This has reference to Masood Khan’s letter (Oct. 31) about the judgment in which the Italian lower court has sentenced six scientists to six years imprisonment and heavy fines for being guilty of misguiding the public about the earthquake that hit L’Aquila in 2009 killing 309 people.
Prima facie, the ruling certainly sounds absurd or rather ridiculous. However, a closer look at the judgment would reflect the fact that the conviction was not based on the failure by the scientists to predict the earthquake or its intensity or the exact timing, yet, it was more focused on their failure to communicate or provide explanation on different probabilities and situations for the people to make proper choices. It seems that those seismic experts had deliberated for a long time on an alert raised by another expert about Radon gas emission and agreed that tremors do not help in predicting whether or not there would be major earthquake.
The accusation which must have weighed heavily against them was the fact that the experts had left the town leaving the matter to be explained by a nonscientific civil defense official who did not have sufficient knowledge. I believe, on matters related to natural calamities, it is advisable to be extra cautious and take all possible precautions even if the chances of such calamities occurring are very thin and remote.
The anger of the scientific community over the judgment on the premise that it puts science on the dock is understandable as well as their argument that given the knowledge and technology that has been developed till date, there is no way to be precise in predicting earthquakes. It is also worrisome that such a conviction would result in scientists and experts shying away to take important positions and provide their expertise on disaster prediction and its management.
However, viewed from another angle, it will go a long way in obliging the public officials to fulfill their responsibilities with utmost diligence and care. — Safi H. Jannaty, Dammam
