THE Iraqi province of Anbar, which lies to the west of Baghdad and leads to the border with Syria, has been the scene of momentous historical events over the last decade. It was the site of fierce resistance to US forces and later a short-lived alliance between the insurgents and the US. Today Anbar is the site of Sunni opposition to the Shiite government in Baghdad and of Al-Qaeda-linked groups that are fighting Shiite governments in both Syria and Iraq. Initial stages of the campaign for Anbar are under way in the cities of Fallujah and Ramadi, with broader operations to follow for weeks if not months to come.

The battle of Anbar will be politics by other means and it will shape the future of Syria and Iraq as unified countries and of Al-Qaeda franchises in the region as well. There are three principal actors in Anbar: The Baghdad government, the Sunni of the province, and Al Qaeda. Each of them has their own objective.

The ouster of Saddam Hussein inverted Iraq’s power structure that dated back to the 1920s when Britain imposed a Sunni ruling bloc that controlled the army and state. With the US invasion of 2003 the Sunni minority suddenly became a marginalized minority, mistrusted by the ascendant Shiite majority. The new political arrangement has led to Sunni demands for greater participation — and sometimes for autonomy if not independence. It has also led to the re-emergence of Al-Qaeda. The Baghdad government worries about maintaining Iraq as a unified country — with good reason. Countries throughout the region — Syria, Yemen, Libya, Somalia and Sudan — are breaking up or already have. Iraqi Kurds have all but declared independence from Baghdad and are now exporting their considerable oil resources through their own pipeline system, not that of the Iraqi state. The Sunni of Anbar are increasingly restive and several other provinces, even Shiite ones, wish to establish their autonomy if not more. The Baghdad government will approach events in Anbar with an eye toward retaining it as part of Iraq – a difficult undertaking at this point. It has three options.

First, it can refrain from risking its fledgling army and allow Al-Qaeda organizations to run roughshod over Anbar or parts of it. This will lead to local opposition and in time to reluctant recognition of the advantages of the relatively tolerant Baghdad government.

Second, Baghdad can allow Sunni militias to wage what would likely be a protracted war against Al-Qaeda, leaving devastated urban landscapes and shattered economic relations that could only be rebuilt with the help of Baghdad’s oil-based subsidies.

Third, Baghdad can direct its own army against Al-Qaeda organizations but with the same devastation and need for reconstruction aid, which will tie Anbar to Baghdad.

The grim strategic situation facing Iraqi Sunnis today parallels that of 10 years ago when they were beset by powerful enemies in Al-Qaeda but also US troops and Shiite militias. The solution, albeit a short-lived one, came by allying with US troops in the Anbar Awakening. Of course, this option is no longer available as the US will never send ground troops back into Iraq. Three options remain.

First, the Sunnis can ally, if only briefly, with Al-Qaeda. The two forces once jointly fought the US, and both oppose the Shiite government in Baghdad.

However, Al-Qaeda over the years has greatly angered Anbar tribes, especially the vast and militarily powerful Dulayim confederation.

Second, Anbar Sunnis can request financial and military assistance from the Shiite government. Baghdad will be wary of such support as it could strengthen Sunni tribes and militias, not only against Al-Qaeda but also against Baghdad, setting the stage for a war of independence.

Third, a longer-term option may emerge as Anbar Sunnis ally with Syrian counterparts in anti-Assad rebel movements who can no longer hold the cities along the Mediterranean coast and must retreat to the border with Anbar. Such an alliance could develop into an autonomous region straddling the Syria-Iraq border, independent of both Damascus and Baghdad.

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