Despite the huge protests against his government and mounting calls for resignation, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has refused to budge. The key question now is, will he be able to survive for long with an image profusely tainted because of the unprecedented crisis stemming from vote-rigging allegation?
Instead of taking steps to address the issue, Sharif chose to remain indifferent. The principles of wisdom and political acumen, necessary for successful governance, has been missing from his way of working, which finally landed him in trouble.
The PML-N, running the government for the third time, started off well by taking along friends and foes. The please-all policy, pursued by Asif Zardari during the People’s Party rule between 2008 and 2013, became a guideline for him too but gradually some sort of arrogance became evident.
There were rumors about new groupings in the Cabinet, partly corroborated by the dissent aired publicly by his closest aide, Chaudhry Nisar. Also, because of Sharif’s inability to address micro-level problems, discontent spread among the common man. This provided an opportunity to the cricketer-turned politician Imran Khan heading Tehreek-e-Insaaf party and Tahirul Qadri, heading Pakistani Awami Tehreek, to mobilize people for long march to the capital city of Islamabad.
Sharif, taking things lightly and boasting about building mega projects and infrastructure for the country, realized far too belatedly that he was in the middle of a massive agitation against him. Learning from the previous experience of antagonizing then Army Chief Gen. Pervez Musharraf, who staged a coup against him in 1999, Sharif tried to be friendly with the new army chief, but in the opinion of many, failed to realize that Gen. Raheel Shareef is a professional soldier. He was least interested in politics and also according to insiders considered Pervez Musharraf his mentor.
Army had made it clear that Musharraf need not be tried, but Sharif’s decision to try the former army chief for treason was the primary cause of friction between the civilian administration and the military. Luckily for Sharif, the gulf never widened and both went on smoothly until the two well-coordinated long marches changed the situation.
As the siege of the country’s capital continued for longer than anticipated, the army had to take the driving seat. Sharif realized that his efforts to keep the military chief happy failed to pay off. Also seeing the police chief’s defiance to crack down on protesters in Islamabad and army’s refusal to take control of the high security “red zone,” Sharif had little option left. His political authority to govern the country dwindled and the army now seems to be back in the game.
Although the army chief’s two major statements helped in melting the ice as both Imran and Qadri agreed to negotiations, the question however remains how long will Sharif survive. Some observers say mid-term elections and probe into last year’s polls rigging allegations will have to be considered. Whether Sharif acknowledges or not, things are now definitely not under his control.
A carefully chosen caretaker government and a new election commission with superior court judges of high integrity can change the political scenario of the country. Sharif brothers, accused of corruption and of politicizing the police have lost face during the campaign launched by Imran and Qadri.
Chances of Sharif winning elections are extremely low and if tainted politicians are barred from parliamentary elections, the PML-N may be a victim of its own misdoings.
Another vital question is of picking candidates for a caretaker government at the center and in provinces and also the tenure of the interim setup.
What is going to happen in the coming few weeks or months is hard to predict. However, as things stand today, army will likely be calling the shots but would avoid taking over responsibility of state governance because of the unanimity among politicians that parliamentary democracy has to be protected at all costs.
