Can China help to end the fighting in Sudan?

Can China help to end the fighting in Sudan?
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Sudanese citizens displaced from their homes by the raging war dig small holes at the shore to get potable water at the banks of the White Nile in Khartoum on May 6, 2023. (REUTERS)
Can China help to end the fighting in Sudan?
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People salvage items from a medical storage destroyed amid fighting in Nyala, the capital of Sudan's province of South Darfur on May 2, 2023. (AFP)
Can China help to end the fighting in Sudan?
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Sudanese refugee women, who fled the violence in their country build makeshift shelters while waiting to be placed in refugees camp near the border between Sudan and Chad in Koufroun, Chad, on May 6, 2023. (REUTERS/Zohra Bensemra)
Can China help to end the fighting in Sudan?
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Smoke billows amid persistent fighting in the Sudanese capital, Khartoum, on May 4, 2023, despite extended truce agreements between the warring groups. (AFP)
Can China help to end the fighting in Sudan?
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Chinese citizens evacuated from Sudan display their country's banners as they arrive at King Faisal navy base in Jeddah on April 26, 2023. (AFP)
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Updated 07 May 2023

Can China help to end the fighting in Sudan?

Can China help to end the fighting in Sudan?
  • Diplomatic track record suggests Beijing well placed to broker peace between the feuding Sudanese generals
  • Long history of trade engagement with Sudan gives China political and economic influence that West lacks

JUBA, South Sudan: The crisis in Sudan, which began when clashes broke out between Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan’s Sudanese Armed Forces and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo’s Rapid Support Forces on April 15, has claimed more than 500 lives and displaced nearly 300,000 people over a span of just three weeks.

As Sudan’s neighbors, Arab and Middle Eastern countries, and Western powers make fervent pleas for an end to the fighting, many analysts say the Sudanese are actually looking to the East for a resolution.

China has acted as a mediator in several Middle Eastern rapprochement efforts, notably brokering the restoration of diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran in early April and encouraging the push for reconciliation between the Syrian regime and Arab countries.

Its recent diplomatic track record, experts say, suggests China is ideally positioned to play the role of a peace broker in the Sudanese conflict as well.

INNUMBERS

$2.03bn China’s exports to Sudan during 2022

$780m Sudan’s exports to China in 2021

$17m Value of China-Sudan economic and technology agreements signed in 2022

“China has more influence on Sudan than the West and regional bodies, and could work with countries of the Arab League to solve the conflict before it escalates,” Manasseh Zindo, a South Sudanese peacemaker and a former delegate to the Intergovernmental Authority on Development-led peace process, told Arab News.

According to Zindo, while Western countries have tended to impose sanctions on Sudan, China has done business with the country’s leaders, giving it a unique opportunity to help end the conflict between the military and the RSF.

“Sudanese leaders do not have much faith in the West and would be more comfortable with mediation championed by China,” he said.

 

 

Indeed, the general consensus is that China’s longstanding economic ties with Sudan, which date back to the late 1950s, give it a vested interest in brokering a deal to end the current fighting and pushing for a lasting solution to the crisis.

Over the years, China has emerged as one of Sudan’s largest trading partners, the result of investing heavily in the country’s oil industry and buying up part of the output too.

In recent years, China has expanded its investments to sectors beyond oil, such as infrastructure, mining and agriculture. It has also helped Sudan tap its hydroelectric power potential, notably by financing the construction of the Merowe Dam on the Nile River.

In the area of infrastructure, China has helped to build several major projects in Sudan, including the Khartoum International Airport, the Friendship Hall in Khartoum, and the Roseires Dam on the Blue Nile River.




This picture taken on September 15, 2022 shows a view of a building of China's National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) near the Nile river waterfront in Sudan's capital Khartoum. (AFP)

Taken together, these projects have given a boost to Sudan’s transportation and energy infrastructure, contributing to the country’s economic development.

By the same token, China’s web of investments in Sudan would be at great risk were the current fighting to turn into a protracted conflict and exact a heavy economic toll.

“Disruption of production in the country could have serious consequences not just for Sudan and South Sudan, but also to some extent for China,” Augustino Ting Mayai, research director at the Sudd Institute in South Sudan’s Juba, told Arab News.

Since the eruption of violence in Sudan last month, the UN, the African Union and several regional blocs have repeatedly appealed for calm, proposing ceasefires and dialogue. So far, however, the outcomes have not been encouraging, with mere minutes passing between the implementation of a truce and the resumption of airstrikes and small-arms fire.

The two feuding Sudanese factions, who each blame one another for the multiple broken ceasefires, are actually former allies. After the removal of dictator Omar Al-Bashir in 2019, a joint transitional military-civilian government was established, led by Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok.




Sudanese Army soldiers walk near tanks stationed on a street in southern Khartoum on May 6, 2023, amid ongoing fighting against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. (AFP)

In just two years’ time, Al-Burhan and Dagalo, also known as Hemedti, closed ranks to overthrow Hamdok. Efforts to coax Sudan back toward a civilian-led government began anew, but disputes over the integration of Dagalo’s RSF into the SAF led to tensions, which evidently reached a flashpoint when explosions and gunfire began to rock Khartoum and other cities on April 15.

“The collapse of Sudan could lead to more violence across the region fueled by the spread of weapons, such as in Libya and Somalia,” Kai Xue, a Beijing-based Africa expert, told Arab News.

Libya, which shares its southeastern border with Sudan, and Somalia, on the Horn of Africa, are two examples of how protracted civil conflicts can plunge African nations into vicious cycles of violence with damaging global consequences.




Sudanese paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) gather near the presidential palace in Khartoum on May 1, 2023. (Screen grab from RSF video/ESN/AFP

In Libya, the fall of former dictator Muammar Qaddafi in 2011 led to the rapid spread of small arms and light weapons throughout the country, which is now home to a large number of warring groups engaged in an unending power struggle.

The unchecked proliferation of arms, ammunition and explosives not only fuels the conflict in Libya but also has a destabilizing effect on the entire region. Neighboring countries, such as Chad, Niger and Sudan, have struggled to stem the misuse, accumulation and illicit transfer of small arms and light weapons across their borders.

The civil war, followed by state collapse and the emergence of armed groups, in Somalia has had a similar effect on nearby countries. The diversion and illicit trade of small arms and light weapons has been a major driver of the Somali conflict, which continues to this day.

The smuggling and transfer of weapons and explosives from Somalia have also had a significant impact on neighboring countries, such as Kenya and Ethiopia. The terrorist group Al-Shabaab, which has links with Al-Qaeda, has launched deadly attacks in both countries using weapons smuggled in from Somalia.

Africa analysts say if Somalia and Libya hold any lesson, it is that the conflict in Sudan potentially has serious implications not just for the future of the country but for that of the wider region too.




Sudanese refugees, who fled the violence in their country stand beside makeshift shelters near the border between Sudan and Chad in Koufroun, Chad, on May 6, 2023. (REUTERS)

The UN has warned of an impending humanitarian catastrophe as a result of the fighting, saying that 800,000 people are expected to flee the country. Compounding the crisis is the fact that Sudan itself is already home to more than 1 million refugees and 3 million internally displaced persons.

Sudan’s impoverished neighbors also already host large refugee populations and have been plagued for years by political and economic instability as well as natural disasters such as flash floods and drought.

“It is good that everybody is calling for peace, but there is almost a traffic jam of peacemaking when everyone wants to get involved,” Tibor Nagy, a former US ambassador to Ethiopia, told Arab News.

He expressed regret that the US did not provide more support for Sudan’s transition to civilian rule.

 

 

“I think if the US had been quicker, then maybe Prime Minister (Hamdok) would not have been overthrown,” Nagy said. “Yet, at the end of the day, the fault lies with General Al-Burhan and Hemedti, as it is now clear that neither one of them wanted a real civilian-led government.”

As for China, Nagy said the country “tends to issue good statements when there is a flare-up like the current conflict in Sudan, but it tends to stay back and wait for others to make peace, as we saw in the case of Ethiopia’s recent civil war,” Nagy said.

Under the circumstances, China’s involvement in the Sudan feud is likely to be passive, according to Benjamin Barton, of the University of Nottingham, Malaysia. Citing the scale of the crisis and the size of Sudan, he said China will wait for the violence to ebb before getting involved.

“It’s all really dependent on the warring parties,” he told Arab News. “Sometimes these conflict situations go way beyond China’s ability to intervene.”

 

 

The once laudable Western goal of seeing a civilian-led government formed to steer Sudan’s transition to a democratic dispensation seems far-fetched now. So, some in Africa hope that given its political clout and economic influence, China can at least have a mitigating effect on the current tensions.

“China could use its diplomatic channels to bring both sides of the conflict to the table,” Onyando Kakoba, secretary-general of the Forum of Parliaments of the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region, told Arab News, adding: “It should avoid taking sides, which could escalate the crisis.”

His view is seconded by Deng Dau Deng Malek, the acting minister of foreign affairs and international cooperation of South Sudan, who told Arab News: “Pressure must be exerted by all international partners (to end the fighting in Sudan), including China.”


French leader urges Lebanese parties to urgently elect new president, save country from ‘drowning’

French leader urges Lebanese parties to urgently elect new president, save country from ‘drowning’
Updated 31 May 2023

French leader urges Lebanese parties to urgently elect new president, save country from ‘drowning’

French leader urges Lebanese parties to urgently elect new president, save country from ‘drowning’
  • Emmanuel Macron made his plea following a meeting with Maronite Patriarch Bechara Boutros Al-Rahi
  • French judiciary has accused the central bank chief, his brother Raja Salameh, and his assistant Marianne Hoayek, of amassing a huge fortune in Europe

BEIRUT: French President Emmanuel Macron has urged Lebanon’s divided politicians to save the country from “drowning in crises” by immediately electing a new president.

The French leader made his plea following a meeting with Maronite Patriarch Bechara Boutros Al-Rahi.

A French presidency statement, issued on Wednesday, said: “Macron and Al-Rahi expressed their deep concerns about the crisis in Lebanon and the paralysis of institutions, which has been exacerbated by the presidential vacuum for the past seven months.

“They agreed on the necessity of electing a president for the republic without delay.”

The statement quoted Macron as highlighting, “the need to keep Lebanon’s Christians at the heart of the sectarian and institutional balance of the Lebanese state.”

The president described Lebanon as a country “drowning in crises” adding that “the political deadlock has been an obstacle to the reforms without which there can be no recovery and lasting stability in Lebanon.”

Lebanon has entered its eighth month without being able to elect a president.

Hezbollah and its allies support the Marada Movement leader, Suleiman Frangieh, who is close to Syrian President Bashar Assad, but the largest parliamentary blocs oppose him in favor of their own candidate, former minister Jihad Azour, currently the director of the International Monetary Fund’s Middle East and Central Asia department.

Agence France-Presse quoted sources in Paris as saying that, “Al-Rahi and Macron discussed bridging the gap between Lebanese parties to agree on a presidential candidate and complete the electoral process.”

No political party has the necessary majority to elect its presidential candidate in parliamentary elections. Other parties refuse to bring a compromise candidate and because of the impasse, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri has not set a date for what would be the 12th attempt to elect a president.

The country is struggling with economic, financial, and administrative crises that the caretaker government has been unable to resolve due to its inability to authorize decisions except in exceptional cases.

When the term of Lebanon’s central bank governor, Riad Salameh, is due to terminate at the end of July, another key vacancy will appear in the country.

Salameh is being investigated by several European countries and the Lebanese judiciary over allegations of corruption.

He appeared before the public prosecutor of the Court of Cassation, Judge Imad Qabalan, on Wednesday at the Palace of Justice in Beirut to be questioned about an arrest warrant recently issued against him by the German public prosecutor on charges of money laundering, forgery, and embezzlement.

Salameh’s son, Nadi, and Marwan Issa Al-Khoury, were also named in the German arrest warrant without any demand for their arrest, but rather a request that Salameh be held accountable for them.

The French judiciary has accused the central bank chief, his brother Raja Salameh, and his assistant Marianne Hoayek, of amassing a huge fortune in Europe, including money and real estate, through complex financial arrangements and embezzlement of large sums of Lebanese public funds. Salameh’s lawyers have filed an appeal against the charges.

The Lebanese judiciary is still awaiting a response from their French counterparts over the possibility of merging the European and Lebanese files on Salameh and prosecuting him in Lebanon, to avoid extradition.

Meanwhile, Raja Salameh failed to appear before a Paris court on Wednesday, citing through his legal representative in Lebanon medical reasons for his absence.


Arab League chief meets Palestinian PM

Arab League chief meets Palestinian PM
Updated 31 May 2023

Arab League chief meets Palestinian PM

Arab League chief meets Palestinian PM
  • Meeting discussed the outcomes of a recent summit in Jeddah on issues relating to Palestine

CAIRO: Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit on Wednesday met with Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh while visiting the Egyptian capital Cairo, the Saudi Press Agency reported.

During the meeting, they discussed the outcomes of a recent summit in Jeddah on issues relating to Palestine, including Arab efforts to promote international support for the recognition of the Palestinian state.

They also agreed on the importance of working diplomatically to highlight the Israeli government’s approach to dealing with Palestinian issues.
 


Eritrea releases 166 Yemeni fishermen held for months 

Eritrea releases 166 Yemeni fishermen held for months 
Updated 31 May 2023

Eritrea releases 166 Yemeni fishermen held for months 

Eritrea releases 166 Yemeni fishermen held for months 
  • First group of 115 released fishermen arrived in the Red Sea town of Khokha on Tuesday
  • Second group of 51 arrived on the same day in the coastal region south of the port city of Mocha

AL-MUKALLA: Eritrean authorities have released 166 out of 267 detained Yemeni fishermen, but have refused to hand back their vessels or their personal belongings.

Locals said on Wednesday that the first group of 115 released fishermen arrived in the Red Sea town of Khokha on Tuesday, while a second group of 51 arrived on the same day in the coastal region south of the port city of Mocha.

The fishermen were detained by the Eritrean authorities five months ago while working in international waters.

A local fisherman, who requested anonymity, told Arab News: “We sent boats (to Eritrea) to transport the freed fisherman home because the Eritrean authorities refused to return their seized boats and other property. Their sole possession is the clothing they wear.”

The Yemenis have demanded that the authorities free the remaining 101 fishermen currently being held.

Hundreds of Yemeni fishermen have been jailed in Eritrea in recent years for allegedly violating Eritrean waters, a claim rejected by the Yemenis.

The dispute between Yemen and Eritrea over water rights in the Red Sea erupted into a brief conflict in 1995 over the island of Greater Hanish. A ruling later determined that the territory belonged to Yemen.

Separately, foreign envoys in Yemen and human rights organizations have condemned the Iran-backed Houthis for abducting 17 members of the Baha’i religious minority after attacking its gathering in Sanaa last week.

US Ambassador to Yemen Steven Fagin said in a tweet: “We condemn the May 25 Houthi raid on a peaceful gathering of Baha’i in Sanaa resulting in the forced disappearance of at least 17 people.

“We stand with the people of Yemen and their right to freedom of religion, expression, and association.”

Human Rights Watch also condemned the action while urging the Houthis to set those held free and refrain from persecuting religious minorities.

Niku Jafarnia, Yemen and Bahrain researcher at Human Rights Watch, said in a statement: “The Houthis have systematically violated the rights of minorities in Yemen and show no sign of letting up on the pressure.

“The international community should stand in solidarity with the Baha’i community and exert pressure on the Houthi authorities to release the detained people immediately.”

Yemeni organizations, including the Yemeni Network for Rights and Freedoms, also strongly condemned the actions of the Houthis.


Iran further escalates breaches of 2015 deal limits: IAEA

Iran further escalates breaches of 2015 deal limits: IAEA
Updated 31 May 2023

Iran further escalates breaches of 2015 deal limits: IAEA

Iran further escalates breaches of 2015 deal limits: IAEA
  • IAEA said that Iran’s estimated stockpile of enriched uranium had reached more than 23 times the limit set out in nuclear deal

VIENNA: Iran has significantly increased its stockpile of enriched uranium in recent months, continuing its nuclear escalation, a confidential report by the UN nuclear watchdog on Wednesday seen by AFP said.
The agency, however, noted progress in its cooperation with Iran and has decided to close the file on the presence of nuclear material at one of three undeclared sites, an issue which has poisoned relations between the two parties.
The reports came days before the board of governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is due to meet to review progress in addressing the watchdog’s remaining concerns.
The nuclear watchdog said in its report that Iran’s estimated stockpile of enriched uranium had reached more than 23 times the limit set out in the landmark 2015 accord between Tehran and world powers.
As of 13 May, Iran’s total enriched uranium stockpile was estimated at 4,744.5 kilograms (10,459 pounds). The limit in the 2015 deal was 202.8 kilograms.
The report also said that Iran is continuing its enrichment of uranium to levels higher than the 3.67 percent limit in the deal.
Efforts to revive the Iran nuclear deal — which was left in tatters by the unilateral withdrawal of the United States in 2018 — have currently stalled.
The stockpile of uranium enriched up to 20 percent is now believed to be 470.9 kilograms — up 36.2 kg since the last report in February — while the amount enriched up to 60 percent stands at 114.1 kilograms, an increase of 26.6 kg.
Enrichment levels of around 90 percent are required for use in a nuclear weapon.
In a separate report, the IAEA said it has decided to close the file relating to the presence of nuclear material at one undeclared site after receiving a “possible explanation” from Iran.
The watchdog “has no additional questions... and the matter is no longer outstanding at this stage,” the report said of the site at Marivan in Abedeh county.
The IAEA had reported the discovery of traces of radioactive material at three sites not declared by Iran, in a blow to efforts to restore the 2015 deal.
The Marivan site in the southern province of Fars is the first to be addressed under a work plan agreed by Iran and the IAEA in March.
The other two sites are Varamin and Turquzabad.
Iran has always denied any ambition to develop a nuclear weapons capability, insisting its activities are entirely peaceful.


Lebanon judge questions central bank chief over Munich arrest warrant

Lebanon judge questions central bank chief over Munich arrest warrant
Updated 31 May 2023

Lebanon judge questions central bank chief over Munich arrest warrant

Lebanon judge questions central bank chief over Munich arrest warrant
  • Salameh has been the subject of a series of judicial probes both at home and abroad
  • Lebanese judge Imad Qabalan questioned Salameh over accusations of "money laundering, fraud, embezzlement and illicit enrichment"

BEIRUT: A Lebanese judge questioned central bank chief Riad Salameh on Wednesday after Beirut received a second Interpol Red Notice targeting him, this time following an arrest warrant from Munich, a judicial official said.
Salameh has been the subject of a series of judicial probes both at home and abroad into the fortune he has amassed during some three decades in the job.
France earlier this month issued an arrest warrant for Salameh after he failed to appear for questioning in Paris.
On Wednesday, Lebanese judge Imad Qabalan questioned Salameh over accusations of “money laundering, fraud, embezzlement and illicit enrichment,” the judicial official said, requesting anonymity as they were not authorized to speak to the media.
Two days earlier, Lebanon received an Interpol Red Notice pursuant to the arrest warrant issued in absentia by Munich’s public prosecutor, according to the judicial official.
Last week Qabalan had questioned Salameh, banned him from traveling, confiscated his French and Lebanese passports and released him pending investigation, after receiving the first Interpol Red Notice, issued following the French arrest warrant.
An Interpol Red Notice is not an international arrest warrant but asks authorities worldwide to provisionally detain people pending possible extradition or other legal actions.
Lebanon does not extradite its nationals but Salameh could go on trial in Lebanon if local judicial authorities decide the accusations against him are founded, an official previously told AFP.
Qabalan on Wednesday again banned Salameh from travel and released him pending investigation, the judicial official said.
He also requested Salameh’s file from the judiciary in Munich and noted that “only the Lebanese judiciary has the authority to try him,” the official added.
In March 2022, France, Germany and Luxembourg seized assets worth 120 million euros ($130 million) in a move linked to a probe into Salameh’s wealth.
In February, Lebanon charged Salameh with embezzlement, money laundering and tax evasion as part of its own investigations.
The domestic probe was opened following a request for assistance from Switzerland’s public prosecutor looking into more than $300 million in fund movements by Salameh and his brother.
Salameh, who was questioned for more than an hour on Wednesday, again “denied all charges against him” and said wealth came from private sources, the official added.
Salameh continues to serve as central bank governor. His mandate ends in July.
Activists say the travel ban helps shield him from being brought to justice abroad — and from potentially bringing down others in the entrenched political class, which is widely blamed for endemic corruption in the crisis-hit country.
His brother Raja was due to appear for questioning in France on Wednesday, but his lawyer said he was unable to attend due to medical reasons and the judge postponed the session for two months, the official added.