What Israel’s purported invasion of Lebanon means for Hezbollah and its Iranian backers

Analysis What Israel’s purported invasion of Lebanon means for Hezbollah and its Iranian backers
Israel said it had launched a “limited” ground incursion into Lebanon on Monday. (AP)
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What Israel’s purported invasion of Lebanon means for Hezbollah and its Iranian backers

What Israel’s purported invasion of Lebanon means for Hezbollah and its Iranian backers
  • Israel says it has mounted ‘limited, localized, and targeted ground raids’ in southern Lebanon aimed at dismantling Hezbollah’s military infrastructure
  • Iran launched a missile attack against Israel on Tuesday night in retaliation for the killing of Hezbollah’s Nasrallah and Hamas chief Haniyeh

DUBAI/LONDON: Following the killing of Hezbollah’s longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in a targeted airstrike on Sept. 27, Israel is reported to have launched what it calls a “limited” ground incursion into Lebanon.

On Tuesday night, Iran fired a wave of ballistic missiles at Israel in a long-expected retaliation for the killing of Nasrallah and the suspected Israeli killing of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31.

Both developments have brought the region yet another step closer to the possibility of all-out war.




Rescuers dig through the rubble of a building, a day after it was hit in an Israeli strike, in Ain El-Delb. (AP)

Lebanon has witnessed its bloodiest month since the end of its civil war in 1990. According to the Ministry of Health, more than 1,000 people have been killed, 90,000 displaced, and up to a million people have fled their homes.

Emboldened by its early successes, Israeli military officials appear determined to press home the advantage.

In a statement, officials described their actions as “limited, localized, and targeted ground raids” in southern Lebanon aimed at dismantling Hezbollah’s military infrastructure, which they consider a threat to northern Israel.

The military said it was acting on “precise intelligence” targeting Hezbollah positions and infrastructure in southern Lebanon. “These targets are located in villages close to the border and pose an immediate threat to Israeli communities in northern Israel,” it said.

On Tuesday, the Israeli military called on residents in more than 20 areas of southern Lebanon to evacuate.




Mourners carry the bodies of victims killed in an Israeli air strike on the town of Ain Al-Delb. (AFP)

“The IDF (Israel Defense Forces) does not want to harm you, and for your own safety you must evacuate your homes immediately. Anyone who is near Hezbollah members, installations and combat equipment is putting his life in danger,” army spokesman Avichay Adraee said on X.

“You must head immediately to the north of the Al-Awali River,” near the coastal city of Sidon, Adraee added.

However, Hezbollah said that no Israeli troops had crossed over into Lebanon. “All the Zionist claims that (Israeli) occupation forces have entered Lebanon are false claims,” a Hezbollah spokesman said in a statement on Tuesday.

They added there had “not yet been any direct ground clash between (Hezbollah) resistance fighters and (Israeli) occupation forces.”

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The UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon also said on Tuesday that there was “no ground incursion” going on in the south of the country. UNIFIL spokesman Andrea Tenenti told AFP news agency there was “no ground incursion right now.”

Israeli officials want Hezbollah to withdraw its forces north of the Litani River, about 18 km from the Israeli border, which would allow displaced Israeli civilians to return to their homes near the border.

Firas Maksad, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, believes there is likely more to Israel’s war aims. “The stated objective is to return some 60,000 Israelis to their homes in the north. However, what we’re witnessing is something much broader than that,” he told CNN.

“It is an attempt, perhaps, to redraw the balance of power not only in Lebanon but more broadly in the Levant and even perhaps in the region as it relates to Iran. And we’ve heard time and again that this might now very much include a ground component.”

Just what a “limited” invasion might entail, however, also remains unclear.

“In the Lebanese psyche in particular, but others in the region, too, that past Israeli land incursions and invasions into Lebanon were also dubbed as being limited, so there’s a lot of question marks and certainly a lack of trust as to how far this operation will go,” Maksad said.

The international community has repeatedly warned against further escalation, fearing it could plunge the entire region into chaos.

INNUMBERS

• 1,000+ Lebanese killed in Israel-Hezbollah clashes in the past two weeks.

• 1m Lebanese displaced by Israel-Hezbollah fighting so far.

During a recent visit to Lebanon, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot urged both sides to agree to a ceasefire and resolve the conflict diplomatically, calling on Israel to “refrain from any action that could destabilize the region.”

Meanwhile, Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati described the situation as “one of the most dangerous phases” in Lebanon’s history, stressing the need to implement UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war.

As the conflict intensifies, the US has bolstered its military presence in the region, sending “a few thousand” additional troops to ensure security and protect Israel if necessary, according to the Pentagon.

In Lebanon, reactions to the latest escalation are divided. Hezbollah supporters have welcomed the confrontation, while many others oppose being dragged into a war not of their making. For Karine, a 37-year-old mathematics teacher, the country is being held hostage by Hezbollah.

“I sympathize with the Palestinian cause. I even sympathize with Nasrallah’s supporters. But reason says you cannot drag the whole country into war due to the decisions of a few,” she told Arab News.

“Israel, while I consider it an abomination before God, has demonstrated incredible military might. We have been dealing with crisis after crisis since 2019, and we are not up for this fight. We are too exhausted.

“Even if Hezbollah wants to fight, thousands of their soldiers have been left blinded and without limbs. How are they to fire a gun without eyesight and fingers? Spare us.”

Nasrallah had previously declared that an Israeli invasion would provide a “historic opportunity” for Hezbollah to eliminate its enemies — a sentiment reiterated by his deputy, Naim Qassem.

In a televised speech, the first since Nasrallah’s death, Qassem vowed revenge, stating that “the resistance is ready” to confront Israeli forces.




Smoke rises over Beirut’s southern suburbs after a strike. (Reuters)

Despite the loss of its leader, Qassem insisted that Hezbollah’s arsenal remains intact and that the group has the resources it needs for the fight. He called for patience, assuring supporters that while the battle will be long, Hezbollah will ultimately emerge victorious.

However, Hezbollah’s closest allies, Iran and Syria, have been notably hesitant to intervene.

While Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei mourned Nasrallah, calling him his “dear Sayyed” and urged Muslims to stand by Lebanon against the “foul-natured Zionist regime,” the Iranian government has made it clear that it will not send troops to Lebanon.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that “there is no need to send extra or volunteer forces” from Iran to Lebanon or Gaza, as “the fighters in both countries have the capability and strength to defend themselves against the aggression.”

Similarly, Syria’s President Bashar Assad has yet to provide any concrete aid beyond condemning Israel’s actions.

Mohanad Hage Ali, deputy director for research at the Carnegie Middle East Center, suggests that Hezbollah has realized it is largely on its own in this conflict.

“Israel’s actions were a message of deterrence to Iran,” Hage Ali told Arab News. “I don’t think Iran wants to join the conflict, given how it now understands Israel’s military capabilities.

“There has been an unexpected level of infiltration within the ranks of Hezbollah and it seems too deep for the organization to deal with. No one has been able to figure out yet where the leaks are coming from.”

He added: “Hezbollah exists as a frontline asset but now serves as a cautionary tale for Iran.”

Iran’s apparent reluctance to intervene on behalf of its Hezbollah ally could be costly in terms of its credibility.




On Tuesday night, Iran fired a wave of ballistic missiles at Israel. (AP)

“The lack of response from Iran is contributing to a lot of grievances among its Arab allies, particularly in Lebanon, even within the Hezbollah support base in the Shiite community, essentially asking and wondering whether they’ve been left out to dry, by themselves, without Iran coming to their aid,” Maksad said.

“I don’t think Iran will be coming to their aid. They understand that in any direct confrontation with Israel they are at a disadvantage. And so what we’ve been hearing, time and again, from Iranian officials is this commitment to support Hezbollah, to support the Lebanese and their various proxies, in their fight against Israel, but not to be dragged into it themselves. They see that as a trap that they very much want to avoid.”

On Tuesday evening, however, Iran mounted a response, firing a wave of ballistic missiles at Israel.

In April, Iran mounted its first direct attack on Israeli soil with a massive barrage of missiles and drones in retaliation for the Israeli bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damascus.

Although Israeli air defenses were able to destroy some 99 percent of the drones and missiles before they reached its airspace, the incident sent a strong message that Iran would respond if pushed.

This latest Iranian attack will again have sent a strong message of deterrence, but is unlikely to change Hezbollah’s fortunes on the ground in Lebanon.

Indeed, with its leadership decapitated, its communication networks compromised, and with potential leaks within its ranks in Lebanon and Syria, Hezbollah already appears to be on the ropes.

Much depends on how Iran chooses to respond in the long run.




Hezbollah supporters have welcomed the confrontation, while many others oppose being dragged into a war not of their making. (AFP)

“This is essentially the opening round of a 12-round match between Hezbollah, backed by Iran, on the one hand, and Israel,” Maksad said.

“And if we know anything from history (it) is that Israel is pretty effective at landing these strong opening blows, but Iran tends to play the long game.”

 


What are Iran’s missile capabilities?

What are Iran’s missile capabilities?
Updated 02 October 2024
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What are Iran’s missile capabilities?

What are Iran’s missile capabilities?
  • “Years of reverse-engineering missiles and producing various missile classes have also taught Iran about stretching airframes and building them with lighter composite materials to increase missile range,” the report said

TEHRAN: Iran fired a salvo of ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday in retaliation for Israel’s campaign against Tehran’s Hezbollah allies in Lebanon, drawing on an array of weapons that has long worried the West. The attack came five months after a strike in April that was the first ever direct Iranian strike on Israel. Ballistic missiles are an important part of the arsenal at Tehran’s disposal. According to the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Iran is armed with the largest number of ballistic missiles in the region.

Here are some details: * The semi-official Iranian news outlet ISNA published a graphic in April showing nine Iranian missiles it said could reach Israel. These included the ‘Sejil’, capable of flying at more than 17,000 km (10,500 miles) per hour and with a range of 2,500 km (1,550 miles), the ‘Kheibar’ with a range of 2,000 km (1,240 miles), and the ‘Hajj Qasem’, which has a range of 1,400 km (870 miles), ISNA said. * The Arms Control Association, a Washington-based non-governmental organization, says Iran’s ballistic missiles include ‘Shahab-1’, with an estimated range of 300 km (190 miles); the ‘Zolfaghar’, with 700 km (435 miles); ‘Shahab-3’, with 800-1,000 km (500 to 620 miles); ‘Emad-1’, a missile under development with a range up to 2,000 km (1,240 miles) and ‘Sejil’, under development, with 1,500-2,500 km (930 to 1,550 miles).
* Fabian Hinz, a Berlin-based expert on Iran’s missile arsenal with the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said that based on the locations of videos of launches posted on social media and the ranges to Israel, he assessed that Iran fired a combination of solid- and liquid-fueled missiles.
The former category of missile, which is more advanced, is fired from angled mobile launchers and the latter from vertical launchers, he said.
He said three solid-propellent missiles fired on Tuesday could be the ‘Hajj Qasem’, ‘Kheibar Shekan’ and ‘Fattah 1’. Liquid propellant missiles reported as being launched from Isfahan might potentially be the ‘Emad’, ‘Badr’ and ‘Khorramshahr’, he said.
* Iran says its ballistic missiles are an important deterrent and retaliatory force against the US, Israel and other potential regional targets. It denies seeking nuclear weapons.
* According to a 2023 report by Behnam Ben Taleblu, a Senior Fellow at the US-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Iran continues to develop underground missile depots complete with transport and firing systems, and subterranean missile production and storage centers. In June 2020, Iran fired its first ever ballistic missile from underground, it said.

“Years of reverse-engineering missiles and producing various missile classes have also taught Iran about stretching airframes and building them with lighter composite materials to increase missile range,” the report said. * In June 2023, Iran presented what officials described as its first domestically made hypersonic ballistic missile, the official IRNA news agency reported. Hypersonic missiles can fly at least five times faster than the speed of sound and on a complex trajectory, which makes them difficult to intercept.
* The Arms Control Association says Iran’s missile program is largely based on North Korean and Russian designs and has benefited from Chinese assistance.
* Iran also has cruise missiles such as Kh-55, an air-launched nuclear-capable weapon with a range up to 3,000 km (1,860 miles), and the advanced anti-ship missile the Khalid Farzh, with about 300 km (186 miles), capable of carrying a 1,000-kg (1.1-ton) warhead.

REGIONAL ATTACKS
• Iran’s Revolutionary Guards used missiles in January 2024 when they said they attacked the spy headquarters of Israel in Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region, and said they fired at Daesh militants in Syria. Iran also announced firing missiles at two bases of a Baluchi militant group in neighboring Pakistan.
• Saudi Arabia and the US have said they believe Iran was behind a drone and missile attack on Saudi Arabia’s prized oil facilities in 2019. Tehran denied the allegation.
• In 2020, Iran launched missile attacks on US-led forces in Iraq, including the Al-Asad air base, in retaliation for a US drone strike on an Iranian commander.

BACKING FOR YEMEN’S HOUTHIS
• The United States accuses Iran of arming the Houthis of Yemen, who have been firing on Red Sea shipping and Israel itself during the Gaza war, in a campaign they say is aimed at supporting the Palestinians. Tehran denies arming the Houthis. * On Sept. 24, Reuters reported Iran had brokered secret talks between Russia and the Houthis to transfer anti-ship missiles to the armed group, citing Western and regional sources.
• In 2022, the Houthis said they fired ballistic missiles and drones at the United Arab Emirates. This included a missile attack targeting a base hosting the US military in the UAE, which was thwarted by US-built Patriot interceptor missiles.

SUPPORT FOR HEZBOLLAH * Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah group has said it has the ability within Lebanon to convert thousands of rockets into precision missiles and to produce drones. Last year, the late Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said the group was able to transform standard rockets into precision missiles with the cooperation of Iranian experts.

SYRIA
• Iran has transferred indigenous precision-guided missiles to Syria to support President Bashar Assad’s fight against rebels, according to Israeli and Western intelligence officials.
• It has moved some production capacity to underground compounds in Syria, where Assad’s military and other pro-Tehran forces have learned to build their own missiles, those sources say.

 


Airlines scramble to divert flights after Iran missile attack

Airlines scramble to divert flights after Iran missile attack
Updated 02 October 2024
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Airlines scramble to divert flights after Iran missile attack

Airlines scramble to divert flights after Iran missile attack
  • Eurocontrol, a pan-European air traffic control agency, earlier sent a warning to pilots about the escalating conflict

PARIS: Israel’s neighbors closed airspace and airline crews skirted an escalating conflict, with many seeking diversions, after Iran fired a salvo of ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday.
A spokesperson for tracking service FlightRadar24 said flights diverted “anywhere they could,” and a snapshot of traffic in the region showed flights spreading in wide arcs to the north and south, with many converging on Cairo and Istanbul.
FlightRadar24 said Istanbul and Antalya in southern Turkiye were becoming congested, forcing some airlines to divert south.
Iran launched the strikes in retaliation for Israel’s campaign against Tehran’s Hezbollah allies in Lebanon, and Israel vowed a “painful response” against its enemy.
Eurocontrol, a pan-European air traffic control agency, earlier sent a warning to pilots about the escalating conflict.
“A major missile attack has been launched against Israel in the last few minutes. At present the entire country is under a missile warning,” it said in an urgent navigation bulletin.
Shortly afterwards it announced the closure of Jordanian and Iraqi airspace as well as the closure of a key crossing point into airspace controlled by Cyprus.
An Iraqi pilot bulletin said its Baghdad-controlled airspace was “closed due to security until further notice.”
Iraq’s transport ministry later announced the reopening of Iraqi airspace to incoming and outgoing civilian flights at Iraqi airports. FlightRadar24 said on X that “it will be a while before flights are active there again.”
Jordan also reopened its airspace after closing it following the volley of Iranian missiles fired toward Israel, the Jordanian state news agency reported.
Lebanon’s airspace will be closed to air traffic for a two-hour period on Tuesday, Transport Minister Ali Hamie said on X.
The latest disruptions are expected to deal a further blow to an industry already facing a host of restrictions due to conflicts between Israel and Hamas, and Russia and Ukraine.

 


Six dead in separatist attacks in southeast Iran

Six dead in separatist attacks in southeast Iran
Updated 02 October 2024
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Six dead in separatist attacks in southeast Iran

Six dead in separatist attacks in southeast Iran
  • Local head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps among victims of militant group

RIYADH: Six people including a local head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps were killed on Tuesday in gun attacks by militant separatists in Iran’s restive southeastern province of Sistan and Baluchistan.

Town council chief Parviz Kadkhodaei and two volunteer members of the Guards were also among the dead in the first attack at a school ceremony in the small town of Bent, about 1,350 kilometers southeast of Tehran. Two police officers were killed in the second attack in the town of Khash.

Both attacks were carried out by gunmen from Jaish Al-Adl, a militant group based in Pakistan that seeks greater rights for the ethnic Baloch minority.

Sistan-Baluchistan, one of Iran’s poorest regions, is mostly inhabited by the Baloch community. The province bordering Pakistan and Afghanistan has long been plagued by unrest involving drug-smuggling gangs, rebels from the Baluchi minority and militants.

In September, gunmen from Jaish Al-Adl killed four border guards in the province in two separate attacks.

In January Iran carried out a missile and drone strike against militant groups in Pakistan. Pakistan retaliated with strikes against militants in Iranian territory.

Pakistan’s Balochistan province also suffers from low-level insurgency waged by separatist militants against the government of Pakistan. These Pakistani Baloch separatist militant groups are allied with Iranian Baloch groups. Iran and Pakistan historically have a strategic alliance fighting these groups. 


Prayers and applause: two sides of Jerusalem react to Iran missiles

Prayers and applause: two sides of Jerusalem react to Iran missiles
Updated 02 October 2024
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Prayers and applause: two sides of Jerusalem react to Iran missiles

Prayers and applause: two sides of Jerusalem react to Iran missiles

JERUSALEM: Depending on where you were in Jerusalem on Tuesday night, Iran’s missile attack on Israel provoked either fervent prayers or cries of joy.
Jewish prayers in an underground car park in west Jerusalem; expressions of joy in Palestinian districts in the Israeli-annexed east of the city.
When the air raid sirens wailed, hundreds of people in the central bus station in the west heeded the military’s calls and headed underground to take shelter.
Some of those who gathered in the car park read from religious texts as others stayed glued to their phones.
The dull sound of explosions came from above as Israeli air defenses intercepted incoming missiles fired from Iran.
Outside in the open, the dark sky was streaked with light trails from the east, amid the boom of blasts echoing over the Holy City.
In a shelter in Musrara district in west Jerusalem, residents called friends and relatives elsewhere in Israel to exchange news of what was happening.
One man who preferred not to be identified by name told AFP: “We can put things into perspective, but the kids can’t.”
He gave out sweets to young ones in the car park, “so they don’t have bad memories” of the situation.
Children were crying, however, and families continued to arrive amid the wave of alerts.
Some even expressed surprise as they had not heard of the threat, despite repeated warnings broadcast by the authorities for more than an hour.
On the other side of Jerusalem is the Palestinian quarter of Silwan in the east of the city, which Israel seized in the 1967 war and later annexed.
One resident told AFP of the reaction in Silwan when the warnings sounded.
“As soon as the Palestinians heard the first sirens, there were whistles and applause, and there were cries of ‘Allahu Akbar!’ (God is Greatest),” said one resident of the moment the streaks of fire appeared in the night sky.
She said people did not go to shelters because they don’t have any. Instead they went out into the streets or onto roofs to see what was happening.
Back in west Jerusalem, after the all clear, 17-year-old Alon returned to his small DIY shop.
“It’s been six months since I’ve heard the alert in Jerusalem,” he said of the first time Israel’s arch-enemy Iran attacked with drones and missiles on the night of April 13-14.
“I wasn’t afraid,” he added.


Iran warns against any direct military intervention in support of Israel

Iran warns against any direct military intervention in support of Israel
Updated 02 October 2024
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Iran warns against any direct military intervention in support of Israel

Iran warns against any direct military intervention in support of Israel

TEHRAN: Iran’s armed forces warned Wednesday against any direct military intervention in support of Israel in response to Iran’s missile attack.

“In the event of direct intervention by countries supporting the regime (Israel)... their centers and interests in the region will also face a powerful attack by the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” the armed forces said in a statement quoted by Fars news agency.