What will UK foreign policy look like under Labour?

What will UK foreign policy look like under Labour?
Britain's opposition Labour Party leader Keir Starmer and his wife Victoria arrive to cast their votes at a polling station in London on July 4, 2024 as Britain holds a general election. (AFP)
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Updated 05 July 2024
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What will UK foreign policy look like under Labour?

What will UK foreign policy look like under Labour?

LONDON: The first month of a Keir Starmer premiership will be a whirlwind of international diplomacy including meetings with US President Joe Biden and European leaders.

His first steps on the world stage will be just days away, at the NATO 75th anniversary summit being held in Washington next Tuesday to Thursday.

Starmer will then play host at Blenheim Palace, near Oxford, in central England, on July 18, at a European Political Community meeting, with France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Olaf Scholz expected.

Labour, out of power since 2010, has pledged a foreign policy of “progressive realism,” seeing a more volatile world “as it is not as we would want it to be,” said David Lammy, who is expected to become foreign secretary.

The party has also pledged to “make Brexit work” and seek “an ambitious” security pact with the the European Union.

Here is a rundown of how a Labour government could approach the major international issues it faces.

Labour would undertake a “full audit” across all government departments of the UK’s relationship with China to “set the direction and course” of its China policy, Lammy told reporters this week.

Starmer last year said the UK needed to “wean itself off” China on issues like trade, commerce and technology while acknowledging the importance of being able to cooperate on issues such as tackling climate change.

The challenge will be to balance the UK’s trade and economic interests with security imperatives.

That could be complicated by a possible return of Donald Trump in Washington after the US presidential election in November.

Trump would be expected to ramp up pressure on allies to be tougher with Beijing.

Labour says it is committed to recognizing a Palestinian state “as a contribution to a renewed peace process which results in a two-state solution.”

But it has not set out any timescale for doing so.

Other commitments include pushing for an immediate ceasefire, the release of all hostages and an increase in the amount of aid getting into Gaza.

Starmer has pledged to work with France’s far-right National Rally (RN) party if it wins power.

“I will work with any government in Europe and across the world if we are elected... For me, that’s what serious government is about,” he said.

He said both bilateral deals with France and agreements with the whole EU, which the UK voted to leave in 2016 leading to a messy divorce, were important to address the issue of migrants crossing the Channel in small boats.

Pressed on RN leader Marine Le Pen’s preference for bilateral deals over EU-wide ones, Starmer said the two were not mutually exclusive.

He said existing bilateral agreements with France needed to be strengthened and improved “particularly in relation to smashing the gangs that are running the vile trade of putting people into boats.”

“But there are also EU measures,” he added. “The security agreement we want with the EU when it comes to dealing with smuggling gangs is really important.”

The UK has been one of Kyiv’s staunchest supporters and has provided money, weapons and troop training to help it repel Russia’s invasion.

Labour have stressed continued support for Ukraine if they win, and Starmer would be expected to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky early to reaffirm that message in person.

Starmer has said a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin is “simply not an issue” at the moment and described him as “the aggressor in Ukraine.”

“The most important thing is to be absolutely clear that our support for Ukraine is on a united front in this country,” he said.

A strategic defense review would be carried out within the first year of government to set out a path to an increase in defense spending to 2.5 percent of GDP.


China starts new round of war games near Taiwan, offers no end date

China starts new round of war games near Taiwan, offers no end date
Updated 5 sec ago
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China starts new round of war games near Taiwan, offers no end date

China starts new round of war games near Taiwan, offers no end date
  • Chinese military says the drills are a “stern warning to the separatist acts of Taiwan independence forces.”
  • Refusing to be cowed, Taiwan’s defense ministry said it had dispatched its own forces

TAIPEI: China’s military started a new round of war games near Taiwan on Monday, saying it was a warning to the “separatist acts of Taiwan independence forces,” and offered no date for when they may conclude, drawing condemnation from Taipei’s government.
Democratically governed Taiwan, which China views as its own territory, had been on alert for more war games since last week’s national day speech by President Lai Ching-te, an address Beijing condemned after Lai said China had no right to represent Taiwan even as he offered to cooperate with Beijing.
The Chinese military’s Eastern Theatre Command said the “Joint Sword-2024B” drills were taking place in the Taiwan Strait and areas to the north, south and east of Taiwan.
“The drill also serves as a stern warning to the separatist acts of Taiwan independence forces. It is a legitimate and necessary operation for safeguarding state sovereignty and national unity,” it said in a statement carried both in Chinese and English.
The command published a map showing nine areas around Taiwan where the drills were taking place — two on the island’s east coast, three on the west coast, one to the north and three around Taiwan-controlled islands next to the Chinese coast.
Chinese ships and aircraft are approaching Taiwan in “close proximity from different directions,” focusing on sea-air combat-readiness patrols, blockading key ports and areas, assaulting maritime and ground targets and “joint seizure of comprehensive superiority,” the command said.
However, it did not announce any live-fire exercises or any no fly areas. In 2022, shortly after then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, China fired missiles over the island.

Map of Taiwan showing zones identified in Chinese military exercises around the island, according to mainland media. (AFP Illustration/File)

In rare operations, China’s coast guard circled Taiwan and staged “law enforcement” patrols close to Taiwan’s offshore islands, according to Chinese state media.
Taiwan’s China policy making Mainland Affairs Council said that China’s latest war games and refusal to renounce the use of force were “blatant provocations” that seriously undermined regional peace and stability.
In the face of the further political, military and economic threats posed by China to Taiwan in recent days, Taiwan would not back down, Taiwan’s China-policy making Mainland Affairs Council said in a statement.
“President Lai has already expressed his goodwill in his national day speech and is willing to shoulder the responsibility of maintaining peace in the Taiwan Strait together with the Chinese communists,” it added.
Taiwan’s defense ministry said it had dispatched its own forces.
Lai’s national day speech highlighted the current state of cross-strait relations and the firm will to safeguard peace and stability and advocated future cooperation in coping with challenges like climate change, the ministry added.
“The Chinese communists’ claim of ‘picking quarrels and provoking trouble’ is a complete departure from the truth,” it added.
A senior Taiwan security official, speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity given the sensitivity of the situation, said they believed China was practicing blockading Taiwanese ports to the north and south of the island and international shipping lanes as well as repelling the arrival of foreign forces.
Taiwan on Sunday had reported a Chinese aircraft carrier group sailing to the island’s south through the strategic Bashi Channel which separates Taiwan from the Philippines and connects the South China Sea to the Pacific.
Chinese state media has since Thursday run a series of stories and commentaries denouncing Lai’s speech, and on Sunday the Eastern Theatre Command released a video saying it was “prepared for battle.”
The PLA’s Liberation Army Daily newspaper wrote on Monday that “those who play with fire get burned!.”
“As long as the ‘Taiwan independence’ provocations continue, the PLA’s actions to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity will not stop,” the paper said. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the war games. The US last week said China had no justification for using Lai’s national day speech as a pretext for military pressure.
China held the “Joint Sword-2024A” drills for two days around Taiwan in May shortly after Lai took office, saying they were “punishment” for separatist content in his inauguration speech.
Lai has repeatedly offered talks with China but has been rebuffed. He says only Taiwan’s people can decide their future and rejects Beijing’s sovereignty claims.


Lessons from Iran missile attacks for defending against China’s advanced arsenal

Lessons from Iran missile attacks for defending against China’s advanced arsenal
Updated 30 min 17 sec ago
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Lessons from Iran missile attacks for defending against China’s advanced arsenal

Lessons from Iran missile attacks for defending against China’s advanced arsenal
  • Middle East, Indo-Pacific differ, but Iran strikes offer clues
  • US may need ‘deterrence by punishment’ to counter China’s missiles — analyst

SINGAPORE: Iran’s missile barrage this month against Israel, after a similar large-scale attack in April, shows the value, as well as the shortcomings, of US and allied missile defenses in a potential Indo-Pacific conflict with China, analysts say.
Although differences between the two scenarios limit the lessons that can be learnt, the nearly 400 missiles of different types that Iran has fired at Israel this year offer the United States and China some idea of what works and what does not.
For Washington, the main takeaway from Iran’s Oct. 1 attacks — the largest sample yet of ballistic missiles fired against modern defenses — could be that Beijing’s missiles would be more difficult to intercept than Iran’s and that the ability to strike back would be needed to deter a mass attack, said Collin Koh of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.
“If we look purely through the lenses of deterrence, no longer can one pin hopes on deterrence by denial only — that is, the hope that effective defenses can blunt the efficacy of missile strikes,” Koh said. “Deterrence by punishment might have to become normative going forward.”
There is no immediate threat of missile conflict in the Indo-Pacific region. The distances, thousands of kilometers, are greater than in the Middle East. China’s weapons are more advanced, including manoeuvring warheads and precision guidance. And the target areas are scattered across the region, making a massed attack more difficult.
The United States has developed and deployed new weapons in the region this year to counter China, including the AIM-174B air-to-air missile and the ground-based Typhon missile battery in the Philippines, which can launch SM-6 and Tomahawk missiles.
The US Indo-Pacific Command and China’s Ministry of Defense did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

China’s missiles longer-range, less accurate
On the other hand, simply being better informed about how offensive and defensive systems perform after Iran’s missile fusillades — many were intercepted — may reduce the chance of conflict, said Ankit Panda of the US-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“Any military force planning long-range missile strikes will need to plan around the possible effects of missile defenses,” Panda said. “Of course, without clarity on how well a given missile defense system might perform, this could lead to massive escalation.”
Israel’s layered air and missile defenses — from its long-range Arrow systems to the Iron Dome shield meant to handle slower, less complex threats — are tailored to the threats it faces: guided ballistic missiles from powers such as Iran mixed with unguided rockets launched from just over Israel’s borders.
The picture is much different in the Indo-Pacific region for the US and its allies, which use the Lockheed Martin and Raytheon Patriot, THAAD and sea-based Aegis systems for missile defense.
The accuracy of China’s DF-26, its most numerous conventional intermediate-range ballistic missile, is estimated to be as good as 150 meters (500 feet), according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Missile Defense Project. Its DF-21 is shorter-ranged, though some variants have an accuracy of 50 m.
Both can hit most US and allied targets in the region. The DF-26 can reach Guam, the site of major US military facilities. The Pentagon has estimated that China may have several hundred of the missiles.
By contrast, Iran’s missiles such as the Fattah-1 are theoretically more accurate — within tens of meters — but are much shorter-ranged. The number of these newer missiles is not public, but US Air Force General Kenneth McKenzie told Congress last year that Iran had more than 3,000 ballistic missiles of all types.
China’s capabilities outstrip Iran’s in other ways, said Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. Missile attacks would most likely be coordinated with anti-satellite strikes and cyberwarfare, both designed to complicate defense.
“Western (integrated air and missile defense) systems in the Indo-Pacific would have a much tougher time defeating a large Chinese missile strike, comprising hundreds or even thousands of missiles, compared to what the Iranians are capable of,” Davis said.


Man with shotgun and loaded handgun arrested near Trump California rally

Man with shotgun and loaded handgun arrested near Trump California rally
Updated 55 min 37 sec ago
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Man with shotgun and loaded handgun arrested near Trump California rally

Man with shotgun and loaded handgun arrested near Trump California rally
  • Deputies manning a checkpoint near the rally arrested Vem Miller as he drove up in a black SUV
  • The 49-year-old suspect, of Las Vegas, was later released on bail and faces a court hearing on January 2

LOS ANGELES, California: A man found illegally in possession of a shotgun and a loaded handgun was arrested by sheriff’s deputies assigned to protect a Donald Trump rally in Coachella, California, the Riverside County sheriff’s office announced Sunday.
The Secret Service said that it was aware of the arrest and that neither Trump nor rally attendees had not been in any danger during the incident, which took place on Saturday.
“While no federal arrest has been made at this time, the investigation is ongoing,” the organization tasked with protecting presidents and presidential candidates said in a joint statement with the FBI and the US Attorney’s office.
The sheriff’s team said the man, which it identified as 49-year-old Vem Miller of Las Vegas, was later released on bail and faces a court hearing on January 2.
They added that the deputies, manning a checkpoint near the rally, arrested Miller as he drove up in a black SUV.
They later booked him at a local detention center on charges of possessing a loaded firearm and a high-capacity magazine.
The incident comes on the heels of two assassination attempts — one in Pennsylvania in which a bullet grazed Trump’s ear, and a second, aborted attempt at his Florida golf course.
Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco — a Trump supporter who also addressed the Republican’s rally in Coachella on Saturday — said that there was “absolutely no way that any of us are going to truly know what was in his head.”
“If you’re asking me right now, I probably did have deputies that prevented the third assassination attempt,” Bianco, a former member of the far-right Oath Keepers group, told a press conference.
Bianco said the man had “multiple” passports and IDs with different names in his vehicle, which was unregistered. He said any further charges would come from federal authorities.
There was no immediate comment from the Trump campaign.
Trump’s decision to hold a rally in California surprised political analysts, who note that the state is heavily Democratic, but he drew a large crowd, even in temperatures near 100 Fahrenheit (38 Celsius).
Coachella is known for its annual music festival.
 


Trump pledges 10,000 extra border agents in fight with Harris over immigration

Trump pledges 10,000 extra border agents in fight with Harris over immigration
Updated 14 October 2024
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Trump pledges 10,000 extra border agents in fight with Harris over immigration

Trump pledges 10,000 extra border agents in fight with Harris over immigration
  • Illegal immigration is a top voter concern, and Trump is seen by a majority of voters as the person best able to address it, opinion polls show

WASHINGTON: Donald Trump pledged on Sunday to hire an extra 10,000 border patrol agents if he is reelected as president, as he intensifies his attacks on Kamala Harris on the issue of immigration.
The Republican presidential candidate said he would meet the goal by asking the US Congress to fund a 10 percent pay rise for border patrol agents and a $10,000 retention and signing bonus, at a rally in the border state of Arizona, an election battleground.
Flanked on stage by leaders of the Border Patrol union, who have endorsed Trump, the former president said: “This will ensure that we can hire and keep the Border Patrol agents that we need.”
Trump is locked in a close race with Democratic Vice President Harris ahead of the Nov. 5 election. Illegal immigration is a top voter concern, and Trump is seen by a majority of voters as the person best able to address it, opinion polls show.
Trump helped kill a bipartisan border security bill earlier this year that would have funded the hiring of 1,500 extra customs and border patrol agents, and an additional 1,600 asylum officers.
There are currently roughly 20,000 US border patrol officers.
Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, and President Joe Biden have both blasted Trump for his role in pressuring congressional Republicans to kill the bipartisan border security bill, accusing him of sabotaging it for political gain.
Some 7 million migrants have been arrested crossing the US-Mexico border illegally during Biden’s administration, according to government data, a record high number that has fueled criticism of Harris and Biden from Trump and fellow Republicans.
Harris has outlined her plans to fix “our broken immigration system” while accusing Trump of “fanning the flames of fear and division” over the impact of immigrants on American life.
Harris has also called for tighter asylum restrictions and vowed to make a “top priority” of stopping the deadly opioid fentanyl from entering the United States.
On Friday Trump called for the death penalty for “any migrant” who kills a US citizen.
Trump has noticeably hardened his anti-immigration rhetoric in the final weeks of the campaign. Last month he called immigrants in the US illegally who commit violent crimes “monsters,” “stone-cold killers” and “vile animals.” Studies generally find there is no evidence immigrants commit crimes at a higher rate than native-born Americans and critics say Trump’s rhetoric reinforces racist tropes.


US to send anti-missile system and troops to Israel, Pentagon says

US to send anti-missile system and troops to Israel, Pentagon says
Updated 14 October 2024
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US to send anti-missile system and troops to Israel, Pentagon says

US to send anti-missile system and troops to Israel, Pentagon says
  • The Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system, or THAAD, is a critical part of the US military’s layered air defense systems and adds to Israel’s already formidable anti-missile defenses

WASHINGTON: The United States said on Sunday it will send US troops to Israel along with an advanced US anti-missile system, in a highly unusual deployment meant to bolster the country’s air defenses following missile attacks by Iran. US President Joe Biden said the move was meant “to defend Israel,” which is weighing an expected retaliation against Iran after Tehran fired more than 180 missiles at Israel on Oct 1.
The United States has been privately urging Israel to calibrate its response to avoid triggering a broader war in the Middle East, officials say, with Biden publicly voicing his opposition to an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear sites and his concerns about a strike on Iran’s energy infrastructure.
Pentagon spokesperson Major General Patrick Ryder described the deployment as part of “the broader adjustments the US military has made in recent months” to support Israel and defend US personnel from attacks by Iran and Iranian-backed groups.
But a US military deployment to Israel is rare outside of drills, given Israel’s own military capabilities. US troops in recent months have aided Israel’s defense from warships and fighter jets in the Middle East when it came under Iranian attack.
But they were based outside of Israel.
The Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system, or THAAD, is a critical part of the US military’s layered air defense systems and adds to Israel’s already formidable anti-missile defenses.
A THAAD battery usually requires about 100 troops to operate. It counts six truck mounted launchers, with eight interceptors on each launcher, and a powerful radar.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi warned earlier on Sunday that the United States was putting the lives of its troops “at risk by deploying them to operate US missile systems in Israel.”
“While we have made tremendous efforts in recent days to contain an all-out war in our region, I say it clearly that we have no red lines in defending our people and interests,” Araqchi posted on X. Still, experts say Iran has sought to avoid a direct war with the United States, making deployment of US forces to Israel another factor in its calculus going forward.
Iran launched missiles and drones at Israel in April. Then on Oct. 1, Iran fired more than 180 ballistic missiles at Israel amid another escalation in fighting between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. Many were intercepted in flight but some penetrated missile defenses. US officials did not say how quickly the system would be deployed to Israel.
The Pentagon said a THAAD was deployed to southern Israel for drills in 2019, the last and only time it was known to be there.
Lockheed Martin, the biggest US arms maker, builds and integrates the THAAD system, which is designed to shoot down short-, medium- and intermediate-range ballistic missiles. Raytheon, under RTX, builds its advanced radar.