Two recent developments are most likely to plunge Turkey into the fight against Daesh. First, Ankara granted permission for the United States to use two Turkish air bases for bombing Daesh in Syria. This particular development means that the level of coordination between Washington and Ankara is getting stronger.
Second, the Turkish forces are taking on the militants inside the Syrian border. Undoubtedly, the Turkish role could be a decisive one given the proximity of Turkey, which could provide the United States more sorties and better intelligence.
It remains to be seen however whether the new coordination between Ankara and Washington will have a far-fetched consequences on the survival of Assad’s regime. Although Obama made it perfectly clear that his country is focusing on Daesh rather than Assad’s regime, Ankara may find itself in a different confrontation in weeks to come. For years, Ankara and Washington have been at odds with regard to the Syrian crisis.
While Turkey sought to topple Assad’s regime, the United States has opted for a different course. Obama’s insistence on the presence of a “moderate” opposition as a requirement for getting rid of Assad has been widely seen as a support for the regime and its allies.
The situation is also more complicated with many in the West point finger at Turkey’s role in the Syrian crisis and the rise of Daesh. Many observers in the West argue that Turkey has become a vital conduit for Daesh’s recruits who come from the foreign countries. Ankara’s seemingly unwillingness to intercept the flow of foreign fighters who join Daesh has led many to suspect that Turkey has ulterior motives in Syria.
And yet, Turkey has been clear on the sequence of events. To Erdogan, the survival of the Assad regime and the support of Iran and Hezbollah have been the key reason for the emergence of Daesh. Hence, the Turkish government argues that if the West is serious about eliminating Daesh it should complement this effort with toppling Assad’s regime.
While Turkey is a member of the NATO and a close ally of the US, the two countries’ priorities in Syria are not aligned. Turkey believes that dealing with its own restive Kurdish population and toppling of Syrian is what matters most for its own national security. Over the last few years, Turkey has not interfered militarily in the Syrian crisis even in Kobani when the West looked at Turkey to do something against Daesh.
However, over the last few days, Ankara has shifted course and executed a different foreign policy more in line with the US’ objectives thus becoming an active partner in the US-led coalition against Daesh. Turkey will work on securing a buffer zone, an objective that Turkey has for long demanded as a means to put more pressure on Assad’s regime. It seems the US has to agree on a buffer zone as a quid pro quo for Turkey’s joining the war efforts on Daesh. There may be some logistical difficulties in securing the buffer zone and it is not clear yet what role the US will play to that end.
The new deal between Turkey and the US can be a game changer. To be sure the effectiveness of the American airstrike will be far more than before because the air bases in Turkey are very close to the Syrian borders. It means that the US can respond faster to intelligence e information.
Turkey’s entry into the war will not be devoid from other challenges.
It may step up its attacks on Kurdish nationalist groups, which are aligned with the Americans in the fight against Daesh. Some of these Kurdish groups are considered as terrorist by the Turkish government.
Hence, Turkey may crack down on all terrorists without distinction, a process that may disturb the United States in weeks to come.
