivals. If BJP fails to win significantly, it might spell the end of Modi’s tryst with his political destiny at the center. It is a now or never again political fight for Modi. Failure in parliamentary polls may confine Modi’s political reach to Gujarat. Not surprisingly, Modi has expressed his willingness to be hanged in public if he is found guilty of Gujarat carnage. An apology for the same, according to Modi, would serve no purpose.
Unlike Modi and Kejriwal, Rahul is contesting Lok Sabha polls for the third time from Amethi (UP). He succeeded from here in 2004 and in 2009. Since his entry into politics in 2004, he has been actively campaigning for his party, Congress. Even though analysts are not projecting a victory for Congress, Rahul’s own political future may face a crisis if his party performs poorly.
Compared to Congress and BJP, AAP has recently entered the political stage. Success of AAP in winning even a few seats may help it strengthen its base in future elections. Total failure would symbolize voters’ decision not to give much importance to this new party. Thus 2014 Lok Sabha polls may define the political destiny for Modi, Rahul and Kejriwal.
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