A war with Hezbollah may be looming. Is Israel prepared?

A war with Hezbollah may be looming. Is Israel prepared?
Israeli firefighters work to extinguish a fire after a rocket fired from Lebanon hit an open field in northern Israel, Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024. (AP)
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Updated 19 September 2024
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A war with Hezbollah may be looming. Is Israel prepared?

A war with Hezbollah may be looming. Is Israel prepared?
  • Israeli media reported Wednesday that the government has not yet decided whether to launch a major offensive in Lebanon

JERUSALEM: With Israel’s defense minister announcing a “new phase” of the war and an apparent Israeli attack setting off explosions in electronic devices in Lebanon, the specter of all-out combat between Israel and Hezbollah seems closer than ever before.
Hopes for a diplomatic solution to the conflict appear to be fading quickly as Israel signals a desire to change the status quo in the country’s north, where it has exchanged cross-border fire with Hezbollah since the Lebanese militant group began attacking on Oct. 8, a day after the war’s opening salvo by Hamas.
In recent days, Israel has moved a powerful fighting force up to the northern border, officials have escalated their rhetoric, and the country’s security Cabinet has designated the return of tens of thousands of displaced residents to their homes in northern Israel an official war goal.
Here’s a look at how Israel is preparing for a war with Lebanon:
Troops drawn from Gaza to the northern border
While the daily fighting between Israel and Hezbollah has escalated on several occasions, the bitter enemies have been careful to avoid an all-out war.
That appears to be changing — especially after pagers, walkie-talkies, solar equipment and other devices exploded in Lebanon on Tuesday and Wednesday, killing at least 20 and wounding thousands in a sophisticated attack Hezbollah blamed on Israel.
“You don’t do something like that, hit thousands of people, and think war is not coming,” said retired Israeli Brig. Gen. Amir Avivi, who leads Israel Defense and Security Forum, a group of hawkish former military commanders. “Why didn’t we do it for 11 months? Because we were not willing to go to war yet. What’s happening now? Israel is ready for war.”
As fighting in Gaza has slowed, Israel has fortified forces along the border with Lebanon, including the arrival this week of a powerful army division that took part in some of the heaviest fighting in Gaza.
The 98th Division is believed to include thousands of troops, including paratrooper infantry units and artillery and elite commando forces specially trained for operations behind enemy lines. Their deployment was confirmed by an official with knowledge of the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss troop movements.
The division played a key role in Gaza, spearheading the army’s operations in the southern city of Khan Younis, a Hamas stronghold. The offensive inflicted heavy losses on Hamas fighters and tunnels, but also wreaked massive damage, sent thousands of Palestinians fleeing and resulted in scores of civilian deaths. Israel says Hamas endangers civilians by hiding in residential areas.
The military also said it staged a series of drills this week along the border.
“The mission is clear,” said Maj. Gen. Ori Gordin, who heads Israel’s Northern Command. “We are determined to change the security reality as soon as possible.”
A ‘new phase’ of war
The military movements have been accompanied by heightened rhetoric from Israel’s leaders, who say their patience is running thin.
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Wednesday night declared the start of a ” new phase” of the war as Israel turns its focus toward Hezbollah. “The center of gravity is shifting to the north by diverting resources and forces,” he said.
He spoke a day after Israel’s Cabinet made the return of displaced residents to their homes in northern Israel a formal goal of the war. The move was largely symbolic — Israeli leaders have long pledged to bring those residents home. But elevating the significance of the aim signaled a tougher stance.
After meeting Wednesday with top security officials, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared: “We will return the residents of the north securely to their homes.”
Netanyahu delivered a similarly tough message with a top US envoy sent to the region this week to soothe tensions.
An official with knowledge of the encounter told The Associated Press that the envoy, Amos Hochstein, told Netanyahu that intensifying the conflict with Hezbollah would not help return evacuated Israelis back home.
Netanyahu, according to a statement from his office, told Hochstein that residents cannot return without “a fundamental change in the security situation in the north.” The statement said that while Netanyahu “appreciates and respects” US support, Israel will “do what is necessary to safeguard its security.”
Is war inevitable?
Israeli media reported Wednesday that the government has not yet decided whether to launch a major offensive in Lebanon.
Much, it seems, will depend on Hezbollah’s response. The group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, is expected to deliver a major speech on Thursday.
But public sentiment in Israel seems to be supportive of tougher action against Hezbollah.
A recent poll by the Israeli Democracy Institute, a Jerusalem think tank, found that 67 percent of Jewish respondents thought Israel should intensify its response to Hezbollah. The majority believed Israel should launch a deep offensive that includes striking Lebanese infrastructure.
“There’s a lot of pressure from the society to go to war and win,” said Avivi, the retired general. “Unless Hezbollah tomorrow morning says, ‘OK, we got the message. We’re pulling out of south Lebanon,’ war is imminent.”
Such a war would almost certainly prove devastating to both sides.
Already, more than 500 people have been killed in Lebanon by Israeli strikes since Oct. 8, most of them fighters with Hezbollah and other armed groups but also more than 100 civilians. In northern Israel, at least 23 soldiers and 26 civilians have been killed by strikes from Lebanon.
Israel inflicted heavy damage on Lebanon during a monthlong war against Hezbollah in 2006 that ended in a stalemate. Israeli leaders have threatened even tougher action this time around, vowing to repeat the scenes of destruction from Gaza in Lebanon.
But Hezbollah also has built up its capabilities since 2006. Hezbollah has an estimated 150,000 rockets and missiles, some believed to have guidance systems that could threaten sensitive targets in Israel. It has also developed an increasingly sophisticated fleet of drones.
Capable of striking all parts of Israel, Hezbollah could bring life in Israel to a standstill and send hundreds of thousands of Israelis fleeing.


Netanyahu says Israel army destroyed ‘large part’ of Hezbollah arsenal

Netanyahu says Israel army destroyed ‘large part’ of Hezbollah arsenal
Updated 21 sec ago
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Netanyahu says Israel army destroyed ‘large part’ of Hezbollah arsenal

Netanyahu says Israel army destroyed ‘large part’ of Hezbollah arsenal
“We destroyed a large part of the array of missiles and rockets that Hezbollah built over the years,” said Netanyahu

JERUSALEM: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Saturday said the Israeli military had succeeded in destroying much of Hezbollah’s arsenal and altered the course of the war against the Iran-backed group.
“We destroyed a large part of the array of missiles and rockets that Hezbollah built over the years,” said Netanyahu in a televised address, adding: “We have changed the course of the war and the balance of the war.”
He also said ‘shame’ on Macron for urging halt to arms supply to Israel.

France to host Lebanon aid conference, Macron says

France to host Lebanon aid conference, Macron says
Updated 11 min 31 sec ago
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France to host Lebanon aid conference, Macron says

France to host Lebanon aid conference, Macron says
  • “We will hold in the next few weeks a conference to provide humanitarian aid,” Macron said

PARIS: France will host an international conference this month to help drum up humanitarian aid for Lebanon and strengthen security in the southern part of the country, French President Emmanuel Macron said on Saturday.
“We will hold in the next few weeks a conference to provide humanitarian aid, support the international community and support the Lebanese armed forces boost security, especially in southern Lebanon,” Macron said after a meeting of French speaking countries in Paris.
Israel has begun an intense bombing campaign in Lebanon and sent troops across the border in recent weeks after nearly a year of exchanging fire with Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah.
Fighting had previously been mostly limited to the Israel-Lebanon border area, taking place in parallel to Israel’s year-old war in Gaza against Palestinian group Hamas.


Lebanon crisis sparks risk of new wave of Syrian refugees into Turkiye

Lebanon crisis sparks risk of new wave of Syrian refugees into Turkiye
Updated 30 min 46 sec ago
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Lebanon crisis sparks risk of new wave of Syrian refugees into Turkiye

Lebanon crisis sparks risk of new wave of Syrian refugees into Turkiye
  • There is ‘great uncertainty’ about Turkiye’s options regarding migration management from Lebanon, analyst says 

ANKARA: A surge in the number of Syrian refugees fleeing violence in Lebanon and attempting to reach Turkish-controlled areas in northern Syria is raising concerns over how Turkiye will manage a new influx of refugees. 

Lebanon, which hosts more than 1.5 million Syrian and Palestinian refugees, is witnessing an exodus as security conditions worsen as a result of Israel’s bombing campaign.

Turkiye, which currently shelters around 3.1 million registered Syrian refugees, now faces pressure to accommodate more.

Ankara is also helping to evacuate foreign nationals from Lebanon via Turkiye, following requests from around 20 countries.

On Thursday, Deniz Yucel, spokesperson for the main opposition Republican Peoples’ Party (CHP), submitted a parliamentary question concerning the potential impact of the Israel-Lebanon war on Turkiye.

“There is growing concern that the ongoing conflict in our southeastern border could trigger a massive wave of migration,” he said in his address to Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya. “(This) would not only increase our population but also lead to a rise in unemployment, rent, and property prices while disrupting social order and demographic balance in a country already turned into the world’s refugee camp. The minister of interior must urgently inform the public about the possibility of a new migration wave.”  

Turkiye, Yucel continued, “is not anyone’s refugee camp. We will never allow the Turkish people to become alienated in their homeland. We will close the borders and save the country.”

Metin Corabatir, president of the Research Center on Asylum and Migration in Ankara, said that there is great uncertainty about the options ahead for Turkiye in terms of migration management from Lebanon.  

“A significant number of Lebanese and Syrian refugees are evacuating the country or are crossing into Syria,” he told Arab News. “If Lebanon becomes a battleground, there may be pressure on Turkiye.”

The Turkish government “is pursuing a policy to fight against irregular migration. If there is a new wave of migration, I don’t think Turkiye will opt for an open-border policy, because it will greatly affect domestic politics,” he added.

Some 77 percent of Turks favor closing borders to refugees — significantly more than the global average of 44 percent — according to the results of a recent survey by IPSOS and the UN refugee agency, UNHCR. 

According to Corabatir, if there is a large wave of migration, the Turkish government will be expected to cooperate with the international community to develop formulas based on international humanitarian law rather than accepting offers to once again transform Turkiye into a buffer against migration waves. 

“The absorption capacity of northern Syria has reached its full capacity for hosting more refugee flow. In that case, these people can transit through Syrian soil in a controlled manner and pass to other countries via Turkiye,” he said.

Turkiye, which has a 911 km-long border with Syria, became the country hosting the most refugees in the world in 2011 when the Syrian conflict began.

However, experts do not anticipate a similar influx through the border at present because, since then, Turkiye has imposed tight controls by building a security wall.

“Considering many European countries have already closed their doors to the migration flow, Turkiye will not be expected to operate an open-door policy like it did in the past. But it will cooperate in the conditional and controlled evacuation of refugees in case a large-scale humanitarian crisis erupts,” Corabatir said. 

According to Dr. Oytun Orhan, coordinator of Levant studies at ORSAM, an Ankara-based think tank, as tensions escalate in Lebanon and Syria a new wave of migration is likely to be triggered from the latter, where airstrikes targeting Hezbollah and Iran-backed militias are increasing.  

“This could further destabilize Syria, potentially prompting a fresh migration wave from the south to the north of the country. Turkiye’s primary advantage is managing the influx in designated safe zones,” he told Arab News. 

However, these areas are already overfilled. In Idlib alone, 3.5 million people reside, while other regions house another 1.5 million, most of whom have been internally displaced within Syria.

Dr. Orhan believes Syria’s rising instability, chaotic conditions, and the risk of a new migration wave may force Turkiye to strengthen its border defenses.  

“Expanding the safe zones is one potential outcome, but that remains a last resort,” he said. 

“A military operation to close off the remaining unsecured areas of the safe zone is the worst-case scenario, particularly if the conflict in Gaza or Lebanon spills into Syria. Should this happen, Turkiye is expected to take preventive measures to address any potential border-security risks.

It remains to be seen how this new flow of refugees will affect the slow but ongoing normalization process between Ankara and Damascus.”

In July, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he might invite Syrian leader Bashar Assad to Turkiye “at any moment” to restore relations to the level of the past.

That statement came after Assad said Damascus was open to “all initiatives” to restore Turkish-Syrian ties “as long as they are based on respecting the sovereignty of the Syrian state over all its territory and fighting all forms of terrorism.” 

For Dr. Orhan, there are two options ahead. “Initially, the spread of conflict into Syria might accelerate negotiations, as Damascus faces increased pressure and Iran’s influence in the region weakens,” he said, adding that Russia would likely back such peace efforts in case of further clashes and a migration surge.

“However, if Ankara is obliged to conduct any cross-border military action to secure its borders, it could disrupt normalization talks until tensions subside,” he added.


Ireland calls Israeli demand to move UN troops ‘outrageous’

Ireland calls Israeli demand to move UN troops ‘outrageous’
Updated 05 October 2024
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Ireland calls Israeli demand to move UN troops ‘outrageous’

Ireland calls Israeli demand to move UN troops ‘outrageous’
  • “It is outrageous that the Israeli Defense Forces have threatened this peacekeeping force,” President Michael Higgins said
  • “Indeed, Israel is demanding that the entire UNIFIL operating under UN mandates walk away“

DUBLIN: The president of Ireland on Saturday sharply criticized Israel’s demand that UN peacekeepers leave their positions in southern Lebanon.
“It is outrageous that the Israeli Defense Forces have threatened this peacekeeping force and sought to have them evacuate the villages they are defending,” President Michael Higgins said in a statement.
“Indeed, Israel is demanding that the entire UNIFIL (United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon) operating under UN mandates walk away.”
Ireland accounts for 347 of the 10,000 soldiers serving in the UNIFIL forces, which are charged with maintaining peace in the south of Lebanon.
Earlier Saturday, UNIFIL said it had rejected Israeli demands that it “relocate” some positions ahead of Israeli ground operations against Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.
Higgins called the demand “an insult to the most important global institution.”
Fighting between Hezbollah and Israel has intensified since the start of ground incursions by Israeli troops in southern Lebanon earlier this week.
Some 1,110 people have died in Lebanon and hundreds of thousands have fled their homes because of the fighting.


Hezbollah says targets north Israel ‘military industries’ firm

Hezbollah says targets north Israel ‘military industries’ firm
Updated 05 October 2024
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Hezbollah says targets north Israel ‘military industries’ firm

Hezbollah says targets north Israel ‘military industries’ firm
  • The group said it launched “a rocket salvo” toward a “military industries company” east of Acre

BEIRUT: Hezbollah said it launched rockets at a defense company in northern Israel Saturday, the latest attacks after Israel intensified its bombing campaign last week, nearly a year into cross-border clashes with the group.
The Iran-backed group said in a statement that it launched “a rocket salvo” toward a “military industries company” east of Acre.