It seems that President Mahmoud Abbas is trying to turn the table on US Secretary of State John Kerry over the current impasse in the peace efforts. The Palestinian newspaper Al-Quds reported last Wednesday that Abbas had threatened to thwart talks with Israel if the latter continued its obstructing policies.
In last July, Israel pledged to release Palestinians prisoners. But a few days ago, the Israeli government has scrapped a planned release of Palestinian prisoners, a move that enraged Abbas and threw Kerry’s effort into disarray. In response to the Israeli move, Abbas is bidding to join some 15 international treaties and institutions.
Implicit in Abbas’ decision is his frustration with the American hesitant role and Washington’s failure to be an honest broker. Not a while ago, Abbas turned down as “madness” the drafts stipulating Palestinian to approve Israeli conditions to recognize it as a Jewish state and enable Israel to maintain some 10 settlement blocs in any land exchange in the context of a deal.
Contrary to the public impression, Abbas is in no mood to beat around the bush. He feels that he was dragged for a long time for nothing. For him, it is time to show the world that the Palestinians are not without options. “Enough is enough,” Abbas’ advisers said. The illusion of peace cannot be more obvious. To be sure, the Americans are not comfortable with the Israeli decision not to release Palestinian prisoners. And yet, Kerry is not going to give up. Jay Carney, spokesman for the State Department said, “There has been progress in narrowing some of the questions that have arisen as a result of the events of the last few days…neither side has indicated that they want to walk away from the talks. They both indicated they want to find a way to move forward.” Abbas is taking calculated steps. Sources close to him reveal that Abbas is taking a risk designed to push the American side to offer him a tangible concession in exchange for refraining from further moves that could thwart Kerry’s efforts. Seen in this way, Kerry may rush back to the region to rescue his efforts. It remains to be seen whether Kerry’s envoy, Martin Indyk, can do anything for the time being. He rushed to invite the Palestinians chief negotiator Saeb Erekat and the Israeli negotiator, Tsipi Livni, for an emergency meeting. The Palestinian negotiator sought to know if the Israeli and American sides are prepared to offer the Palestinians anything as a quid pro quo for suspending this bid to various treaties and institutions.
Long time observers of the Palestinian politics argue that Abbas is confident that the US will not allow Israel to derail the process altogether. Hence, he seeks to set new conditions that improve the Palestinians status in future talks. Not surprisingly, Abbas may step up his campaign in weeks to come to make it perfectly clear that the old game no longer interests him. Abbas is most likely to add two conditions for extending the peace talks to the end of this year. First, Israel to release hundreds of Palestinian prisons. Second, Israel is to fully cease all kinds of settlement activities. While Abbas believes that he is taking the initiative and that the US needs him, his last move may convince the anti-peace camp within Israel that the Palestinians cannot be partners for peace. If anything, this anti-peace camp will step up pressure on Netanyahu to further intensify settlement activities. The logical conclusion will be a mutually hurting stalemate.
Under these conditions, Kerry may find it difficult to continue with his efforts. Of course, he can blame any side he wishes, but this can hardly help change the dynamics of conflict on the ground.
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