As the political and social crisis in Ukraine has escalated, Kiev urgently needs to take emergency measures to save its shattered economy and restore law and order in the turmoil-stricken country.
Although Kiev repeatedly reaffirmed its aspirations to follow the European integration path, some Ukrainian experts seems to believe that the country’s economy could plunge into the abyss and the state could break apart without normalization of the relations with Russia. The Ukrainian Parliament and the European Parliament on Tuesday simultaneously ratified the Association Agreement. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, who immediately signed the bill into law upon ratification, and described it as a “historic moment,” saying, “The Ukrainian people have managed to reverse the express-train going toward the east.”
The deal, the rejection of which last November by former President Viktor Yanukovych sparked massive demonstrations, which led to his ouster, was strongly welcomed by Ukrainian society and the majority of experts. Vadim Karasev, director of the Institute of Global Strategies said that Ukraine’s European choice was irreversible.
But some experts were not so optimistic; pointing out that the ratification was more like a diplomatic move to satisfy Ukrainian society rather than a real start of Kiev’s European integration process.
“The ratification is just a formality,” said Eric Naiman, a financial expert at the Kiev-based Capital Times analytical center.
As a concession to Moscow, the EU and Ukraine have agreed to delay the implementation of part of the deal till the end of next year.
Despite the enthusiasm for a free trade area and full EU membership, many experts in Ukraine are well aware that the country’s economy, which is going through the most painful recession in a decade, will collapse without stable partnership with Russia.
Both sides seem to understand that they should revitalize their ties through political dialogue rather than confrontation. Moscow now holds a far stronger position on the negotiating table.
Russia is one of Ukraine’s top trade partners and largest supplier of energy. Without resumption of Russia gas supplies, Ukraine would go through a bitter winter, because reverse gas flows from Europe cannot fully satisfy Ukraine’s energy needs. In addition, the expected economic benefits from duty-free exports to the EU will not cover the damages of the potential loss of the Russian market, said experts.
Meanwhile, Kiev also has its own leverage over Moscow. Some experts believe that imposing sanctions on Russia and cancelation of Ukraine’s non-aligned status may be Kiev’s bargaining chip. However, it seems Kiev does not want to further spoil relations with the eastern neighbor. Kiev made a step Tuesday toward ending the conflict between government troops and independence-seeking insurgents that has killed over 3,000 people, offering major concessions to rebels. Amnesty is given to insurgents who have not committed “serious crimes,” while the other bill offers a “special status” to eastern regions.
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Courtesy: Xinhua
