With opinion polls projecting a major victory for Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) because of political tide apparently turning in favor of Narendra Modi, a lot is at stake for this party and its campaign manager (Modi) in forthcoming parliamentary polls.
If the projected speculations prove to be correct, Modi would emerge as the major winner. If not, that may spell the end of politicking at the national level for Modi. Interestingly, other key politicians in this race are caught in a similar political situation. Failure to perform well may spell political death at the center not just for Modi but also for Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) chief Arvind Kejriwal.
If Congress performs miserably in parliamentary elections, that may be the end of this party and Rahul’s political innings for quite some time. Though the Congress party has refrained from naming Rahul as its prime ministerial nominee, it is fairly clear that it is playing this card cautiously. Since Rahul is in charge of the party’s political campaign, if the Congress succeeds in returning to power, he is likely to be crowned as its prime ministerial nominee. The Congress does not want to project his name ahead of the results for if it fails to return to power, greater noise would be made about the people having rejected Rahul’s candidature as thweir prime minister than the party’s defeat.
Modi’s political drive to the center may be compared with several regional leaders who have also tried marking their presence in national politics but have proved to be a greater success in their own home states. At one time, Trinamool Congress was an ally of Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA). With the support of Congress, the Trinamool won the West Bengal assembly elections in 2011 and the party leader Mamata Banerjee took over as the state chief minister. The Trinamool withdrew from the UPA in 2012 over some differences. In the present 545-member Lok Sabha, this party has 19 members. It is to be noted that West Bengal sends 42 members to Lok Sabha. Though Trinamool is in power in West Bengal, in Lok Sabha it has less than 50 percent members from this state.
A similar point may be made about Samajwadi Party (SP), which at present heads the Uttar Pradesh (UP) state government. The SP has 22 members from UP in Lok Sabha, a state that is represented by 80 parliamentarians in this House. Likewise, Janata Dal-United (JD-U) heads the Bihar government but has only 19 out of 40 members from this state in the Lok Sabha.
Compared to 112 seats held by BJP, the Congress has 204 in the present Lok Sabha. Performance of either party would be viewed as dismal if they win fewer seats than they have at present in the Lok Sabha. It is feared that the meteoric rise of AAP in Delhi may create a major political dent for both the parties in parliamentary polls. It is to be watched whether AAP proves politically dangerous for the Congress and BJP or not. At present, AAP heads the Delhi state government with external support from the Congress. With each passing day, AAP seems to be losing support of common people and also the media because of its failure to deliver what it had promised during its campaign. It would not be surprising if the political reach of AAP remains confined to Delhi assembly and fails to make much of an impact in parliamentary elections.
Prospects of either Rahul or Modi ensuring a sweeping victory for their respective parties may be viewed as practically impossible. The rise of numerous regional parties has minimized chances of a single party heading the central government. If the Congress performs poorly, there is the possibility of it playing the same political card that it has used following Delhi assembly elections. The party may decide to let a third front take over with its external support. The country has been through this phase earlier, which has proved to be politically dismal. While Congress has not said much on the prospects of a third front government, the BJP has dismissed the possibility as an “illusion.”
The decision of the Congress to play on its oft-used “secularism against communalism” card may thus be guided by another reason. If the Congress performs poorly, this card may be used to bring together regional parties with “secular” intention of keeping the BJP out of power and preventing Modi from becoming the prime minister. And that would also prove a testing ground for the political reach of Rahul, beyond that of his own party. So far, he has been politically pampered within the Congress. If the BJP succeeds in forming the next government, Rahul would have to prove his credentials as an opposition leader. If Congress decides to support a third front government, Rahul may have to play even a greater role. That this hard reality has dawned on Rahul is marked by his having recently given his first television interview. As a political gamble it has helped him gain substantial media coverage and also that of other politicians as well as people. But this sole interview alone cannot help him or his party electorally.
If Congress succeeds in returning to power, would Rahul prefer remaining a leader within his own party or move beyond to taking charge of the next government? Whatever be the outcome of 2014 parliamentary polls, it is clear that Rahul will have to extend his political reach beyond that of being a Congress leader. If he does not, that may signal the end of his political innings in Indian politics. Similarly, it is a do or die situation for Modi as well as Kejriwal. Both are keen to emerge as national leaders. But this is not the case of there being a close fight between the three. A lot is dependent on how well the three leaders perform in securing support of voters and regional parties.
• Nilofar Suhrawardy is an Indian freelance journalist who has written extensively for national newspapers.
