ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s headline inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), is expected to reach 5.25–5.75% in October year on year, a market research firm said on Tuesday.
This is in comparison with 5.61% inflation in Sept. 2025 and 7.17% in Oct. 2024, according to Karachi-based Topline Securities. On a month-on-month basis, inflation for Oct. 2025 is projected at +1.1 percent.
“Food segment is expected to show increase of 1.21% MoM,” the brokerage and research firm said on Tuesday. “The resurgence in food inflation is primarily on the back of supply side effect on food products due to floods and closure of Afghan Border in the country.”
The frontier was closed after days of cross-border strikes and skirmishes between the two countries, which began on Oct. 11, over a surge in militancy in Pakistan’s western regions that border Afghanistan.
Key contributors to food inflation are tomatoes (+27 percent), fresh vegetables (+25 percent), and onions (+10 percent), though fresh fruit and chicken are down 10% and 25 percent, respectively, according to the report.
The transport segment is expected to rise by 1.12% MoM, mainly due to a 2.1% rise in motor fuels, with petrol rising 1.7% and high-speed diesel (HSD) rising 2.5 percent.
In Pakistan, inflation has fallen sharply from a record 37.97% in May 2023, when global commodity shocks, energy price hikes and currency depreciation sent prices soaring.
By late 2024 and early 2025, headline inflation had fallen into single digits on monthly measures, aided by tight monetary policy, base effects and external stabilization efforts.
“With inflation expectations of 5.25-5.75% for Oct. 2025, real rates will surge to 525-575bps, higher than Pakistan’s historic average of 200-300bps,” the report read.
“A significant shift in global commodity prices remains a major variable that could alter the inflation trajectory moving forward.”
