Turkiye set to play a bigger role in Lebanon

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun’s visit to Turkiye last month did not come from a void. It also has significance beyond a protocol visit to a neighboring country. Turkiye is set to play a greater role in Lebanon and, this time, it has the acquiescence of internal factions and regional players.

Ankara has played an important role very few people talk about. It has prevented a clash between Hezbollah and Syrian President Ahmad Al-Sharaa. It has opened a channel with the armed group and made sure to moderate a peaceful relationship between Lebanon and Syria. Al-Sharaa was demanding Lebanon hand over Hezbollah members accused of committing crimes in Syria. In parallel, the group was accused of harboring the remnants of the Assad regime. The situation was on the brink of causing a clash but Turkiye neutralized this threat and Al-Sharaa backed down on his initial demand regarding Hezbollah. Hezbollah is still worried about a potential Syrian intervention amid growing pressure from US President Donald Trump. This makes the relationship with Turkiye crucial for the group.

While Hezbollah did not want any power to compete with Iran’s influence in Syria or Lebanon, it now sees the Turkish presence as a necessity. Its relations with Turkiye are not only important for keeping Damascus at arm’s length but also as potential protection against Israel. The group knows that the situation is not sustainable. For now, it retains the loyalty of most Lebanon’s Shiites but their support is not guaranteed if the current situation persists.

While Hezbollah did not want any power to compete with Iran in Syria, it now sees the Turkish presence as a necessity

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib

A solution is needed to end the war and for the displaced to return to their homes in the south. Hezbollah cannot provide a solution. It knows that if any settlement is to be reached with Israel, a security guarantor is needed. Turkiye, a NATO member, can provide a force that would offer security. Israel would not attack a NATO member. And it is now even less likely that Israel would dare aggress Turkiye because of the Makkah Agreement it signed with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan last week. The factions opposing Hezbollah are also welcoming Turkish influence as they see it as dimming Iran’s influence in the country. It is also much better than a Syrian intervention, which would risk reopening many wounds and plunging the country into a sectarian clash.

As mentioned, Aoun’s visit did not come from a void. The Lebanese president and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam are “putting all (their) eggs in a single basket” — the American one — according to Karim Bitar, a Middle East expert at Sciences Po Paris. Aoun would not have gone to Ankara if he did not have Washington’s blessing.

The NATO Summit was especially important for Turkiye. According to my sources, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has the quiet acquiescence of Trump, who wants to balance out Israel with Turkiye. Trump knows Benjamin Netanyahu very well and he knows there will never be peace with him as prime minister and with Israel’s insatiable appetite to expand. He is also aware of the pro-Israel lobby’s power, which will make it very difficult for any American decision-maker to cut off Israel. The best way to contain Tel Aviv is to balance it out with a powerful regional actor: Turkiye

With the Makkah Agreement, Turkiye is no longer seen as competing with Saudi Arabia’s influence but complementing it. In fact, Saudi-Turkish cooperation has proven to be very efficient in Syria, so why not also in Lebanon? On the other side, Ankara is attaching greater importance to engaging with Lebanon. Erdogan said in June that the security of Turkiye begins in Aleppo, Damascus and Beirut. This is normal, as Lebanon and Syria are the front line against Israel.

Saudi-Turkish cooperation has proven to be very efficient in Syria, so why not also in Lebanon?

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib

Israel has clearly threatened Turkiye. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has said “a new Turkish threat is emerging” that is “similar to the Iranian one.” This is natural from a state like Israel, which thrives on sowing discord among its neighbors and that wants to keep them weak and contained. It would not want a powerful state in its neighborhood that can contest its actions. This is why the relationship with Lebanon is crucial for Turkish national security.

As the UN Interim Force in Lebanon’s mission is set to expire on Dec. 31, Lebanon will face a security vacuum in the south of the country that will open the way for more encroachments from Israel. Germany last month suggested delegating EU forces to replace UNIFIL. The south was also a topic in Ankara as Aoun asked for Turkiye’s help. With the UN force set to withdraw, Turkiye will play an important role in the security arrangements that follow.

Beyond fending off Israel and the security aspect of the relationship, Lebanon is also important regarding the Eastern Mediterranean energy dossier. The maritime demarcations between Lebanon and Cyprus and between Lebanon and Syria will have an impact on energy distribution in the region. The Lebanese demarcation with Cyprus, which was conducted in 2025 without consultation with Turkiye, raised the ire of Ankara.

In his recent visit, Aoun also discussed the electricity dossier. Two tracks were proposed. The first relies on Turkiye supplying electricity through Syria. The second relies on a maritime cable connecting Turkiye with the Syrian coast and on to Tripoli. Turkiye also expressed its intention to contribute to the reconstruction of southern Lebanon.

Turkiye and Saudi Arabia have plans to revitalize the Hijaz Railway going from Saudi Arabia to Turkiye via Jordan and Syria. In mid-May, Lebanon launched an official tender to design and upgrade the railway line running from Tripoli to Al-Abboudieh in the north, aiming to connect the Port of Tripoli to the regional network, including the Hejaz Railway route. This would bring Tripoli back on to the international transport and trade map.

In a nutshell, over the next few months, we will see Ankara playing a more important policial, security and economic role in Lebanon.

• Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.