POLITICAL analysts have started speculating the possible outcome of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s upcoming visit to Russia on Tuesday to hold a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The visit is going to take place only a few weeks after Erdogan survived a failed military coup.
Interestingly enough, the timing of the visit cannot be more confusing. It takes place at a time the relations between Erdogan and the United States are strained by the fallout of the failed coup. Generally speaking, the West is not happy with post-coup crackdown. Criticism of Erdogan’s domestic measures mounted in Europe and American over the last weeks. Not surprisingly, Erdogan is not happy with this criticism. Therefore, President Erdogan accused the West and the Untied States of supporting the coup attempt and terrorism.
I think that the issue is deeper. Erdogan has for long suspected that the West might seek to undermine him. His sensitivity to any western criticism should be understood against this backdrop. Also, not only is Erdogan suspicious of the West, many of his supporters within and without Turkey point their fingers at America as being behind the coup attempt.
While Erdogan made it perfectly clear that the West supports his opponents inside Turkey, he failed to provide any verifiable evidence for such an accusation. For this reason, the United States for example is unlikely to extradite Fethullah Gulen. Americans argue that Gulen is entitled for legal rights and his extradition will be subject to a protracted investigation carried out by the Department of Justice. This position does not resonate well with Erdogan.
For Erdogan, the western concern over the post-coup crackdown and the concurrent indifference to the coup attempt itself is something that could not be appreciated. If anything, there are many in the West, who are of the view that the post-coup strained relations with the West may draw Erdogan close to President Putin. Whether this visit will signal a change of heart for Erdogan is yet not clear.
“There is this perception game that Turkey could strategically gravitate toward Russia if the relationship with the West cannot be maintained. There is also an incentive on the side of Russia to use the crisis between Turkey and the West to undermine NATO’s cohesiveness,” said Sinan Ulgen, a former Turkish diplomat.
Of course, President Putin is rubbing his hands with glee over the strained relationship between Erdogan and the West. Erdogan may wonder why leaders in the West have failed to show solidarity in times of need.
I am not sure that Erdogan will trust Putin given the huge gap in their respective positions over Syria for instance. These differences are most likely to continue even after the visit. As important as it may look, I rule out that the de-escalation will translate into a kind of strategic partnership between the two countries.
Will this visit lead to a change in the relationship between Turkey and the West? Hardly! Both the West and Turkey need each other. Obviously, both Turkey and Russia have a stake in intensifying economic cooperation but this will not be at the expense of Ankara’s strategic partnership with the West and the NATO. Turkey and the West will have a lot to lose if Turkey opts for a deeper strategic cooperation with Russia.
Interestingly enough, the timing of the visit cannot be more confusing. It takes place at a time the relations between Erdogan and the United States are strained by the fallout of the failed coup. Generally speaking, the West is not happy with post-coup crackdown. Criticism of Erdogan’s domestic measures mounted in Europe and American over the last weeks. Not surprisingly, Erdogan is not happy with this criticism. Therefore, President Erdogan accused the West and the Untied States of supporting the coup attempt and terrorism.
I think that the issue is deeper. Erdogan has for long suspected that the West might seek to undermine him. His sensitivity to any western criticism should be understood against this backdrop. Also, not only is Erdogan suspicious of the West, many of his supporters within and without Turkey point their fingers at America as being behind the coup attempt.
While Erdogan made it perfectly clear that the West supports his opponents inside Turkey, he failed to provide any verifiable evidence for such an accusation. For this reason, the United States for example is unlikely to extradite Fethullah Gulen. Americans argue that Gulen is entitled for legal rights and his extradition will be subject to a protracted investigation carried out by the Department of Justice. This position does not resonate well with Erdogan.
For Erdogan, the western concern over the post-coup crackdown and the concurrent indifference to the coup attempt itself is something that could not be appreciated. If anything, there are many in the West, who are of the view that the post-coup strained relations with the West may draw Erdogan close to President Putin. Whether this visit will signal a change of heart for Erdogan is yet not clear.
“There is this perception game that Turkey could strategically gravitate toward Russia if the relationship with the West cannot be maintained. There is also an incentive on the side of Russia to use the crisis between Turkey and the West to undermine NATO’s cohesiveness,” said Sinan Ulgen, a former Turkish diplomat.
Of course, President Putin is rubbing his hands with glee over the strained relationship between Erdogan and the West. Erdogan may wonder why leaders in the West have failed to show solidarity in times of need.
I am not sure that Erdogan will trust Putin given the huge gap in their respective positions over Syria for instance. These differences are most likely to continue even after the visit. As important as it may look, I rule out that the de-escalation will translate into a kind of strategic partnership between the two countries.
Will this visit lead to a change in the relationship between Turkey and the West? Hardly! Both the West and Turkey need each other. Obviously, both Turkey and Russia have a stake in intensifying economic cooperation but this will not be at the expense of Ankara’s strategic partnership with the West and the NATO. Turkey and the West will have a lot to lose if Turkey opts for a deeper strategic cooperation with Russia.
