It is hard to avoid the conclusion that the peace process is often held hostage to the imperatives of Israel’s domestic politics. An Israeli premier cannot push for peace persistently and secure his or her political survival at the same time. Less than two decades ago, Yitzhak Rabin lost his life because he signed the Oslo Accords.

More often than not, successive Israeli prime ministers face fierce opposition within their ruling coalition. When Netanyahu signed the Wye River agreement with Arafat in November of 1998, his ruling coalition collapsed. Back then; the regional environment was conducive for peacemaking. And yet, intra-coalition considerations, differences and rivalries made it hard for Netanyahu to continue.

Today, the regional environment is not the same. Nor is the Israeli society. The Palestinian Intifada, erupted after the collapse of the Camp David talks in 2000, has helped the Israeli society move to the right. Hence, if we examine the structure of the current Israeli government, we may reach a conclusion that there is no peace coalition in the first place.

Key members of the Israeli government are creating hurdles to further constrain Netanyahu. In an interview with Yediot Ahronot, Israeli Justice Minister Tzipi Livni severely criticized Naftali Bennett, the minister of the economy and the head of the Bayit Yehudi Party, for his threats to quit the coalition over prisoners’ release. In her words, “Bayit Yehudi represents those who are trying to prevent the (peace) process from us. These are the same ideological views that gave birth to the Yitzhar rioters who are trying to prevent an accord.”

It is not as if the Israeli government has disagreements only with their Palestinian counterpart over a possible deal on prisoners’ release. For Livni, it is a battle with Bennett as well. “We are trying to put Israel on the world map and in doing so, we are facing a complex battle with Bennett,” she said.

It remains to be seen whether Bennett’s threat is real. But Bennett is not alone in his opposition to the proposed deal about releasing Palestinian prisoners. Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, head of Yisrael Beiteinu, pledged that he would not approve the deal either. For Lieberman, Bennett’s threat to quit the government is not real. He argued that Bennett still could oppose the deal while keeping his party in the ruling coalition. It seems the Lieberman suspect that Bennett’s possible departure from the government could lead to early elections.

Key to any future success of peace negotiations is the proposed deal. For the Palestinian side, it is a make or break situation. Under the US-brokered deal that jumpstarted the peace talks in July; Israel pledged to release the fourth group of Palestinian prisoners. This deal would include the release of 104 Arabs held before the 1993 Oslo peace accords as a quid pro quo for the Palestinians not pressing for their statehood claims at the United Nation.

But the peace talks ran aground last month after Israel reneged on its promise to release the prisoners. The Palestinian reaction was quick. The Palestinian Authority applied for Palestinian membership in several United Nations agencies and treaties.

That said, a deal is not unlikely. The release of prisoners will enable the United States to exert more effort in the stalled process. In exchange for the release of the prisoners, the Palestinian Authority is to extend the April 29 negotiation deadline to the end of the year and the American administration will release Jewish-American spy Jonathan Pollard.

In a nutshell, the future of the peace negotiations relies on Netanyahu’s ability to deliver on his promise of releasing the prisoners. His problem now is not with the Palestinians but with his own coalition. A failure to convince a majority of his coalition to support the deal would make him weaker internally.

Equally important, other sides to the conflict will then realize that regardless of who is in the premiership seat, Israel can no longer produce a peace coalition.

Email: [email protected]