All eyes were on fossil fuel and coal producers at the recent COP26 in Glasgow. Two subjects dominated the COP26 discourse: How to manage the climate change crisis to save the planet and how to resolve the energy crisis caused by a shortfall in gas supplies that has pushed global inflation higher.

While the former will take many more rounds of COP meetings to agree on a unified approach, the latter is seemingly entangled in politics between the EU and Russia and in complicated domestic German political factors. The German network regulator, the Bundesnetzagentur, has suspended the approval of the Russian Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, delaying the start of operations by a few months to what most likely looks now to be around the middle of 2022. This new expected date falls well after the European winter peak demand, putting more pressure on energy prices and consequently added pressure on OPEC + to open the taps for higher production, something that the alliance has so far refused to do.

The reason cited by the German regulator is that Russia’s Gazprom still needs to set up a German company that would own the 85 km part of the pipe that goes through Germany so that it is also subject to the German law, rather than being owned and managed by a company registered in Switzerland, as is the case now.

While this may be formally true, it is hard not to link the decision by the regulator to the power vacuum in Berlin while the centre-left SPD, the Greens, and the liberal FDP finish their government coalition agreement, under which the Greens are likely to get control of the economy and climate portfolios that would determine the future of the pipeline.

Running under the Baltic Sea, Nord Stream 2 will double Moscow’s gas exports to Germany but will also circumvent Ukraine, which relies on existing pipelines for income and would be hard hit by the loss of transit fees. German businesses have invested heavily in the 1,225km (760-mile) pipeline.

The recent elections have turned domestic German politics and external relations upside down, with important implications in the energy sector. The Greens have never supported the increased use of gas in Germany’s energy mix. They are also far more sober in their views on relations with Russia than the SPD, whose former chancellor, Gerhard Schroeder, is a Gazprom employee and has played a big role in its development. The German network regulator, which the EU’s top court has ruled in the past lacked sufficient independence from the government, could be using the power vacuum in between governments to assert itself as a more independent institution.

The geopolitical front is another factor looming over energy relations between Russia and the EU due to the fast-rising tensions over the migration crisis orchestrated by Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko on the EU’s eastern borders, conducted, it is alleged, with at least the tacit approval of Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, who is also accused by NATO of amassing troops and escalating tensions on the Russia-Ukraine border.

The suspension of the approval for the pipeline might also be a form of pressure on Putin to rein in Lukashenko and reconsider any potential aggressive plans against Kiev.

In addition, EU bureaucracy moves in small circles. Once the German regulator has approved the pipeline formally, the European Commission will then have to issue its own approval.

This is yet another hurdle to overcome and could further delay the project.

In the meanwhile, this is sharply driving up the price of gas in Europe and will probably continue to do so in coming months, with mounting public pressure on politicians to act more quickly. Once again calls are being made to OPEC+ to raise its monthly production. The fact that some of the alliance’s members might not be in a position to do so for technical or financial reasons leaves the burden on a few members, such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq and Kuwait.

All this could also focus minds on getting currently sanctioned oil from countries such as Iran and Venezuela back on to the market. The Nord Stream saga is proving a geopolitical Pandora’s box.

• Dr. Mohamed Ramady is a geopolitical and energy expert and former senior banker and professor of finance and economics, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, Dhahran.