Millions of Pakistanis are in dire economic straits. New surveys released this month indicate that nearly 2 million households sold their home items in July to ward off hunger. Two-thirds of those surveyed said they no longer trust the government would help them thorough the COVID-19 emergency. Pakistan is teetering on the verge of a humanitarian crisis of monumental proportions.
The crisis is a three-headed hydra — a rapidly collapsing economy fueled by poor governance, the coronavirus outbreak that is straining the already shambolic health system, and snowballing unemployment that is feeding hunger.
Even before the coronavirus went on a rampage in Pakistan in early March, the government had put the country well on its way to the worst ever economic performance in decades.
Four months later it is official: Pakistan’s annual economic growth rate has nosedived from an envious 5.8 percent when the current government took office two years ago, to below zero percent now — the worst in South Asia.
Pakistan now has the dubious distinction of being among the top 15 countries housing the highest numbers of virus-infected victims. Almost 10 million jobs were lost even before the pandemic helped contract the economy further, slicing off an additional 10 million.
The social impact of this is devastating. Poverty has exploded. This is evidenced by one Gallup survey revealing that nearly 2 million lower and lower-middle income households have been selling off their hard-earned utilities such as motorcycles, television sets, washing machines and refrigerators to pay mounting rent, energy, food and health care costs.
Pakistan is staring at some bitter choices on what kind of future it wants. Even before the economy tanked, nearly 40 percent of Pakistan's population — 85 million people – were living below the poverty line. This number has grown after COVID-19. Human security has to become a priority over all other prestige state projects.
Adnan Rehmat
With jobs going with the wind after anti-coronavirus shutdowns lasting over 100 days, the government quickly stitched together a cash handout initiative for about 10 million poorest of the poor, but this was a meagre Rs15,000 ($90) for an average of six people for two months. Now they have run out of money again and the government is scrambling — and struggling — to extend the assistance program.
But others are getting affected too. Now millions of people a little higher up in the pecking order are also finding out that their jobs are gone and are starting to sell the family silver to tide over another month or two of deprivation. What happens afterwards, if the economy fails to miraculously revive quickly, is anybody’s guess.
Pakistan’s economic growth curve flattened out much before and much faster than its COVID-19 curve did.
A major political cost of the economic and social downturn is a loss of faith in the ability of the state to look after its subjects. Another Gallup survey this month indicated that two-thirds of those surveyed believed it was beyond the government’s current capacities to help them beat COVID-19 and that they would have to do this themselves.
Seen together, the results of these twin surveys clearly indicate that even all the best efforts of the government to help people deal with the debilitating fallout of the health and economic crises have been grossly inadequate.
Something needs to be done quickly to not only help the people but also restore faith in both the government and the state’s ability to shield them against adversity and uncertainty, but the government seems woefully unprepared.
Pakistan is staring at some bitter choices on what kind of future it wants. Even before the economy tanked, nearly 40 percent of Pakistan's population — 85 million people – were living below the poverty line. This number has grown after COVID-19. Human security has to become a priority over all other prestige state projects.
Not only development budgets must increase exponentially to expand Pakistan’s social security network for its most vulnerable segments, governance must dramatically improve too. In the just-concluded fiscal year, Punjab province with its 105 million residents could utilize only 45 percent of its development budget, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province only 35 percent. Already inadequate resources are being under-utilized. This is criminal.
To beat hunger, poverty and social regression, Pakistan will have to put people at the heart of its political priorities over all other prestige projects and focus on drastically and fully improving its economic prospects.
- Adnan Rehmat is a Pakistan-based journalist, researcher and analyst with interests in politics, media, development and science.
