
Despite sporadic protests by Muslim Brotherhood (MB) supporters, Egypt managed to pass an important milestone last week when it successfully held a two-day constitutional referendum. The poll was one of the main objectives of the military drawn road map that was issued following last July’s overthrow of President Muhammad Mursi. It now opens the way for another major goal, which is to hold fresh presidential vote, in March, to be followed by new legislative elections.
But turnout for the constitutional referendum was less than what was expected by the media and polls: At about 39 percent of those eligible to vote. Still the result was an overwhelming “yes” for the new constitution sending a message that Egyptians wanted stability and security, six months after the overthrow of Mursi. It was a blow to the Muslim Brotherhood and those who support them since more people turned out to vote for the new constitution than in 2012, when the MB drafted its own basic law.
Everything is relative really as Egypt inches slowly toward restoring full democratic rule while recovering from the tumultuous events that marked the three years following the unseating of former President Hosni Mubarak. The election of Mursi divided the Egyptians even when he was celebrated as Egypt’s first freely elected leader. Eventually his contentious policies and accusations of serving his followers at the expense of the rest of citizens forced the army to step in to save the country. A new figure emerged on the scene; that of the army’s top man Gen. Abdel Fattah El-Sissi. He has become the central figure in Egyptian politics and his popularity has reached record levels as he contemplates calls to run as president in March.
He is expected to make his decision soon and pundits believe he will contest the presidential elections. Egypt needs a strong leader now and while the lofty goals of the Jan. 25 uprising may have been sidestepped, the priority now for most Egyptians is the restoration of stability and the defeat of terrorism.
Those who believe that Egypt has rid itself of six decades of military rule will be disappointed. The military establishment will continue to play a central role in Egyptian political life. The new constitution has given unprecedented privileges to the military establishment and the defense minister. And those who think that the June 30 demonstrations against Mursi’s rule have underlined the goals of the Jan. 25 uprising are also wrong. The fact is that a new course has been set for the country; one that resurrects the so-called “deep state” with its ruling and influential elites who are allied with the military. It is not unlike the era of Mubarak when an authoritarian clique governed through artificial democratic institutions.
It is also a disappointment to a generation of young and secular Egyptians who constituted the driving force behind the uprising that eventually toppled Mubarak.
But the majority of Egyptians is tired and wants stability. They are now willing to overlook the reinstatement of the military’s rule in return for an end to chaos and economic stagnation. They also know that a strong military is the only answer to spreading terrorist attacks that are slowly moving from far-away Sinai and into the heart of the Nile Valley.
El-Sissi knows that his decision to run for president will be greeted by millions. He had hoped that a big turnout for the referendum would justify his decision. So far his candidacy is the only realistic scenario for the future. But if he decides not to run, the political stage will have to be rearranged. There are no strong candidates who can create a popular surge and unify Egyptians. Political parties are small and ineffective and with the absence of the Islamists none of the remaining players can rally the crowds. There is a sense of urgency about concluding the goals of the roadmap and restoring legitimate institutions. The military-backed transitional government has failed to alleviate economic burdens that have become Egyptians’ most important concern.
Naturally, El-Sissi knows that moving to the presidential palace will not end Egypt’s huge challenges. His soaring popularity today may suffer a year or two from now if his government fails to revive the economy or defeat the terrorists. But this is a price he must be ready to pay.
The path toward completing the goals of the roadmap is open now and in few months Egypt will move into a new post-Islamist era.
- Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.
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