Pandemic calls for decisive leadership, not strongman posturing

If a list of the strongman leaders of the world today were to be made, the names of Xi Jinping of China, Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines, Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil, Joko Widodo of Indonesia and Narendra Modi of India would immediately spring to mind. All of them have built a reputation for strong leadership that they feel is capable of steering their nation out of any difficult situation, using clear and firm methods to protect their citizens while bringing about radical change in the way these countries work.

But, faced with the coronavirus disease pandemic, they have all — with the exception of Xi — fared badly. Even though the full data from China has not come through, all the indications are that the country at the root of the virus seemed to get to grips with it fairly early in the cycle. After weeks of failed attempts to cover it up, when China did finally acknowledge the presence of the virus it took immediate steps toward prevention and treatment. It famously built a 10,000-bed hospital in just over a week. It imposed complete lockdowns in the worst-hit cities and provinces and stopped transportation, even though the Chinese New Year, which sees the biggest annual migration of humans on the planet, was fast approaching. By March, Xi seemed to have succeeded in containing the virus to limited parts of the country, so he restarted industry and business in order to limit the shock to the economy.

At a time when China had almost emerged from the crisis, the virus struck other Asian nations, notably in the south and south east of the continent. Among the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Vietnam has been the surprise package. It has managed to limit infections to one of the lowest totals in the world, as the country of more than 97 million people has reported only just over 1,000 cases and 35 deaths.

But the situation among its near neighbors, namely the Philippines and Indonesia, is far more critical. Both Duterte and Widodo have been rather clumsy in their handling of the crisis. Widodo at first believed that the virus would not spread in a tropical climate and, when the virus did reach his country, he initially denied there were any cases. It was only when the outbreak began to spread rapidly that he responded. But he relied on the military to run his health care services, while all the time settling political scores with the opposition. Worried about the costs that the Indonesian economy would have to pay, the president hesitated in imposing a lockdown and waited until almost the end of April, by which time the pandemic had taken a firm hold on the world’s largest archipelago. The government also conceded that it had tried to hide the number of deaths to “avoid creating panic.” The persistent mishandling of the situation means that Indonesia has had more than 194,000 cases and 8,000 deaths. Its economy contracted by 5.32 percent in the second quarter of the year.

Across the Celebes Sea, the Philippines’ response has been equally ham-fisted. When infections in the country began rising sharply, Duterte in July began to use strong-arm tactics and put the army on the streets to ensure that people stayed at home or wore face masks. In many ways, his handling of the pandemic resembles the drug war that he has been waging since coming to power.

Despite the measures taken by Duterte, infections have continued to increase and the country has now seen more 235,000 cases and 3,800 deaths. The Philippines economy has also been hit much harder than Indonesia’s. In the second quarter, its gross domestic product (GDP) crashed by 16.5 percent — the steepest fall in ASEAN and one of the biggest in the world.

Brazil is another example of a strongman leading his country on the wrong path in terms of tackling the pandemic. Bolsonaro’s handling of the crisis has been catastrophic. Not only did he underestimate the threat to Brazil, but he has actually taken several steps that have helped the virus take a crippling hold over the country. He never called for a strict lockdown, was himself not seen wearing a face mask in public until a court obliged him to, and he has been consistently dismissive of the virus’s impact, even as the country zoomed to second position in the dubious list of worst performers in the world. With more than 4.1 million infections and 126,000 deaths, Brazil has been delivered a knockout blow. The only saving grace for Bolsonaro has been that the Brazilian economy has held up much better than others in the region and is expected to contract by only 5.6 percent this year, compared to Mexico’s 9.8 percent and Argentina’s 12.5 percent.

While Bolsonaro may have the economic activity to hide behind, this option is not available to Indian Prime Minister Modi, who seems to have moved from one blunder to another in dealing with the pandemic. It all started with a delayed response, as the government did precious little until the end of March. Then Modi committed his first major mistake: Imposing a nationwide lockdown that was the harshest in the world and lasted almost three months. With factories and shops closed, more than 110 million migrant workers, who had been working in cities far away from their home villages, suddenly found themselves facing starvation. The government’s response was patchy at best.

Soon enough, the media was filled with images of thousands of migrants who had decided to take a risk and walk home — often 1,500 or even 2,000 km away and in searing heat. After ignoring this for weeks, the government announced limited buses and trains to take migrants home. But the rush was so great that social distancing norms were forgotten and, by the time the states set up facilities to test and quarantine infected persons returning to their villages, the pandemic had spread, leading to a spike in new cases and deaths.

India’s testing rate remained one of the lowest in the world until late August, but now the capacity has reached a respectable 1 million a day. But delayed testing meant the virus had a lot of time to spread. The country has confirmed more than 4.1 million cases and 70,000 deaths, with record daily infections of 75,000 positive tests and 1,000 deaths. 

The many errors committed in these countries have given up the gains they have made in various socioeconomic parameters over the last two decades, and it will be many years before some of these losses are reversed. The pandemic has left an indelible mark on these nations.

• Ranvir S. Nayar is the editor of Media India Group, a global platform based in Europe and India that encompasses publishing, communication and consultation services.