AND so the long-promised clampdown has begun. Raids by Labor Ministry officials are producing thousands of illegals every day. Anyone who doubted that the government was not serious in its determination to identify and deport undocumented expatriates, has now been disabused.

Yet there remain a number of puzzling questions. The first arises from the sheer quantity of people who are being picked up because they cannot demonstrate their visa and iqama status. What have they been doing for the past months? We have seen hundreds of thousands of expats queuing patiently to regularize their status. Is it really the case that apparently tens of thousands more chose to ignore the hugely-publicized warnings and merely hoped for the best?

Another issue is the clear impact that the passing of the grace period deadline has had on commerce and construction. Businesses remain closed or understaffed. Construction sites seem to have been similarly affected. Some commentators have said that this is largely due to illegal workers staying at home. But it is surely also consequence of the fact that expats may have had to leave the country legally but have not yet managed to return.

Now the point here surely is that the Saudi owners of these businesses have themselves had plenty of time to plan their staff arrangements. Many kafeels or sponsors have of course always operated within the rules. They have ensured that when an employee that they have brought into the country is no longer working for them, he or she returns home. But others have clearly failed in their legal obligations to ensure that this happens, preferring to let someone they have sponsored move to other employment, perhaps in return for a consideration. And there remain persistent reports that some Saudis, acting with overseas middlemen, have been prepared to act as sponsors when they in fact had no jobs to offer expatriate workers.

For any large concerns such as construction firms, with well-developed human resource departments, it beggars belief that these executives have not long ago taken all necessary measures, to ensure that their expatriate work force complies with all visa and iqama requirements.

Of no less importance, all Saudi businesses should have been working to recruit Saudis for a significant proportion at least, of the jobs that have until now been done by foreigners. The evidence is still anecdotal, but it does look as if, despite the months available for preparation since April, a number of firms have, for one reason or another, failed to prepare for the radical changes inherent in the clampdown.

There have to be concerns that in the short-term at least, the important non-oil economy could suffer some damage, to say nothing of inconvenience for customers, who discover businesses on which they rely are no longer able to furnish their requirements.

It may well be that some sort of study will be necessary of what has happened and gone wrong. There can be no doubt that many stakeholders in the process of regularizing foreign worker status have played their part to the full. Embassies have gone the extra mile to help their nationals complete the procedures. Government officials may have underestimated the number of counters and personnel they required to process documentation, causing considerable delays. Nevertheless many officials worked with a will to do their job.

Many employers have also done their best by their staff. And of course there are the expats themselves, who in their tens of thousands, seized the opportunity offered by the grace period and worked patiently through an often-challenging process to regularize their status.

What seems to have been lacking was an overall analysis of the likely consequences of the whole clampdown; a proper risk analysis that would throw up a range of economic, social and legal alternative scenarios, for which appropriate responses could be designed and readied, if needed.

It is entirely right that Ministry of Labor teams are spearheading the tracking down of illegals. The law must be obeyed. But such a stringent campaign, if conducted in isolation runs the risk of throwing up new challenges for which there is no ready remedy. Where for instance has been the build up of Saudi workers willing and able to take over at least some of the jobs that have been vacated by expatriates? The Nitaqat program lies at the heart of the present clampdown. Saudi employers have been offered a range of incentives to hire locals.

There are plenty of Saudis who need jobs. But how many are being fed now into newly vacant positions and how quickly can more be trained and recruited?