Anyone covering the peace talks on Syria in Geneva would be struck by the contrast in the tranquil ambiance of the UN’s Palais des Nations and the scenes from the ravaged land. The presence of rebel group representatives also adds to the surreal negotiations but the talks are at least holding much against the fears that they would never have reached this far.
The withdrawal of troops by Russia from Syria in response to a UN call as a precursor to the talks between Assad’s regime and the HNC rebel umbrella has certainly made things easier and Putin has managed to grab the initiative with this move as well as move on the chessboard from villain to valiant peace initiator.
It will come as no surprise, therefore, if the Western nations led by the US begin to worry a bit about any ulterior motive in an agreement that they would see as just too facile and accommodating.
Perhaps, the Putin move is a strategically smart one designed to extricate Russia from a sticky wicket and also cover oneself with glory as a far thinking statesman. That moving off would also ease pressure on the Russian exchequer is a bonus. For Putin the present equation is a win-win one.
Whatever the misgivings in the west and a momentary loss of prominent positioning on the Syrian talks Washington can take heart that peace is at least producing a tendril of hope.
Russia has also indicated to President Assad that it does not intend to upgrade its military support and, is in fact backing off. This is direct pressure on Assad to be more flexible regardless of the amount of face-saving cosmetics he might put on it. Without tacit Russian presence and support for Assad the rebel groups will believe they have a certain ascendency in the ongoing discussions.
The Assad government and the HNC, the umbrella group for the opposition, have an inimical relationship at best but it is cemented broadly by their common hostility to the Daesh. This shared purpose and the threat that the mutual foe signifies could well be the adhesive which is being sought.
Although progress is painfully slow in Geneva and no profound solution is immediately expected, the gamesmanship on this chessboard has changed and the next move has to be from Assad himself or else the calm waters of Lake Geneve could well become storm tossed.
All the sides know that if they do not soldier on, there may be no second chance and if the ring does not come around again there could be no country left to fight over.
