How Egypt, Syria are shaping Turkiye’s strategic outlook

The past two months have brought a flurry of developments in Turkiye’s relations with both Egypt and Syria. Although these are separate bilateral tracks, when viewed together they reveal that Ankara’s growing ties with Cairo and Damascus have become a pillar of its southern regional policy.

Egypt and Syria occupy different, yet equally important, positions in Turkiye’s regional strategy. While Ankara’s relations with the two countries have undergone years of tension, the current status of their ties points to more than just bilateral political relations.

Last week, Turkiye and Egypt signed a letter of intent establishing a framework for defense industry cooperation. The agreement came during the visit of Egyptian Defense Minister Ashraf Salem Zaher to Turkiye, the first such visit since 2013. His trip came only two weeks after Turkish Chief of the General Staff Gen. Selçuk Bayraktaroglu visited Cairo, where he attended the fifth meeting of the Egyptian-Turkish Military Cooperation Committee. In that visit, the final protocol of the fifth Military Cooperation Committee was signed, a roadmap covering future joint military activities. This makes the letter of intent look like part of a sequence rather than an isolated event.

Although few details have been released regarding the letter of intent, Egypt has long expressed interest in cooperation with Turkiye’s expanding defense industry. Earlier reports have said that Cairo is considering joining Turkiye’s fifth-generation KAAN fighter jet program as a co-producer and manufacturing partner. Last year, Turkish defense company Aselsan established its representative office, Aselsan Egypt. The company has signed preliminary agreements with three Egyptian companies to develop local partnerships that could eventually lead to joint production.

Military cooperation has already expanded

Dr. Sinem Cengiz

Military cooperation has already expanded. Since September 2025, Turkiye and Egypt have taken part together in at least four bilateral or multinational military exercises. In September 2025, they conducted their first joint Friendship Sea naval exercise in the Eastern Mediterranean in 13 years. Earlier this month, even before signing the letter of intent, Egyptian and Turkish forces launched the Golden Eagle 2026 joint military exercise at the training facilities of Egypt’s elite Airborne and Thunderbolt Commands, further demonstrating the growing operational dimension of their defense partnership.

This security-focused rapprochement with Egypt reflects a broader regional trend that also includes Syria. During the same week, the Turkish Navy’s TCG Istanbul frigate paid a high-profile visit to the Syrian port of Latakia, the first visit by a Turkish naval vessel since the collapse of the Assad regime in 2024, according to Turkiye’s Ministry of National Defense. In the same week, Ahmad Al-Sharaa, president of the Syrian Arab Republic, was in Ankara, where he took part in a NATO-related meeting, and held talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and US President Donald Trump.

The collapse of the Assad regime reshaped Syria’s place in the regional order, allowing Turkiye to emerge as one of the closest partners of the new transitional government in Damascus. In 2025, Ankara and Damascus signed a comprehensive security agreement that includes joint military training, institutional cooperation, and exchanges of expertise on security matters. The new Syrian army also took part in Turkiye’s EFES-2026 multinational military exercise. Syria’s participation in the military drills alongside NATO members was the first since the country’s political transition.

The visit of the Turkish navy to Latakia was significant. It showed Turkiye’s willingness to support Syria’s maritime security following Israeli strikes that severely damaged the Syrian navy during the regime’s collapse. The visit also highlighted the strategic importance of Latakia, one of Syria’s key ports and a key location in the Eastern Mediterranean, where Turkiye has significantly expanded its naval role over the past decade.

The regional order has seen a fundamental shift

Dr. Sinem Cengiz

Taken together, Egypt and Syria reflect Ankara’s efforts to consolidate its influence across both the Eastern Mediterranean and the Arab world. Political cooperation among regional actors alone is no longer enough. Turkiye, therefore, aims to move a step forward in its relations with Arab nations through closer security-oriented ties to counter threats arising from both international and regional shifts.

The regional order has seen a fundamental shift since late 2024: the fall of the Assad regime, the weakening of Iran’s regional network, Israel’s expanding military operations in Syria, uncertainty over the US-Iran war, and the growing instability in the Red Sea and Eastern Mediterranean. Ankara, Cairo, and Damascus all recognize that the evolving regional environment increasingly challenges their security interests.

Despite different priorities, Ankara increasingly views its partnerships with Egypt and Syria through the same strategic logic: strengthening its security architecture along its southern flank, while expanding its influence across the Arab world. In this sense, Egypt anchors Turkiye’s western southern front in the Eastern Mediterranean, while Syria constitutes its immediate southern security frontier. Together, they shape Ankara’s evolving regional strategy, one that places defense and military cooperation at the center of its engagement with these countries. Turkiye, therefore, is pursuing the same pattern with both states: institutional military dialogue, joint military activities, and defense-industrial collaboration.

Despite their differing priorities, Egypt and Syria share a growing perception that stronger defense relations with Turkiye, a significant NATO member country with a rapidly growing defense industry, are a necessity to maintain their place in the same strategic space. If sustained, this trilateral convergence could influence the balance of power across the Eastern Mediterranean and wider Middle East.

Yet, it is important to keep in mind that Turkiye and Egypt still have differences regarding the Eastern Mediterranean, while the situation in Syria remains fragile. As a result, both Cairo and Damascus need to carefully balance their relations with other regional actors, while deepening their security ties with Ankara.

• Dr. Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye’s relations with the Middle East. X: @SinemCngz