The Houthis have launched a new offensive, probably with the aim of taking the Bab Al-Mandab Strait. An Iranian spokesperson said the Houthis are independent and do not take orders from anyone. But any observer knows this is not true. The Houthis could not have carried out this offensive without Iranian military and logistical support. Tehran wants to put pressure on the global economy ahead of the American midterm elections — but Bab Al-Mandab is a red line it should be careful not to cross.
Iran’s proxies have always offered it the advantage of plausible deniability. Iran can claim they act on their own. However, it has been reported that the Houthis acted based on directives from Iran and that senior leaders from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps traveled to Sanaa to support the group. Last week’s capture of Mokha and the attempt to close in on Bab Al-Mandab did not come by chance. They are part of Iran’s escalation against Washington, while claiming it is targeting Saudi Arabia.
Tehran is trying to put pressure on US President Donald Trump before the midterm elections. It is trying to push up the price of energy, which will negatively affect the popularity of Trump and his fellow Republicans. If the Republicans lose both the House of Representatives and the Senate, the entire war could be brought into question. It could precipitate investigations into the war by Congress. Trump could still continue the operation against Iran using executive powers, but it would be much more difficult for him to navigate a hostile political ecosystem and he would face greater pressure to bring the conflict to a close.
Iran played the Strait of Hormuz card early in the war. However, its success was limited. The plan was to bring the world economy to its knees and force the US to concede. So far, the economy has shown resilience. Back in April, some experts were forecasting an economic slowdown, even recession, if the war continued past August. Oil prices were expected to pass $200 per barrel in a worst-case scenario.
However, the energy crisis triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has proven to be manageable so far. This is due to several factors, one of them being the decline in demand from China. Beijing’s imports of crude oil and petroleum-related products have dropped by about 3.6 million barrels per day, almost a third of its imports before the start of the war. Countries like the US and Japan have also been tapping into their strategic energy reserves to stabilize prices.
It is in the interest of Iran not to drive a confrontation with the Makkah pact countries or to test their patience.
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib
However, the most important factor in controlling the rise in energy prices has been the skillful management of the crisis by Arab Gulf states. With the Strait of Hormuz closed by Iran, oil from the Arab Gulf was transported to Saudi Arabia’s western coast via the East-West Pipeline. This can transport up to 7 million barrels of crude per day to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, of which 2 million barrels feed refineries on the western coast and 5 million are exported. Some Gulf oil is also being transferred via pipeline to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, bypassing the strait. These mitigation policies have helped compensate for the loss of oil resulting from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which saw traffic of about 20 million barrels a day before the war.
As America’s economic embargo on Iran was tightening, Tehran needed to play another card: Bab Al-Mandab. This is why the activity of the Houthis did not come from a vacuum.
But Iran should be careful not to overplay its hand. The Houthis last week attacked the cities of Abha, Khamis Mushait and Jazan in Saudi Arabia with ballistic missiles and drones, injuring 73 people and setting an oil installation on fire. This led to an emergency meeting of the Makkah pact countries — Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkiye — and this is why Iran should be very careful. It is in the interest of Iran not to drive a confrontation with the Makkah pact countries or to test their patience. Pakistan has warned Iran to rein in the Houthis and ensure they do not target Saudi soil again. Iran should take this warning seriously.
Despite the renewed Houthi threat, Saudi Arabia and its Makkah pact allies do not want to pick a fight with Iran. They prefer to de-escalate and exercise restraint. However, the message is clear: keep the fight inside Yemen and beware of targeting the Kingdom.
Iran needs to understand that the Bab Al-Mandab Strait is vital to Saudi Arabia. Any attempt to close it would mean choking the Kingdom economically and this is a red line. Of course, Iran wants to use all the cards in its possession to pressure the US, but it must think carefully. Playing the Bab Al-Mandab card might have adverse consequences.
As soon as the Makkah pact was signed, the three countries clarified that it was not targeted against Iran. In fact, Iran was invited to join the pact. But this could change overnight if Iran were to target one of the countries. And it is definitely not in Iran’s interest to activate the Makkah pact against it.
Iran should know its limits and when to stop, otherwise the tide will turn against it. It is better for Iran to discuss a solution with Saudi Arabia for the Houthi problem and solve the Yemeni crisis as soon as possible. Iran should also forget about the Bab Al-Mandab card and instead reach a deal with the Makkah pact countries in order to use its leverage to end the war and reach an agreement with the US.
• Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.
