WHILE major national and regional political parties are bracing for five assembly polls — in four states of Kerala, West Bengal, Assam and West Bengal and the union territory of Puducherry — in the coming weeks and the results will be out on May 19, another important Indian state is having a countdown for premature polls. This state is Jammu and Kashmir.

Jammu and Kashmir has been in a political logjam for quite some time. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) have together ruled the Indian state for close to a year but their sense of togetherness went up in the air when PDP leader Mufti Mohammed Sayeed, who was the chief minister of the state till last year, died.

Mufti’s death left a political vacuum as his successor and daughter Mehbooba Mufti decided to play hardball with the BJP and has since then refused to form a coalition government with the BJP.

Things are bound to take a nasty turn as the state, presently under Governor’s rule on account of the political logjam, may be staring down the barrel for fresh elections. As per the Constitutional requirements, the state has to have a government by April 9 and if that doesn’t happen the state may well have President’s rule and fresh elections soon.

As per the constitutional parameters, Jammu and Kashmir can have Governor’s rule for a maximum of six months and if the political impasse continues the state will have to be put under the President’s rule for the next two years.

This is what Jammu and Kashmir seems to be heading to. Mufti’s defiance has come as a big jolt to the BJP, which had for the first time in its history and in the history of India since its independence in1947 formed a government in India’s only Muslim-majority state last year.

The BJP’s rise had defied all political and demographic logic considering that the Hindu nationalist party like the BJP became a part of the ruling coalition in a state where the Muslims constitute over 74 percent of the total population. This happened only because of the unprecedented Modi wave.

But Mufti’s revolt signifies that Modi’s pre-eminent position is under threat. It shows that he is no longer the go-to politician that he was till last year.

Mufti could have easily become the chief minister and enjoyed the fruits of the top political post in the state for the first time. She could have done so for the remainder of the Jammu and Kashmir assembly tenure for the next five years. By the way, Jammu and Kashmir is the only Indian state to have an assembly tenure of six years while the rest of Indian states have a tenure of five years only.

But Mufti has consciously rejected the CM’s chair, which was at her beck and call. She has played a smart politician much more mature than her years.

She has given a long list of her demands to the BJP and insisted that all of these are implemented in a transparent and time-bound manner. She did not melt in the past few weeks even though when she was offered a meeting with none other than Modi. This offer was made to her not once, but twice.

This makes Mufti’s strategy clear. She has been pushing the envelope with the BJP and making such demands which are like “Heads I win, tails you lose” kind of scenario.

The BJP can never accede to such demands — whether it is about beef or intolerance or the PDP amplifying its stand on issues like sedition. And the wily Mufti knows that.

Against this backdrop, it is but natural that the political logjam in Jammu and Kashmir is set to be a long-drawn affair. Mufti is obviously playing for a much longer term. She knows that it was not she but her late father who made the PDP the single-largest party in the state.

She knows that her party’s alliance with a saffron party like the BJP will be suicidal for her in the next elections whenever these are held. That’s why she is implementing a long-term strategy of sacrificing today for a better tomorrow.

Mufti’s conduct points a finger to Modi’s acceptability among the Muslim community. He was embraced by his contemporaries like Mufti Sayeed but the GenNext, represented by Mehooba Mufti is wary of Modi.

The moral of the story is simple. Modi’s charisma is on the wane and the Mufti factor highlights it all the more.