Can Israeli PM Netanyahu achieve his stated war objectives with Rafah assault?

Analysis Can Israeli PM Netanyahu achieve his stated war objectives with Rafah assault?
For the Netanyahu government, however, Rafah represents a last opportunity to declare the war won and, in the process, to ensure Netanyahu has a political future. (AFP). (AP)
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Updated 13 May 2024
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Can Israeli PM Netanyahu achieve his stated war objectives with Rafah assault?

Can Israeli PM Netanyahu achieve his stated war objectives with Rafah assault?
  • Despite claim there are four brigades in Rafah, it is unclear how many operational fighters Hamas still has
  • Some Israeli analysts say Israel needs to make Hamas ideologically and politically irrelevant, not do the opposite

LONDON: This week, before-and-after imagery released by US commercial satellite company Planet Labs showed the extent of the damage inflicted in just one day by Israeli forces on the outskirts of Rafah, close to the Egyptian border.

This is not the city of Rafah itself — yet. Awaiting a resolution of the political standoff between their government and the US, which has threatened to stop supplying ammunition if Israel invades Rafah, the 98th Airborne and the 162nd Armored divisions are massing to the south of the city.

In the satellite imagery captured on Tuesday, groups of tanks can be seen in the vicinity of the Rafah crossing, which Israeli troops occupied and closed on Monday, and grouped in several other strategic locations.

While they are waiting, however, they have been laying waste to much of the surrounding infrastructure and indulging in some symbolic wanton vandalism: in a video released on Tuesday a tank rolls over a “I love Gaza” sign near the crossing.




Netanyahu has gambled his political future on two objectives tied to a continuation of the devastating and murderous assault on Gaza — the destruction of Hamas and the killing of its top commanders. (AFP)

The contrast between the satellite images taken on Monday and Tuesday is striking. In the course of one day, hundreds of homes, commercial buildings, agricultural plots and other structures on dozens of sites either side of the Salah Al-Din highway were destroyed.

“This,” said a spokesman for the Israeli government on Tuesday, “is the beginning of our mission to take out the last four Hamas brigades in Rafah.”

But although Netanyahu has gambled his political future on two objectives tied to a continuation of the devastating and murderous assault on Gaza — the destruction of Hamas and the killing of its top commanders — after seven months of all-out warfare those objectives seem increasingly unattainable.

Despite the Israeli claim that there are four brigades in Rafah, it is unclear exactly how many operational fighters Hamas still has, or exactly where they are. It is also not clear if they have chosen, as some commentators have suggested, to make a “last stand” in Rafah, or even, after seven months of war, if they have the weapons and ammunition necessary to do so.




Groups of tanks were seen in the vicinity of the Rafah crossing. (AFP)

Even less certain is the location of Hamas military leader Yahya Sinwar, from whom nothing has been heard since the invasion of Gaza began.

Sinwar, Israel’s public enemy number one, has become a ghost, so much so that on Thursday US National Security Communications Adviser John Kirby made a public plea for him to “come clean about what his intentions are.”

Writing in The Spectator this week, Middle East analyst Jonathan Spyer suggested that, “contrary to what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might wish, Sinwar, his brother Mohammed, and the Hamas military leader Mohammed Deif are almost certainly not currently besieged in a bunker in Rafah, surrounded and obliged to either agree to the Egyptian (ceasefire) proposal or be crushed beneath the treads of the 98th and the 162nd.”

In fact, added Spyer, director of research at the Middle East Forum, “it is not even certain if the Hamas leaders and their hostages are even still in the Rafah area, or ... in some other part of the strip.”

Gaza, although barely larger than the small Mediterranean island of Malta, has nevertheless proved to be a frustrating landscape for Israeli operations.




“The only way to defeat the Hamas ideology is with a better ideology, and that is to make the two-state solution real to Palestinians,” said Gershon Baskin. (AFP)

On Thursday it emerged that even before the Oct. 7 attack, Israel had tried, and failed, to assassinate both Sinwar and Al-Deif, the commander-in-chief of Hamas’ Al-Qassam Brigades.

In remarks made to a Jewish organization in the US and broadcast on Israeli television’s Channel 12, Israel’s former military chief of staff Aviv Kochavi said a perceived “change with Hamas” in 2021 had led to the decision to try to kill the two men.

“We tried, and it’s hard,” he was reported as having said.

“In a densely populated, heavily built-up area it is very hard. So, we had been working for months in order to procure the operation but we couldn’t.”

Kochavi also added his voice to the growing chorus in Israel critical of Netanyahu’s increasingly unpopular determination to continue military operations in Gaza.




Yahya Sinwar, Israel’s public enemy number one, has become a ghost. (AFP)

“I don’t think there is a way to bring back the hostages without halting for the time being the war,” he said. Furthermore, he added, “I don’t think we can achieve complete victory in months — forget it, it will take years.”

For the Netanyahu government, however, Rafah represents a stage for political theatre — a last opportunity to declare the war won and, in the process, to ensure Netanyahu has a political future.

INNUMBERS

• 120 People taken hostage by Hamas on Oct. 7 still unaccounted for.

• 252 Israelis and foreigners taken hostage in the attack, according to Israel.

• 80,000 People known to have fled Rafah since last Monday after Israeli warning.

“They're looking for a victory,” said Yossi Mekelberg, a professor of international relations and an associate fellow of the Middle East and North Africa Program at London-based policy institute Chatham House.

“They are looking for a photo op: ‘Here is his head, we’ve cut off the head of Hamas, now it’s all over’.”

Although the message from Biden “is very clear — for the United States to even suggest imposing an arms ban on Israel is a huge thing,” Netanyahu is also facing a potential internal revolt by his right-wing cabinet members, such as National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Givr and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who oppose any ceasefire with Hamas.




Despite the Israeli claim that there are four brigades in Rafah, it is unclear exactly how many operational fighters Hamas still has. (AFP)

Ultra-religious, “they are on a different planet,” said Mekelberg. “It’s not between them and other human beings, it's between them and God. And they are telling Netanyahu if he compromises too much with Hamas they will leave the government, and that there is no point in them staying in government if we don't enter Rafah.”

Whether they would find Sinwar there is anybody’s guess, says Gershon Baskin, a former adviser to Israeli, Palestinian and international prime ministers on the Middle East peace process.

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“I'm sure that he's not just sitting and waiting,” he said. “He has certainly booby-trapped tunnels and bunkers in the whole area between Rafah and Khan Younis, and maybe they also have access to places north of there. We don’t know.”

But if Sinwar is in Rafah, “from my experience with the man there is no way he is going to surrender. He will fight to the death. I think that he believes that he will never survive this war. He’s not afraid of death. In fact, he believes that it’s his duty to become a martyr and he will try to kill as many Israelis along the way as possible.”




For the Netanyahu government, however, Rafah represents a stage for political theatre. (Reuters)

According to Baskin, an all-out ground attack on Rafah would be “catastrophic, for any hostages and the civilian population. There’s no doubt about it. I have heard there are about 40,000 people left in the quadrant that Israel said they wanted people to move out of, and you have another 1.2 million at least in the city of Rafah and its surroundings.”

Humanitarian considerations aside, Mekelberg believes that, even if Rafah is attacked and razed to the ground, Sinwar is killed and victory declared, assaulting the city would be a strategic mistake — and would not deliver the hoped-for existential blow to Hamas.

“The main threat to Israel from Hamas comes from its ideology and politics, not from its military,” he told Arab News.




The contrast between the satellite images taken on Monday and Tuesday is striking. (AFP/Maxar Technologies)

“The military you can deal with. But the Israelis need to convince people that this ideology doesn’t serve the Gazan people or Palestinian people generally, and that there is an alternative that offers hope, and it is doing very badly at that right now.

“Israel needs to make Hamas ideologically and politically irrelevant and it is doing exactly the opposite, making them more and more relevant.”

Baskin agrees.

“The only way to defeat the Hamas ideology is with a better ideology, and that is to make the two-state solution real to Palestinians, to show them that their fight, their struggle for independence and dignity, is on the road to victory,” he told Arab News.

That, he added, “is the only way to defeat Hamas” and, with the right leadership in Israel, and an alternative to Mahmoud Abbas for the Palestinians, doing so would be “easy.”

“All Israel has to do is declare that it recognizes the state of Palestine, and then every other country in the world would do that as well,” he said.




“The main threat to Israel from Hamas comes from its ideology and politics, not from its military,” Yossi Mekelberg told Arab News. (AFP)

“Then what I would do is organize a regional conference, including all of our neighbors, hoping that the Saudis would participate, and asking the Americans and Europeans to join in but not to run the show, and negotiate borders and Jerusalem and refugees and economic relations.”

The stumbling block to all this, he says, is Netanyahu, “who since 2009 has done everything he can to avoid the possibility of a two-state solution and for whom this war is definitely about his own personal political interest.”

 


Israel strikes car on Damascus airport road: state media

Israel strikes car on Damascus airport road: state media
Updated 7 sec ago
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Israel strikes car on Damascus airport road: state media

Israel strikes car on Damascus airport road: state media
  • An Israeli air strike hit a car on the Damascus airport road on Tuesday, causing it to explode
DAMASCUS: An Israeli air strike hit a car on the Damascus airport road on Tuesday, causing it to explode, Syria’s official news agency SANA reported.
“A car exploded after it was targeted in an Israeli aggression on the road to Damascus International Airport,” SANA reported, citing a police source, without saying who was targeted or if there were any casualties.

Hamas, Fatah agree on joint committee to run post-war Gaza

Hamas, Fatah agree on joint committee to run post-war Gaza
Updated 03 December 2024
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Hamas, Fatah agree on joint committee to run post-war Gaza

Hamas, Fatah agree on joint committee to run post-war Gaza

CAIRO: Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas and Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas’s Fatah party have agreed to create a committee to jointly administer post-war Gaza, negotiators from both sides said Tuesday.
Under the plan, which needs Abbas’s approval, the committee would be composed of 10 to 15 non-partisan figures with authority on matters related to the economy, education, health, humanitarian aid and reconstruction, according to a draft of the proposal seen by AFP.


Iraqi armed group urges government to deploy troops to Syria

Iraqi armed group urges government to deploy troops to Syria
Updated 03 December 2024
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Iraqi armed group urges government to deploy troops to Syria

Iraqi armed group urges government to deploy troops to Syria

BAGHDAD: Iraq’s powerful Iran-aligned Kataeb Hezbollah armed group has called on Baghdad to send troops to Syria to support the Damascus government against a militant offensive.
Kataeb Hezbollah, or Hezbollah Brigades, made the appeal in a statement shared on pro-Iranian Telegram channels late Monday. Excerpts were also posted on its official website.
The militant offensive, led by Islamists, has seized the northern Syrian city of Aleppo, stirring concern in political and security circles in neighboring Iraq.
A spokesman for Kataeb Hezbollah, part of the Iran-backed “axis of resistance,” said the group had not yet decided to deploy its own fighters but urged Baghdad to act.
“We believe the Iraqi government should take the initiative to send regular military forces in coordination with the Syrian government, as these groups pose a threat to Iraq’s national security and the region,” the spokesman said.
Kataeb Hezbollah has previously fought in Syria alongside forces loyal to President Bashar Assad.
In Iraq, it is part of the Hashed Al-Shaabi, a coalition of former paramilitary forces now integrated into the regular armed forces.
This coalition, under the Iraqi prime minister’s command, denies involvement outside Iraq’s borders.
Iraq remains scarred by the rise of the Daesh group in 2014, which saw the extremists capture nearly a third of the country before being defeated in 2017.
On Monday, Iraq said it had sent armored vehicles to bolster security along its 600-kilometer (370-mile) border with Syria.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based war monitor, reported the deployment of about 200 pro-Iranian Iraqi fighters in Syria’s Aleppo region to back government forces.


Syrian army and allied forces confront attack by SDF forces in Deir Al Zor, state news agency says

Syrian army and allied forces confront attack by SDF forces in Deir Al Zor, state news agency says
Updated 03 December 2024
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Syrian army and allied forces confront attack by SDF forces in Deir Al Zor, state news agency says

Syrian army and allied forces confront attack by SDF forces in Deir Al Zor, state news agency says

DUBAI: The Syrian army and allied forces confronted an attack launched by forces affiliated with the Syrian Democratic Forces alliance on villages in the northern countryside of Deir Al Zor province on Tuesday, state news agency (SANA) reported.
The SDF is a Kurdish-led alliance in north and east Syria which worked with the US-led coalition against Daesh. Spearheaded by the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) and including Arab fighters, it holds a quarter of Syria, including oil fields and areas where some 900 US troops are deployed.
Turkiye, Syria’s northern neighbor, considers the YPG and the SDF by extension to be “terrorist” groups.


They fled war in Sudan. But they haven’t been able to flee the hunger

They fled war in Sudan. But they haven’t been able to flee the hunger
Updated 03 December 2024
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They fled war in Sudan. But they haven’t been able to flee the hunger

They fled war in Sudan. But they haven’t been able to flee the hunger
  • Food in the markets is sparse, prices have spiked and aid groups say they struggle to reach the most vulnerable as warring parties limit access
  • Aid workers say funding is not enough

ADRE:For months, Aziza Abrahim fled from one village in Sudan to the next as people were slaughtered. Yet the killing of relatives and her husband’s disappearance aren’t what forced the 23-year-old to leave the country for good. It was hunger, she said.
“We don’t have anything to eat because of the war,” Abrahim said, cradling her 1-year-old daughter under the sheet where she now shelters, days after crossing into Chad.
The war in Sudan has created vast hunger, including famine. It has pushed people off their farms. Food in the markets is sparse, prices have spiked and aid groups say they’re struggling to reach the most vulnerable as warring parties limit access.
Some 24,000 people have been killed and millions displaced during the war that erupted in April 2023, sparked by tensions between the military and a powerful paramilitary group, the Rapid Support Forces. Global experts confirmed famine in the Zamzam displacement camp in July. They warn that some 25 million people — more than half of Sudan’s population — are expected to face acute hunger this year.
“People are starving to death at the moment ... It’s man-made. It’s these men with guns and power who deny women and children food,” Jan Egeland, head of the Norwegian Refugee Council, told The Associated Press. Warring parties on both sides are blocking assistance and delaying authorization for aid groups, he said.
Between May and September, there were seven malnutrition-related deaths among children in one hospital at a displacement site in Chad run by Doctors Without Borders, known by its French acronym MSF. Such deaths can be from disease in hunger-weakened bodies.
In September, MSF was forced to stop caring for 5,000 malnourished children in North Darfur for several weeks, citing repeated, deliberate obstructions and blockades. US President Joe Biden has called on both sides to allow unhindered access and stop killing civilians.
But the fighting shows no signs of slowing. More than 2,600 people were killed across the country in October, according to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, which called it the bloodiest month of the war.
Violence is intensifying around North Darfur’s capital, El Fasher, the only capital in the vast western Darfur region that the RSF doesn’t hold. Darfur has experienced some of the war’s worst atrocities, and the International Criminal Court prosecutor has said there are grounds to believe both sides may be committing war crimes, crimes against humanity or genocide.
Abrahim escaped her village in West Darfur and sought refuge for more than a year in nearby towns with friends and relatives. Her husband had left home to find work before the war, and she hasn’t heard from him since.
She struggled to eat and feed their daughter. Unable to farm, she cut wood and sold it in Chad, traveling eight hours by donkey there and back every few days, earning enough to buy grain. But after a few months the wood ran out, forcing her to leave for good.
Others who have fled to Chad described food prices spiking three-fold and stocks dwindling in the market. There were no vegetables, just grains and nuts.
Awatif Adam came to Chad in October. Her husband wasn’t making enough transporting people with his donkey cart, and it was too risky to farm, she said. Her 6-year-old twin girls and 3-year-old son lost weight and were always hungry.
“My children were saying all the time, ‘Mom, give us food’,” she said. Their cries drove her to leave.
As more people stream into Chad, aid groups worry about supporting them.
Some 700,000 Sudanese have entered since the war began. Many live in squalid refugee camps or shelter at the border in makeshift displacement sites. And the number of arrivals at the Adre crossing between August and October jumped from 6,100 to 14,800, according to government and UN data., though it was not clear whether some people entered multiple times.
Earlier this year, the World Food Program cut rations by roughly half in Chad, citing a lack of funding.
While there’s now enough money to return to full rations until the start of next year, more arrivals will strain the system and more hunger will result if funding doesn’t keep pace, said Ramazani Karabaye, head of the World Food Program’s operations in Adre.
During an AP visit to Adre in October, some people who fled Sudan at the start of the war said they were still struggling.
Khadiga Omer Adam said she doesn’t have enough aid or money to eat regularly, which has complicated breastfeeding her already malnourished daughter, Salma Issa. The 35-year-old gave birth during the war’s initial days, delivering alone in West Darfur. It was too dangerous for a midwife to reach her.
Adam had clutched the baby as she fled through villages, begging for food. More than a year later, she sat on a hospital bed holding a bag of fluid above her daughter, who was fed through a tube in her nose.
“I have confidence in the doctors ... I believe she’ll improve, I don’t think she’ll die,” she said.
The MSF-run clinic in the Aboutengue camp admitted more than 340 cases of severely malnourished children in August and September. Staff fear that number could rise. The arid climate in Chad south of the Sahara Desert means it’s hard to farm, and there’s little food variety, health workers said.
People are fleeing Sudan into difficult conditions, said Dr. Oula Dramane Ouattara, head of MSF’s medical activities in the camp.
”If things go on like this, I’m afraid the situation will get out of control,” he said.