That the Geneva 2 conference will not lead to a peaceful transitional government is a foregone conclusion. It seems that the conflicting parties are not yet ready for a compromise. Explicit in the opening speech of the Syrian delegation at Montreux in Switzerland is that Assad is still defiant. It does not seem that Assad will settle for an agreement that will pave the way for his ouster.
Let me say upfront that the Syrian delegation is not empowered to negotiate the removal of Assad. For this reason, Syria’s Foreign Minister Walid Muallem is most likely to negotiate in bad faith. He threatened to quit the talks unless serious talks begin. It is interesting to delve into his definition of serious talks. Muallem made it perfectly clear that the conference is about forming a common front against terrorism rather than setting up a transitional government with full executive powers.
Not surprisingly, Muallem seeks to redefine the crisis in Syria. To him, it was never a Syrian revolution as much as a bunch of terrorists supported by some foreign powers. He even flirted with the Americans reminding them of 9/11 and suggested to join forces to work with the Syrian regime. Undoubtedly, Assad regime is ready to offer the Americans more concessions — as the case with the chemical weapon saga — to get off the hook.
Fully backed by Tehran, Assad regime will hardly budge unless it feels that the developments on the ground change. Until then, Assad does not feel that there is a huge price tag of his defiance particularly when Russia is still pinning hope on him to win the conflict militarily. Assad works in tandem with Iran. Just a few days ago, Iranian President Hassan Rowhani said at Davos Forum that there was no military solution to the conflict. But this is a dishonest statement as Iran and Assad strongly feel that the conflict could be won on the ground. The reason for this statement is to mislead the world and buy time while acting relentlessly to finish off the Syrian revolution.
While the Syrian delegation views the conference as a zero-sum struggle, the Syrian opposition views it differently. Indeed, the western-backed Syrian Opposition Coalition insisted that they participated in the conference to implement the 2012 Geneva I agreement. Ahmed Al-Jarba, the SOC president, challenged if there was a Syrian delegation rather than Assad’s delegation that is ready to save Syria.
Contrary to Muallem, who accused almost everyone in the conference of “plotting” against Syria thus isolating himself, Ahmed Al-Jarba felt he won the first round. In his words, “The Syrian revolution has achieved recognition internationally.
The world has seen a people who were refused their rights for 40 years by a criminal and his family. When the people opposed him, chemical weapons were used against them. Bullets are their only answer to the voice of freedom. This regime is dead.”
Barring any surprise or last-minute behind-the-scene- agreement between Russia and the United States, the conference is doomed. Put differently, it may never convene again!
The regional implication of the failure of the conference could not be more obvious. Assad will go to the end to win. It should surprise no one if he opens channels with Israel to help him win over Washington.
There is a need for a media campaign in the West to highlight the atrocities committed by the Iranian troops.
Key regional players like Saudi Arabia insist that it is the Syrian regime’s atrocities and the practical and military intervention of Hezbollah and Iran that led to the radicalization of a segment of the rebels.
The truth is that Iran and the Syrian regime are complicit with the radicals in order to paint the revolution with negative pictures.
They believe this would change the perception of the West and therefore Assad would become a partner in fighting terrorists. Put differently, Assad and Iran will work hard to have Washington subcontract Assad to fight terrorists. I believe as of this moment the battle will be over narrative as well.
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