Passenger traffic is expected to double by 2020. How will the air transport system cope under such pressure? Some pointers may be found from past experience, given the fact that the system has expanded to accommodate a 170 percent increase in air traffic over the last 20 years, without breaking down at the seams. Pressure on the system increases as traffic levels rise and airlines increase service frequency, but there is no parallel movement to develop infrastructure.

At the airport, the pressure is reflected at various levels, such as check-in through passport and immigration, apron facilities or lack of runway capacity at peak times. In the air, we get en-route congestion along major international routes and especially around busy airports at peak times.

There are many ways in which increasing pressure can be handled over the long term. The most obvious is to expand existing airports or build new ones. But some of these options may not be available in especially congested areas, such as Europe, where the scope for expansion of existing airports or development of new airports is getting increasingly restricted. In such cases, ways have to be found to use existing capacity more efficiently.

One measure that is proving helpful in easing congestion at airports and on flight routes is strategic alliances. Once primary traffic flows are covered, these alliances attract smaller airlines to cover specialist markets. These smaller regional airlines fly in passengers from less congested hubs to connect with their alliance partners on the major routes.

Alliances thus capitalize on, rather than compete with each other’s hubs. This enables airlines to attract premium fare passengers with improved and coordinated products and better service on connecting flights, thereby increasing their revenues. Costs are further trimmed through capacity sharing and elimination of duplicated flights.

One other advantage of alliances is that the partner airlines tend to integrate their information technology systems. With greater integration, comes greater synergy in functioning, paving the way for possible mergers and the establishment of global brand identities. Alliances also permit a sharing of learnings, with members internalising cooperative concepts tested by other partners.

However, the constraining factor in the emergence of global airline entities is the regulatory limitations on airline ownership placed by various countries.

Another important market sector that contributes to growth in airline traffic yet helps ease congestion is charter airlines, or what are called leisure airlines. These airlines have around 500 aircraft in Europe alone, almost a fifth of the total European fleet. Leisure airlines are generally non-scheduled flights, although they are not exclusively confined to this category. Their seats mostly go to bulk-buyers as part of a holiday package that vertically integrates tour operators, airlines and hotel chains. They also tend to coalesce into alliances spanning all segments of the leisure market to effect economies of scale.

But eventually, the way to cope with congestion will come with new technology and communication systems that could change the way airports operate and the way airplanes fly.

At the global level, measures to alleviate route congestion include reducing the vertical separation between aircraft — reduced vertical separation minima (RVSM) — from the current 2,000ft (600m) to 1000ft (300m) in airspace above 28,000ft (8,500m).

Improved communication technology will also enable the aviation industry to take the next big leap in this direction — the introduction of a system of free airspace, or free flight.

The first small step in this direction is the Future Air Navigation System (FANS), which utilises global positioning satellites and a network of ground stations communicating with on-board computers aboard aircraft to give exact situational information to aircraft in flight and around airports. Pilots can thus choose their flight paths and flight levels with greater independence and not be completely tied down to the flight paths determined by the Air Traffic Controllers.

This permits more aircraft to use the available airspace, reducing congestion in the process. True free flight would take this process even further.