Red Sea escalation threatens Turkiye’s balancing act

Tensions in the Red Sea have started to escalate after Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi movement declared what it described as a complete naval blockade on Saudi Arabia and intensified missile and drone attacks against Saudi oil tankers.

Following the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea has emerged as a critical maritime chokepoint. Its security has become a regional and global issue, affecting countries with major commercial and geopolitical interests, including Turkiye.

Turkiye strongly condemned the Houthi threats to impose the blockade on Saudi Arabia, affirming its solidarity with Riyadh. At the same time, with the evolving Red Sea security landscape, Ankara is expanding its engagement in the Horn of Africa, a region it views as crucial to protect its maritime interests.

The Turkish parliament recently approved a two-year extension of its military mission in Somalia. Although this is a continuation of an existing mission, the timing is significant. It comes at a moment when instability in the Red Sea is reshaping security calculations and increasing the strategic importance of the Horn of Africa.

For Turkiye, the extension matters more now because as a country with vested interests in both Africa and the Arabian Peninsula, it has major concerns over the Red Sea security crisis. Turkiye’s economy has been affected by increased freight costs, with large container ships rerouting to avoid the Red Sea because of Houthi maritime attacks.

Ankara strongly condemned the Houthi threats

Dr. Sinem Cengiz

The strategic significance of the Red Sea and Bab Al-Mandab Strait for the Turkish economy and maritime trade cannot be ignored. A prolonged crisis in the Red Sea would affect Turkish interests significantly. As a result, the security of the maritime routes has become an increasingly important focus of Turkiye’s national economic planning. Moreover, the Red Sea has become an area of competition, with several actors, including Israel, entering the rivalry. Turkiye’s growing security engagement with the Red Sea through the Horn of Africa is a response to this increasingly competitive environment.

Turkiye has been expanding its military presence to protect its geopolitical interests in both regions for some time. In late January, Ankara deployed F-16 fighter aircraft together with additional military personnel to reinforce its military base in Mogadishu. This marked the first deployment of advanced manned combat aircraft to Somalia. It also showed that Turkiye is playing a long game in the Horn of Africa as it seeks to become a key security actor in one of the world’s most critical maritime corridors.

With its rapidly growing defense industry, Turkiye increasingly presents itself as a flexible security partner capable of working with both Western allies and regional governments. As it expands its military footprint, it also offers military capabilities.

In February, Ankara sent a deep-sea drilling vessel to Somalia for what was described as Turkiye’s first offshore exploration mission outside its maritime zone. Although the drilling took place in the Indian Ocean off Somalia’s coast, it was closely linked to the Red Sea’s security environment. Because of attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, Turkiye has provided naval escorts for its survey and drilling vessels during these missions.

One of Turkiye’s main concerns is to strengthen its presence along critical maritime trade routes. This strategy extends beyond Somalia, and focuses on expanding influence over key ports in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea, including Somalia’s Mogadishu Port, Sudan’s Suakin Island, and several strategic ports in Libya.

Turkiye’s cautious tone reflects a pragmatic foreign policy

Dr. Sinem Cengiz

Should the security situation in the southern Red Sea deteriorate further, Ankara would probably be forced to respond in several ways. Turkiye has a strong interest in protecting freedom of navigation through the Bab Al-Mandeb Strait. Its military presence, particularly in Somalia, could support maritime security operations, intelligence sharing, and the protection of commercial shipping.

Ankara will also likely deepen security cooperation with Riyadh by expanding intelligence sharing, increasing defense-industrial collaboration, particularly in drone technologies, air and missile defense systems, and maritime surveillance capabilities, while also enhancing coordination on protecting critical infrastructure and commercial shipping.

Also, as a NATO member, Turkiye shares the alliance’s broader interest in safeguarding maritime security. Although the military alliance maintains only a limited operational role in the Red Sea, Ankara could contribute through intelligence cooperation, naval coordination, maritime surveillance, or selective participation in coalition maritime security initiatives should regional circumstances require.

However, Ankara is also likely to avoid direct participation in a broader regional military confrontation unless it is directly threatened. In 2024, Houthis targeted a Turkish vessel with several ballistic and naval missiles. At that time, Turkiye condemned the attack and noted that necessary steps had been taken to prevent the recurrence of such incidents, without specifying the nature of those measures.

Later, in response to the Houthi actions, a US-led coalition, with significant British participation, launched airstrikes against Houthi positions. However, despite being a NATO ally whose vessel had been targeted by the Houthis, Turkiye has maintained a cautious distance from Western-led military operations in the Red Sea. Rather than joining multinational naval missions outright, Ankara adopted a cautious tone reflecting a pragmatic foreign policy focused on strategic autonomy and maintaining dialogue with competing regional powers.

However, the situation in the region now significantly differs from 2024. Today, the Red Sea is no longer a peripheral area for Turkish foreign policy but a core strategic area where maritime security, energy interests, and regional influence increasingly intersect. Therefore, with its interests at stake, any further escalation in this key corridor is likely to challenge Ankara’s delicate balancing act.

• Dr. Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye’s relations with the Middle East.
X: @SinemCngz