Pakistan’s factory PMI dips in early sign of global tariff headwinds

In this file photo, taken on June 12, 2024, a salesman uses his mobile phone as he sits under a television screen displaying the live broadcast of Pakistan Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb presenting the 2024/25 budget, at an electronics market in Karachi, Pakistan. (REUTERS/File)

• New orders slumped while export orders in particular plummeted
• Employment fell for a second month as manufacturers cut costs

KARACHI: Pakistan’s manufacturing sector growth slowed to a seven-month low in April, with the HBL Pakistan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)easing to 51.9 from 52.7 in March, as concerns over global trade weighed, HBL said in a press release.
The latest dip in the index hints at the impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs, said Humaira Qamar, Head of Equities & Research at HBL.
“We believe that the latest PMI dips are early signs of the headwinds to the global economy from the introduction of US tariffs,” said Humaira Qamar — Head Equities & Research at HBL.
New orders slumped while export orders in particular plummeted. Employment fell for a second month as firms cut costs, said Qamar.
Qamar warned that any US stagflation would hurt Pakistan’s exports, particularly to the US which accounts for 18 percent of its total, potentially prolonging the manufacturing downturn, though lower commodity prices could provide some relief, she added.
Despite the slowdown, the PMI remains above 50, indicating expansion amid a favorable inflation outlook.
Qamar said she expects an interest rate cut on Monday due to strong deflationary pressures. But a Reuters poll suggests Pakistan’s State Bank will hold rates steady at 12 percent, following a surprise pause in its last meeting due to geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns.
Pakistan’s annual inflation rate fell to 0.3 percent in April, well below the Ministry of Finance estimate of 1.5 percent to 2 percent. The central bank forecasts average inflation to be in the range of 5.5 percent to 7.5 percent for the fiscal year ending June.
Pakistan’s largest bank, HBL, and global financial information and analytics firm S&P Global launched the index In February to track the country’s manufacturing sector.