The decision of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to field its prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi from Varanasi in Uttar Pradesh (UP) in the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections has raised many questions.
Although all indicators point to his victory from that constituency, the selection of Varanasi has emerged as a big question mark. It is believed that BJP leader Murli Manohar Joshi, who won the previous Lok Sabha polls from Varanasi, was keen on contesting again from this constituency. However, he has been convinced to toe the party line for strategic reasons and moved to Kanpur, the constituency currently held by Congress leader Sriprakash Jaiswal.
However, rumors are doing the rounds that such “strategic” moves have created unrest among the BJP cadre, as many people are unhappy over the growing strength of Moditva wave. It is not just Joshi but other senior leaders like L.K. Advani and Jaswant Singh have also expressed their displeasure over their removal from the constituencies of their choice. Though the BJP has tried dismissing reports of differences within the party over distribution of tickets, several party workers have expressed their anger by taking to the streets in Delhi and Lucknow (UP).
Varanasi, viewed as a holy city by Hindus, has been deliberately selected to help the BJP make gains in the UP as well as Bihar by riding atop religiopolitical fervor in favor of Modi. The two states are represented by 120 members in Lok Sabha, with 80 from UP and 40 from Bihar. The BJP has less than 25 members from UP and Bihar in the outgoing Lok Sabha. Modi himself has apparently opted for Varanasi for two reasons. First, it is a holy city for Hindus. Secondly, Varanasi is viewed as a “safe” constituency from UP for Modi, primarily because BJP leader Joshi was elected from here in the previous Lok Sabha elections. If the BJP is so confident about the Modi magic, why is it trying to use the religion card and selecting a safe constituency for him?
Importance given to the caste factor in Varanasi’s sociopolitical atmosphere cannot be ruled out. Joshi, an upper-caste Hindu won from Varanasi in 2009, while Congress-candidate Rajesh Kumar Misra, also an upper-caste Hindu won Lok Sabha polls from here in 2004. By fielding Modi, who belongs to the backward classes know as the “Other Backward Classes” (OBC), the BJP is taking the risk of losing support of upper-caste Hindus. Rumors are afloat that sections of upper-caste Hindus within the BJP are getting irritated over the importance the party is giving to gaining support of the OBCs. Recently, Tara Kant Jha, moved over from the BJP to join Janata Dal-United (JD-U) in Bihar.
He quit the BJP, according to a party leader, because it had started ignoring Hindus of the upper caste. If the BJP does not mend its ways, Hindus of the upper caste might opt for Congress or other parties. Politics in UP as well as Bihar is too caste-ridden, for BJP and other parties to ignore.
Despite all the media hype, it is not likely to create the impact that saw the BJP coming to power around a decade ago. Besides, the impact of Muslim vote and secular Hindus’ voice cannot be sidelined in Varanasi. Though Joshi won 2009 elections, he secured only 30.52 percent of votes, with 27.94 percent votes in favor of then Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) candidate Mukhtar Ansari. The Samajwadi Party (SP) candidate Ajai Rai got 18.61 percent of votes. It was a close fight between Joshi and Ansari, with the latter losing by only 17,200 votes.
Ansari, now a Qaumi Ekta Dal (QED) leader, has decided to try his luck again in Varanasi. He expects religious polarization to turn Muslim votes in his favor. Muslims constitute nearly 20 percent of this city’s population. Greater importance is being given to plans of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) leader Arvind Kejriwal to challenge Modi in Varanasi. BJP’s rival parties, including Congress and SP are expected to reach a political understanding to support one candidate with the aim of defeating Modi in Varanasi. By selecting Varanasi for Modi, it seems that BJP hopes to win seats in UP by banking on its religious agenda.
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