All eyes will be focused on the UN building this week in anticipation of a major diplomatic breakthrough between the US and Iran. The expected “accidental” greeting between President Barack Obama and Hassan Rowhani, Iran’s new and amiable leader, could deliver the mother of all handshakes!
It would be the first encounter between the US and Iranian presidents since the 1979 revolution, which toppled one of America’s closest allies in the region; the Shah, and triggered decades of mutual distrust and hostility.
Few months ago no one expected such an event to take place. Former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad created uproar every time he came to the UN General Assembly in New York. His controversial statements on Israel, the West and particularly Iran’s nuclear program kept the two countries apart.
Failure to resolve differences on the nuclear issue prompted Washington to make direct threats against Tehran. Iran’s nuclear program and its support of the Syrian regime have polarized the region with prominent Arab countries prodding Washington to take tough actions against Tehran.
But the surprise election of Rowhani as president last June was a game changer. He is considered a moderate but with close ties to Iran’s strong spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Unlike his predecessor, Rowhani is both soft-spoken and calculating. He has sent conciliatory messages to the Jewish people and to the West, defending Iran’s right to enrich uranium but insisting on the peaceful nature of the nuclear program.
He has offered to negotiate openly and responsibly with the West. More recently he sent peaceful messages to Saudi Arabia and launched an initiative to host negotiations between the Syrian regime and the opposition.
Iran has backed the Russian proposal to disarm Syria’s chemical weapons and in an article published last week in the Washington Post, Rowhani urged other leaders “to respond genuinely to my government’s efforts to engage in constructive dialogue”.
Signs of sudden thaw in relations began to pile quickly. The White House confirmed that President Obama had written a letter to Rowhani informing him that the United States is ready “to resolve the nuclear issue in a way that allows Iran to demonstrate that its nuclear program is for exclusively peaceful purposes”.
That in itself was a major development that indicated Washington’s readiness to engage with the new Iranian leader.
And Washington is not alone in responding positively to the affable Rowhani. Last week the Élysée announced that French President Francois Hollande would meet with Rowhani at the UN. Paris had welcomed Iran’s offer to play a positive role in resolving the Syrian crisis.
Some in the US believe President Obama is moving too fast and may find himself in another diplomatic sinkhole after failing to deal satisfactorily with the Egyptian and Syrian crises. Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu has rejected Rowhani’s latest gestures and will certainly object to any kind of US-Iran rapprochement. He insists that Iran’s nuclear program is a direct threat to Israel and that Tehran is bent on developing weapons of mass destruction.
Some Arab columnists have described the exchange of letters between Obama and Rowhani as “political flirtation” that comes at the expense of Arabs. They warned against a secret deal between Washington and Tehran that would isolate Gulf countries and provide the Syrian regime with a deal that would ensure its survival.
Already some Gulf countries have criticized the US-Russian agreement on Syria. Pundits believe that regime change in Syria is no longer a US option and that Western pressure has forced the opposition to join the proposed Geneva-II conference, which will seek ways to find a political solution to the two-and-half year crisis.
It is clear now that President Rowhani’s latest advances are meant to end Iran’s political and economic isolation. So far he appears to enjoy the backing of Khamenei. Rowhani’s PR campaign is working. Symbolic gestures such as taking the sole Jewish member of the Iranian Parliament with him to the UN will have an impact. He is also expected to unveil a series of initiatives when he delivers his speech. But the symbolic handshake, if it takes place, will represent a humble start to a monumental objective; to end Iran’s isolation and resolve some tough issues at hand.
To do this Rowhani will need to overcome local opposition from hardliners. And if he is to make any concessions to the West over the nuclear program he will need to test the backing of the religious establishment as well.
At one time Iran had a similar leader who opened up to the West and sought to end his country’s problems with its neighbors. Mohammad Khatami served as president of Iran from 1997 to 2005. He was a reformist leader but he failed to make Iran freer and more democratic. Eventually the clerical establishment revoked most of his achievements. Eventually Rowhani will face the same uphill struggle!
• Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.
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