IMF downgrades outlook for world economy, citing trade wars

Gita Gopinath, IMF chief economist and director of the research department, at a briefing during the IMF and World Bank autumn meetings on Tuesday in Washington, DC. (AFP)
Updated 15 October 2019

IMF downgrades outlook for world economy, citing trade wars

  • Growth this year will be ‘weakest since the 2008 financial crisis,’ according to 2020 forecast

WASHINGTON: The International Monetary Fund is further downgrading its outlook for the world economy, predicting that growth this year will be the weakest since the 2008 financial crisis primarily because of widening global conflicts.

The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook foresees a slight rebound in 2020 but warns of threats ranging from heightened political tensions in the Middle East to the threat that the US and China will fail to prevent their trade war from escalating.

The updated forecast released on Tuesday was prepared for the autumn meetings this week of the 189-nation IMF and its sister lending organization, the World Bank. Those meetings and a gathering on Friday of finance ministers and central bankers of the world’s 20 biggest economies are expected to be dominated by efforts to de-escalate trade wars.

The new forecast predicts global growth of 3 percent this year, down a 0.2 percentage point from its previous forecast in July and sharply below the 3.6 percent growth of 2018. For the US this year, the IMF projects a modest 2.4 percent gain, down from 2.9 percent in 2018.

Next year, the fund foresees a rebound for the world economy to 3.4 percent growth but a further slowdown in the US to 2.1 percent, far below the 3 percent growth the Trump administration projects.

IMF economists cautioned that that even its projected modest gains might not be realized.

“With a synchronized slowdown and uncertain recovery, there is no room for policy mistakes, and an urgent need for policymakers to cooperatively de-escalate trade and geopolitical tensions,” Gita Gopinath, the IMF’s chief economist, said in the report.

Last week, the US and China reached a temporary cease-fire in their trade fight when President Trump agreed to suspend a tariff rise on $250 billion of Chinese products that was to take effect this week. But with no formal agreement reached and many issues to be resolved, further talks will be needed to achieve any breakthrough. The Trump administration’s threat to raise tariffs on an additional $160 billion in Chinese imports on Dec. 15 remains in effect.

The IMF’s forecast predicted that about half the increase in growth expected next year will result from recoveries in countries where economies slowed significantly this year, as in Mexico, India, Russia and Saudi Arabia.

This year’s slowdown, the IMF said, was caused largely by trade disputes, which resulted in higher tariffs being imposed on many goods. Growth in trade in the first half of this year slowed to 1 percent, the weakest annual pace since 2012.

Kristalina Georgieva, who will preside over her first IMF meetings after succeeding Christine Lagarde this month as the fund’s managing director, said last week that various trade disputes could produce a loss of about $700 billion in output by the end of next year or about 0.8 percent of world output.

IMF economists said that one worrying development is that the slowdown this year has occurred even as the Federal Reserve and other central banks have been cutting interest rates and deploying other means to bolster economies.

The IMF estimated that global growth would have been about one-half percentage point lower this year and in 2020 without the central banks’ efforts to ease borrowing rates. “With central banks having to spend limited ammunition to offset policy mistakes, they may have little left when the economy is in a tougher spot,” Gopinath said.

In addition to trade and geopolitical risks, the IMF envisions
threats arising from a potentially disruptive exit by Britain from the EU on Oct. 31. The IMF urged policymakers to intensify their efforts to avoid economically damaging mistakes.

“As policy priorities go, undoing the trade barriers put in place with durable agreements and reining in geopolitical tensions top the list,” Gopinath said. “Such actions can significantly boost confidence, rejuvenate investment, halt the slide in trade and manufacturing and raise world growth.”

The IMF projected that growth in the 19-nation euro area will
slow to 1.2 percent this year, after a 1.9 percent gain in 2018. It expects the pace to recover only slightly to 1.4 percent next year.

Growth in Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, is expected to be a modest 0.5 percent this
year before rising to 1.2 percent next year.

China’s growth is projected to dip to 6.1 percent this year and 5.8 percent next year. These would be the slowest rates since 1990, when China was hit by sanctions after the brutal crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrators in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square.


Struggling Victoria’s Secret sold as women demand comfort

Updated 2 min 37 sec ago

Struggling Victoria’s Secret sold as women demand comfort

  • Chairman calls time following difficult year of Epstein links and controversy over chief marketing officer comments

NEW YORK: Victoria’s Secret has a new owner. Now, the big question is whether the once sought after but now struggling brand can be reinvented for a new generation of women demanding more comfortable styles.

The company’s owner, L Brands, said that the private-equity firm Sycamore Partners would buy 55 percent of Victoria’s Secret for about $525 million. The company, based in Columbus, Ohio, will keep the remaining 45 percent stake. After the sale, L Brands will be left with its Bath & Body Works chain and Victoria’s Secret will become a private company.

Les Wexner, 82, who founded the parent company in 1963, will step down as chairman and CEO after the transaction is completed, and become chairman emeritus. Wexner has faced seperate troubles, including questions over his ties to late financier Jeffrey Epstein, who was indicted on sex-trafficking charges.

The selling price for Victoria’s Secret signifies a marked decline for a brand with hundreds of stores that booked about $7 billion in revenue last year.

In a statement, Wexner said the deal would provide the best path to restoring Victoria’s Secret’s businesses to their “historical levels of profitability and growth.” The deal will also allow the company to reduce debt and Sycamore will bring a “fresh perspective and greater focus to the business,” he said.

To successfully turn around Victoria’s Secret, Sycamore will need to change up the corporate culture, reinvent fashions and redesign the stores to make them more contemporary, experts say. Sycamore manages a $10 billion portfolio including retailers as Belk, Hot Topic and Talbots.

The management team at Victoria’s Secret essentially was designing what men wanted, and not catering to women’s tastes, said Neil Saunders, managing director of GlobalData Retail.

“The brand is very embedded in the past,” said Saunders. “It was always about men feeling good. It should be about making women feel good about themselves.”

Victoria’s Secret has an unparalleled history of success. The brand was founded by the late Roy Larson Raymond in the 1970s after he felt embarrassed about purchasing lingerie for his wife. Wexner, the founder of the then Limited Stores Inc., purchased Victoria’s Secret in 1982 and turned it into a powerful retail force. By the mid-1990s, Victoria’s Secret lit up runways and later filled the internet with its supermodels and an annual television special that mixed fashion, beauty and music.

That glamor has faded and so have sales in the last few years. The show was canceled last year, and shares of Victoria Secret’s parent have gone from triple digits less than five years ago to a quarter of that today.

Victoria’s Secret struggled to keep up with competition and failed to respond to changing tastes among women who want more comfortable styles. Rivals like Adore Me and ThirdLove, which have sprouted up online and marketed themselves heavily on social media platforms like Instagram, have focused on fit and comfort while offering more options for different body types. Meanwhile, American Eagle’s Aerie lingerie chain, which partners with women activists like Manuela Baron, has also lured customers away from Victoria’s Secret.

And in the era of the “Me Too” movement, women are looking for brands that focus on positive reinforcement of their bodies.

“Victoria’s Secret will need to empower women, not make them spectacles,” said Jon Reily, senior vice president and global head of commerce strategy at digital consultancy Isobar.

Stacey Widlitz, president of SW Retail Advisers, a retail consultancy, said that Victoria’s Secret designs in the last few years had gone in the opposite direction to what women wanted, ever sexier and poorer in quality.

And while last year Victoria’s Secret started featuring more diverse models, including its first openly transgender model, the moves fell short.

Victoria’s Secret suffered a 12 percent drop in same-store sales during the most recent holiday season. L Brands said on Thursday that same-store sales declined 10 percent at Victoria’s Secret during the fourth quarter. Bath & Body Works, which has been a bright spot, enjoyed a 10 percent increase. The skincare chain represents more than 80 percent of L Brands’ operating profit.

“The (Victoria’s Secret) brand has lost its way, while the lingerie market is not large or high growth, and has become commoditized,” Randal Konik, an analyst at Jefferies, wrote Thursday. “Furthermore, with athleisure taking over, the need for regular bras continues to wane.”

The company has also been beset by allegations of a toxic work environment and its founder recently apologized for his ties to Epstein, who was found hanged in his cell after federal indictment for sex trafficking of minors. L Brands’ Chief Marketing Officer Ed Razek resigned last August after making controversial comments about why transgender models shouldn’t partake in its annual fashion event.

Epstein started managing Wexner’s money in the late 1980s and helped straighten out the finances for a real estate development backed by Wexner in a wealthy suburb of Columbus. Wexner has said he completely severed ties with Epstein nearly 12 years ago and accused him of misappropriating “vast sums” of his fortune.

Wexner offered an apology at the opening address of L Brands’ annual investor day last fall, saying he was “embarrassed” by his former ties with Epstein.

Wexner is the longest-serving CEO of an S&P 500 company. He founded what would eventually become L Brands in 1963 with The Limited retail chain, according to the company’s website. Wexner owns approximately 16.71 percent of L Brands, according to FactSet.

Mike Robbins, a San Francisco-based corporate culture expert who has advised chains including Gap and Sephora, said the team at Victoria’s Secret would have to retrain workers and hire more people with diverse voices.

“They have a lot of work to do — within the company and also outside with the customers,” Robbins said. “The companies that are able to have (a) great culture attract the best employees.”