India's West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banarjee recently visited Bangladesh apparently to mend fences with her country’s closest neighbor. But a breakthrough is not likely on the long-festering water-sharing issue until the Legislative Assembly election in her state next year. Over 10 million Bangladeshi people rely on Teesta River for their livelihood.
It is only Mamata who should be blamed for not signing the long-awaited Teesta Water Sharing Agreement with Bangladesh. Although, she has nothing to do with it officially, the Indian government will ink the deal only on her recommendation as the river flows through West Bengal.
Her government is not in favor of the agreement because over 8 million people on the Indian side live in the Teesta basin and if affected, they will definitely turn their back on any party signing a deal. West Bengal has already used over 100,000 hectares of land for farming in the Teesta basin and has plans to bring several hundred thousand hectares more under a massive irrigation project further depleting water for the Bangladesh side. It raises a question whether India will give in to Dhaka’s demand for its due share of Teesta waters displeasing its own people. Mamata is a shrewd politician and knows how to swim with the tide. She is now trying to benefit from the land boundary agreement (LBA), which is expected to be passed by the Lok Sabha in its next session.
Previously, during Manmohan Singh’s tenure, both current Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Mamata had opposed the bill. But since becoming prime minister, Modi has modified his foreign policy doctrine from reactive to proactive and has given a nod to the LBA. It is now certain that Mamata’s opposition to the bill will have little impact and probably she has realized that and agreed to back the bill.
The LBA was inked by the then Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina during the former’s visit to Dhaka in September 2011 and it is still awaiting ratification by the Indian Parliament. The deal will enable both the countries to swap enclaves occupied by them. Teesta deal was supposed to be signed during the Singh’s visit, but at the last minute, Mamata’s opposition to the deal didn’t make it happen. Bangladesh is to benefit more from the LBA than India. Once it is ratified, India will cede 111 enclaves covering 17,160 acres to Bangladesh and receive 51 enclaves accounting for 7,110 acres. Nearly 52,000 people will get rights and privileges as citizens in both countries of their choice.
Bangladesh’s gains from LBA may be an issue in the 2016 Legislative Assembly elections in West Bengal. Mamata knows what will be the consequences of inequitable land swaps and is apparently hesitant about making a clear and prosaic commitment on the Teesta deal during her first-ever Dhaka visit as West Bengal chief minister considering the fact that it may be another blow to her “vote bank.” On the other hand she is not rejecting it outright as she doesn’t want to antagonize ‘Bengalee voters’ who have roots and sympathy for Bangladesh.
“Trust me Didi (sister),” was Mamata’s reply when the water sharing issue was raised at a dinner hosted in her honor by Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina during Mamata’s recent visit. Both ladies exchanged views, greetings and gifts. Mamata presented Bangladesh PM with a replica of a boat, a symbol of her Awami League party, promptly drawing a tetchy response from Hasina: “Give us first enough water to sail the boat smoothly.”
Mamata is very fond of Hilsa, national fish of Bangladesh. She complained to Hasina that Hilsa had been in short supply from Bangladesh to Kolkata nowadays. “It’s true. If there is shortage of water in the rivers, there will be shortage of Hilsa supply?” quipped Hasina.
Mamata, during her trip to Dhaka, didn’t make any pledge to give Bangladesh its fair share of Teesta waters and her expressions and diplomatic conservations are indicative enough that there will be little change to the status quo regarding the long overdue water sharing deal.
