How Iran war may impact Turkiye-South Caucasus ties

After more than three decades of tensions, a relative calm has been achieved in the South Caucasus — a region long dominated by intense rivalry between Azerbaijan and Armenia and among global powers, namely Russia and the West. Last August, Baku and Yerevan agreed to put aside their war and take steps toward diplomacy, focusing on economic cooperation. But this fragile stability today faces a new risk as the escalating US-Israeli war with Iran brings new tensions to their doorstep.

The South Caucasus states were already navigating a difficult security environment due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. Now, the Iran war appears to be spreading beyond the Gulf region, raising serious concerns for them.

On March 5, drones struck near an airport and exploded close to a school in Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan exclave, which borders Iran. Azerbaijani authorities claimed the drones originated from Iran, while Tehran denied any involvement. In response, Baku announced it was withdrawing its diplomatic personnel from Iran and ordered its armed forces to full combat readiness, placing them at the highest level of mobilization.

The incident raised fears that it could spill over and turn into a broader regional confrontation.

Iran immediately moved to damage control mode. President Masoud Pezeshkian called his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev, and emphasized that Iran was not involved in the Nakhchivan incident and that it was investigating the matter. Following this conversation, Aliyev announced plans to provide humanitarian assistance to Iran.

Like Azerbaijan, Armenia will be forced to navigate mounting pressure while trying to preserve a delicate diplomatic balance. 

Dr. Sinem Cengiz

Azerbaijani authorities lifted the restrictions on cargo crossings that had been imposed on the day of the drone attack and trucks loaded with food, medicine, water and other essential supplies were dispatched from Baku. Turkish diplomacy also likely contributed to the easing of tensions, as Ankara is well aware that Iran is unlikely to open a new front in the South Caucasus.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned that the war risks spreading to other regions, including the South Caucasus, and said Turkiye would take all necessary steps to deter the conflict from drawing in additional states.

Armenia also shares a border with Iran and maintains significant economic and energy ties with Tehran. A prolonged war would place Yerevan in a difficult position, as it faces similar risks from debris or misfires along its southern frontier. Like Azerbaijan, Armenia will be forced to navigate mounting pressure while trying to preserve a delicate diplomatic balance.

Following the Nakhchivan incident, the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry posted on social media to thank several states for their support. In the post, Armenia’s flag was displayed among those of other states.

On the day of the incident, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan held a phone conversation with his Azerbaijani counterpart. Both ministries released statements on the discussion. The Armenian statement highlighted the ministers’ mutual concern and emphasized the importance of avoiding actions that could further escalate tensions. It added that the two ministers stressed the need to maintain regional stability and security and underscored the goal of achieving lasting peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The Azerbaijani statement noted that the Nakhchivan incident had also been discussed, though this detail was absent from the Armenian statement.

The following day, Mirzoyan spoke to his Turkish counterpart. This call was significant because, when Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a peace framework last August, Turkiye was the most supportive state, seeing the deal as a potential boost to its own efforts to normalize relations with Yerevan. As a close ally of Azerbaijan, Turkiye has been pursuing a normalization process with Armenia, which is gradually progressing in a positive direction. For example, Turkish Airlines on Thursday launched its first direct flight service between Istanbul and Yerevan, although the two states still lack formal diplomatic relations.

It is possible that we may see closer coordination among Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkiye in response to the ongoing war. 

Dr. Sinem Cengiz

Given these achievements in Armenia’s relations with both Turkiye and Azerbaijan, Ankara will try to avoid these dual peace processes being disrupted by the ongoing war. Ankara does not want to see Baku, Yerevan or itself drawn into the conflict. Historically, Azerbaijan has leaned closer to Israel and Armenia than to Iran, but recent statements indicate a strong desire to remain uninvolved in the war.

The war could even pave the way for closer relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. After decades of territorial disputes, the two neighbors last year agreed to end hostilities, normalize relations and respect each other’s territorial integrity. This agreement began to break a long-standing impasse in the South Caucasus and created an opportunity for a broader framework of regional cooperation, one that Turkiye, Armenia and Azerbaijan are keen to protect from the fallout of the war.

Therefore, it is possible that we may see closer coordination among Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkiye in response to the ongoing war. For the first time in their history, neither Turkiye and Armenia nor Armenia and Azerbaijan view each other as adversaries. All three states are prioritizing diplomacy over confrontation.

Although the process remains fragile, the commitment is visible in the diplomatic tone they have adopted toward one another and toward Iran. For instance, all three capitals have expressed condolences over the death of Iran’s supreme leader and have called for de-escalation near their borders. This was a significant attempt to signal their neutral position in the war.

However, concerns over the potential spillover of the war into the South Caucasus remain. To navigate the crisis and preserve regional stability, Ankara, Yerevan and Baku may need to move closer together, adopting cautious neutrality while working to prevent the conflict from spreading to their region.

• Dr. Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye’s relations with the Middle East. X: @SinemCngz