The news of Pakistani Taleban not agreeing to extend a month-long cease-fire in the country has not surprised many in the country. Despite hectic efforts by government to engage the insurgents, chances of reaching a concrete, long-term agreement had always remained bleak. The fragile peace process had faced several hiccups on the way, with the first round failing after Taleban attacked a police bus and executed 23 members of a government paramilitary force. To continue the shaky peace process, local militants are now demanding Pakistani authorities to release about 800 prisoners and withdrawal of military from semi-autonomous tribal areas neighboring Afghanistan.
The Pakistani government, however, seems to be desperate to revive the peace process. In a gesture aimed at creating goodwill between the two sides, the government has released about 16 Taleban prisoners. After battling insurgency for now over a decade, the authorities seem to be tired of the long war that has reshaped the country’s social, economic and political scene. With the cease-fire now suspended, the government fears an escalation in militant attacks across Pakistan, which could shift focus from economic revival and other national priorities.
Ever since the peace process was initiated, public opinion about its success and seriousness of Taleban in reaching a compromise with the government had been questioned. Some senior military officials are also known to express their reservations about the peace efforts. In their view, the answer to long-lasting peace lies in having a final confrontation with the militants. Fearing a strong Pakistani military backlash, the local Taleban agreed to negotiate with the government and announce a now revoked cease-fire. The military offensive would have weakened Taleban’s position.
The peace talks also hold importance in the overall geopolitical context. With the US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan and the recent Afghan presidential elections, the year 2014 is critical for the region’s future. Some political commentators also believe that Pakistani Taleban are using the peace talks as a tool to mainly to buy time and prepare for a large-scale spring offensive in Afghanistan. The cease-fire provides them a perfect opportunity to consolidate their bases in tribal Pakistan.
The response of Taleban to new moves by the Pakistani government and results of Afghan presidential elections would set the tone for future of peace talks. Having once backtracked from the peace process, the Taleban need to show their commitment to reaching a concrete understanding with the government. Until then, Pakistani authorities are only daydreaming about the success of peace initiatives and would need to reconsider their strategy of countering insurgency.
